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Good Evening Everyone,
I have been reading the worthwhile posts with interest over past days.
But todays efforts have got me to thinking especially the post by Brel (which was my kind of thinking on the JV ),
but the posts by Tiburn and Doug have touched a nerve over the last couple of days.
I thought that an RBL would probably follow the JV when AM knows how much he might need.
Now i have been enlightened to another possibility.
Could be that an RBL will precede the JV and thus denying ( the hardball playing ) senior lenders the prize of a share of a favourable JV deal?.
It might put a few things into context,
Am's lack of concern in public and also in private over the current state of the SP and the MC,
radio silence may not be aimed at us but may have an alterior motive.
Could it also be that while he wants a new and superior reserves report to gain better and larger term sheets to get rid of the senior lenders at the earliest opportunity ( and with the smallest financial gain to the SL ) as well as providing more ammo for the "long term developing " JV partner.
We have always known that AM is a willy old fox,
I have always thought this was to our advantage in the long term.
The idea that he is looking to use the PI's to his advantage has never carried any truck with me.
When we have had radio silenceses in the past there has always turned out to be good reasons for it.
I hope this turns out to be the case this time lol.
The package we have to offer in terms of location ( onshore USA ) , ( the potential size of the discovery ) , ( the potential for CCS and EOG ), and our Proximity to the major Co2 pipeline must all be in our favour.
We have had a rocky road with many twists and turns but i still believe all will be well. ( or wells literally ).
GLA.
Good Evening Tiburn,
have searched the BLM website and it is completely changed ,cannot find the details you asked for,
now the only way i could find information is via,
http://pipeline.wyo.gov/ptwprge.cfm?oops=1
enter the township & range ie,
BFU is 35 76,
CC is 35 77,
then click on the square you want ( but only seems to work for squares with wells showing ).
The information we could get previously on the BLM site seems to be no longer available ,
or at least i could not find it lol.
Hope this may help you.
B.
Good Afternoon Tiburn,
I wonder ?,
could this be why the JV negotiations are taking longer than AM anticipated.
If it is an all encompassing deal ie all the deeps assets including CC access to the remainder via the BFU as well and then the CCS aspect of the whole acreage , then is it any wonder that a back and forth talks would complicated and lengthy.
Hopefully we will all be plesently surprised at the resultant JV agreement.
GLA.
Wwal i have the greatest os respect for Bolton and Panamabob and other VLTH's on this board.
I long for the time i can discuss the party with him and Panama ( which i will definetely be attending ).
The SP is very dissapointing but is no reflection of the ASSET.
There is no doubt that there are a lot of players with different agenda's in this share,
have you ever wondered why?,
Traders playing for 5%,
Back room traders building positions that they can not yet put forward to their investors as completely risk free.
possibly ii's and HNW's who have been tipped of but will not make their major moves until our MC breaks through the 100 million barrier.
It is not for nothing there is so much interest in our tinpot little company.!!!!
All i ask is that the faithful on this board try to remember these things before joining the throng to criticise AM.
GL.
Trader i am here to make money ,
the only fundamentals i am interested in is his ability to do that.
If you think your integrity or sentiment is more valid than mine or his then so be it.
Time will tell which one of us is right.
Good Evening Wwal,
i am not trying to suggest AM is a white Knight as you put it.
What i am trying to point out that he has done a good job with the cards he has and the way they have subsequently fallen.
And i also agree that is his job to secure shareholder value.
But the journey is not yet completed.
We are still on it ,
which was my point about comparing us to the other junior oilers.
If he secures a JV with the large company on any reasonable terms ,
then he can move us forward at a much accelerated speed,
which i am guessing is what he wanted all along.
If Cuda had not gone bust we probably would have made faster progress with the BFU,
but they did so he had to try and get it .
In the meantime he made the discovery ( while we were completely over stretched to buy Cuda ).
This is my point about timing Wwal,
but look at where we are now,
still over stretched but because he got Cuda we have 85% WI in the deeps unit and 100% of the CC unit .
This is the best possible bargaining position we could be in.
The shareholder value will come from this position.
GL.
Good Evening Everyone,
Fastfood please let me alay your worries about the Federal angle,
you rightly point out that this is an important aspect of the equation.
The Bureau of Land Management ( the federal arm of the government ) has already approved a MINIMUM requirement of 2 horizontal and 1 vertical / year.
As for the coming Sage Grouse season , there is no problem drilling in the affected areas as long as you are drilling of an existing pad, it is only the pushing of dirt for a new pad in affected area's that is not permitted.
So i feel that this will not be a reason for any delays to the JV.
It seems to me that our leader AM has come for an unjust amount of criticism and derision from people who either do not have the intelligence or simply enjoy troublemaking , to understand the situation we are in.
When i first acquired shares in COPL we only had the Nigerian prospect.
If he had not bought Atomic and subsequently Cuda we would have NOTHING .
So at what ever price and with the constant struggle with restrictive finance and timing issues here we are.
After the discovery our situation became even more complicated ( but what a strong bargaining position we have ).
But thanks to AM's skills as an OILMAN and DEALMAKER we are on the brink of a bright future.
Compare us to all the other JUNIOR OILERS all you wish .
BOIL ,CLON, 88e, AFFENTRA, PETRO MATAD, PANTHEON RESOURCES etc,etc.
They would CUT OF THEIR RIGHT ARMS to have the prospects we have,
onshore USA a minimum of a BILLION BARREL RESOURCE ( with only 60% of our acreage assessed ).
Even in the very unlikely situation that the company were to fail (AND THE BONDLOLDERS ARE IN TO DEEP TO ALLOW THAT ) we would still ( and i include all the PI's that are in the 38's ) at least get there money back.
I understand that the LTH's frustration but we still have plenty to play for. ( yes Comms could be better ).
The naysayers, vicious derampers and position traders on this board can try as hard as they like ,
they will NEVER convince me that AM has not done a fantastic job to get us where we are now.
Patience still required .
GLA.
Could you please explain and or rectify the reason why COPL do not appear in the summary of share price risers at the top of every page.
We have been No 2 on the full list all morning but do not show on the quick list.
B.
Good Morning Everyone,
Once again I must commend my friend Tiburn and also those of us who were supposed to
“hang our heads in shame”.
I was working when this debacle occurred yesterday and was not even aