Member Info for illusion

Am now working but just for clarity,
If tou look at the section of the rs reserves report the bottom section reserves before tax it states ( $m)
So the 180000 is 180000 million
Ok.

Good Morning ,
i am sorry i confused you putting the % signs in,
take them out do the calcs and you will find they are right,
also the bottom calcs should ahve read
1.807bn + 6.23479bn = 8.04 bn
but i think you get the picture.
GLA.

Good Morning LLP,
I could not find an accurate measure myself so decided to extrapolate RYDER SCOTT'S own figures,
in that way i could not stand accused of over inflating the No's lol.

Good Morning Iron ,
Firstly may i say i do not class you with those other trouble makers,
but on this occasion you are wrong.
It clealy staates at the top of the page ( company WI reserves before royalties) this documentis dated dec 2021 when working interest was 58 % it is now 85% therefore.
29,291,243 divided by 58% = 50,5021 = 1 % of WI,
50,5021 x 85% = 42,926,785 = 85% of WI,
123,307 divided by 58% = 2125.98 = 1 %,
2125.98 x 85% = 180,708 53 millions or 1.708 Billion .
therefore,
133 divided by 38 = 3.5,
1.708 x 3.5 = 5.978
6.32479 +1.708 = 8.03 Bn.
I hope this accurate enough for you.
GLA.

Good Evening Gentlemen,
Luckily for me none of you actually checked the Calculation lol,
the answer is correct the written calculation wasn't ,
it should have been,
1.8 x 3.5 = 6.3 Bn
6.3 + 1.8 = 8.1 Bn
i was trying to illustrate,
AM already must know the criteria that the banks wanted to secure ( reserved based lending )
Cuda's WI must surely and having a large part of control of the asset must have been part of it.
He stated in the IP that a target of Q2 had been set to secure this.
Even forgetting the huge ( and lowest case scenario ) number for the deeps he surely now will be able to attract a sizeable revolving loan on the 1.8 Bn reserves we already have booked.
There are so many positives to come ,
time frames are unknown but surely forward progress cannot be so far away.
GLA.

Good Afternoon Everyone,
Apologies Tiburn for the delay.
In looking for the info you were interested in I went into ,
WOGCC – more – Data site – units – by name – Barron Flats ( Deep ) - unit operating agreement,
download to open.
Although a 3 year old version of the agreement it is clear that CNOOC have a 16.6665% interest in all the sections you spotted for the delineation drills.
It is clear from the Investor Presentation that AM is going to extract maximum value form each of his drills in the initial phase of drills,
presumably each well will start as a vertical,
and depending on the results for each well for delineation purposes will evolve to dual perforations ( as we had hypothesised earlier ) into the best sands for each individual location which could also mean mixing ( Dakota and Frontier as the API of the oil is compatible) in the same well.
We know the minimum base case scenario's for the Frontier and Dakota recoveries are 104 mmbls and 29 mmbls respectively with primary recovery of 8- 10 % and that,
“ Ryder Scott has reviewed the proposed spacing of Phase 1 drilling and has indicated it will allow for the booking of 2P producing / developed reserves and 2P undeveloped reserves “,
as we go through the delineation process.

So at the end of delineation we will have a minimum base case reserves of 133 mmbls.
I decided to do some calculating using the Ryder Scott reserves report Dec 2021 ( page 15 form the investor presentation ) as it applies to Shannon and CC units.
Adjusting the light & medium oil figure to 85% WI gives a figure of 38mmbls reserves,
extrapolating this figure to,
Discounted Net Revenue Before Tax - ($M) @ 20% gives a figure of $1.8 Bn.
Dividing 133 / 38 gives a figure of 3.5.
133 x 3.5 = $ 6.8 Bn.
Therefore this by the Ryder Scott calculation is the minimum value by their estimation of reserves
before tax for the Frontier and Dakota formations after the delineation process is completed.
I used the smallest No for each calculation so as not to over estimate the figures.
So after the Delineation process is completed we should have
$8.1 Bn of reserves in total for the base case Deeps + Shannon + CC.

For people interested in the CNOOC US interests I refer you to
https://cnoocinternational.com/en/operations/americas/united-states
This shows that the land based asset other than ours was a JV with Chesapeake in the PRB
which is now owned by Continental ,
this was part of my reason for the incorrect guess @ Continental buying Cuda.
Presumably they will buy the part of their Chesapeake asset from CNOOC and if we do not buy their part of the Barron Flats would maybe be a candidate for AM's mention of a possible JV
partner ?.
Just some thoughts.
GLA.

oops,
so $1.05million /month ,not so shabby.
Sorry folks basic error ,
but couldn't believe all the negativity on such a great deal.
GLA.

Good morning everyone,
It seems to me that we have just added,
circa 500 bls / day or 500 x $70 = $ 350,000 unhedged to our bottom line ,
this equates to $10,500,000 every month.
For every 500 bl/day increase after that adds another
$10,500,000 to the bottom line .
The well test alluded to by Tiburn from the AFI document gets us circa that increase from just one well.
As we now understand AM knew the outcome of the deal from at least March 16th,
do you honestly think that the upgrades have not already begun since then.
Its simple maths and its onwards and upwards from here.
GLA.

For every 500 bl/ day increase is another

lol

Good Morning Tiburn ,
absolutely agree with all that ,
if yesterdays release taught them anything it showed with the brief spike it showed that there is a sentiment still available for good clear comms,
but also agree he must be allowed to finish the strategy he has taken over Cuda to play out in private.
Hopefully the lesson has finaly been learn't and we will see a different approach going forward.
GLA.

Nice one Sageman,
that should allay the fears of many of the doubtful.

Good Evening Everyone,
that was an interesting day.
Has our esteemed leader finally learn't the importance of clear communications.
I hope so!!!!!!!!.
It is now clear that a lot of the the carnage of the SP could have been avoided.
I am not sure who is to blame,
a not modern media savy PR firm for not warning AM of the consequences of the RNA'S as they stood , If so they should be ( retrained or removed ),
or AM'S inability to accept their advice.
IT should have been clear on proof reading the parts of the messages that would stand out.
DEFAULT and GOING CONCERN.
I would think that most of the positive minded posters on this board would have been SCREAMING at AM ,
you must clarify immediately on the day of publication.

I am of the same generation as AM,
and whilst I do not like the NOW and predominately negative POWER of modern media I accept that is the case.
So hopefully our great oilman and deal maker will now accept that a different mindset is required.
And especially in the market environment.

It no use relying on the positive minded on a Board or Chatroom to decipher it for everyone.
IT HAS TO COME FROM THE HORSES MOUTH ( to be effective ).

No news is always bad news ( or will be perceived that way ).

It is always better to confront bad news HEAD ON as( the Naysayers and Negative ) will
ALWAYS explode it out of all proportion unjustifiably,
as we have seen over the preceding days.

Any news that is not bad news is positive and ( stunts the POWER of the negative ).

These are unavoidable truths of the modern social media,
and AM would do well to learn them fast.

As HFB would say and maybe will not have to say again ( i hope ) ,
( MUSHROOM ARE KEPT IN THE DARK ),
but they are of no use to anyone until they are,
brought into the LIGHT.
GLA.

Good morning Stas ,
Lovely to see your FACTS !,
Would you agree that the court hearing is basically a rubber stamping exercise and may not even need to be heard in the full court,
as such could be a short hearing and fitted into a judges schedule very easily and therefore could appear anytime between the signing of the contract and the end of the alloted period.
GLA.

Sorry Tiburn,
was posting while you were posting ,
of course our facts will always be wrong,
UNTIL THEY ARE NOT !!!!!,
nice to see you back,
was worried as i posted a few days ago.

Conclusion:
While the financial report by E&Y is undoubtedly a professional and accurate set of accounts based on historical facts, its 'Going Concern' summary is fundamentally flawed as it is partially based on information taken from COPL's forward plans.
Those forward plans are based on events which are in progress (I e. CUDA resolution, CPR
publication).
It is a reason why financial reports which mix historical facts with forward forecasts can be misleading. Therefore when interpreting a report such as this it needs very careful reading. So in answering the question "Is COPL viable as a going concern" the answer is yes. With the information that has been shared with shareholders about potential acquisitions and discoveries, if they come to fruition those forward plans as published will be realised on acceptable terms. If they don't come to fruition then the forward plans will be altered considerably and the financing as forecast will be adjusted accordingly, but of course the E&Y report does not consider that eventuality, hence why the report is flawed.
Therefore all the believers of this company should remain calm,
the unfortunate people who panicked on friday have once again turned this share into a traders paradise instead of having 5% to play with they now have 10%+ to play with until the Cuda situation is resolved.
GLA.

AFS).
Question: Is COPL viable as a going concern?
AFS page 9 – "Going Concern"
Quote:
"There is no assurance that the company will be able to obtain adequate financing in the
future, or on acceptable terms to the company"
"The company does not have sufficient working capital and cash flows to cover forecasted
operating and capital expenditures for the next 12 months."
"With no assurance that additional finance will be obtained there is material uncertainty that
casts significant doubt on the companies ability to continue as a going concern."
Analysis:
The first quote questioning ability to raise finance on acceptable terms. The E&Y summary
referred to information from the COPL MD&A about planned future operations and capital
expenditure (capex). The majority of those future plans pertained to the 'Deep Unit' (DU)
activities, which without dispute require substantial investment.
But no weight was attributed by E&Y to the new discovery (1.5-1.9 billion barrels) as no official notice (until Jan 10) had been released. Therefore in order to achieve balanced correlation between end of year figures and the continuation of the initial operations, references to DU future ops and capex should be set aside, and a more pertinent question as a going concern would be whether COPL could continue on that basis. ( with the information provided we are unable to make relevant appraisal, only an assumption).
Additionally finance at acceptable terms to the company. In the format of the report of course it would be difficult to raise finance at acceptable terms, if not totally impossible. But the future plans are not based on the existing terms as reported up to December 31 2021. When you factor in the sale of CUDA, COPL either gains substantial additional working interest (WI) and assets, or a partner who is going to have to pay off the outstanding debt owed to COPL/SWP and then invest in developing its' new asset (they are not going to buy in and then sit back). Couple that with the 'new discovery', which is confirmed according to press releases so far, but as yet not published in a competent persons report (CPR) and that puts raising finance at acceptable terms into a whole different ball park.
When the accounts were prepared up to 31.12.21 naturally no consideration was given to the
new discovery,as not yet published, but subsequently that discovery (when qualified in a CPR) will provide substantial leverage in the financial markets and allow COPL or COPL and partner to secure acceptable term finance.

In Rutland bob so not so far away :)

I agree with you but apparently it was hidden in the small print of the covenant,
you know what they say always read the small print,
but i think Shaa's information from the company hopefully will put that situation to bed.lol

Soory Noob,
one of the Defaults was because Copl did not inform the Senior Lender of the Cuda situation,
its in the MD&A mate.

Just for information,
the default is connected to the Cuda situation,
the Senior Lender provided the waiver which will be resolved as and when the Cuda situation is resolved,and is allied to the situation from march to June and then from June to December as stated in the MD&A.
Its connection to the going concern part of the audit report is what has upset everyone.
That is just auditor covering A..E statement.
Nothing has changed beyond what we already knew.
Cuda is the bottleneck ,the sooner
it is over the better.
By the way SHAA is a personal friend of mine !
a more genuine and enthusiastic man you could not wish to meet.
NO hidden agenda ,
NO malice.
Fortunately not everybody is as cynical as you Caw Caw,
just be aware that people on this board are not always as they appear ,
i am certainly not and i suspect you are not either lol.
Keep calm everyone,
the pandomonium will pass and we will move forward as we all have hoped.
By the way did anyone notice the word Confirmed in the morning statement not said before ?
In January 2022, COPL confirmed a major discovery with an estimated total
reservoir volume of 1.5-1.9 billion barrels of Oil in Place ("OIP"), of which 1.2
- 1.6 billion barrels of OIP underlays COPL lands.
GLA.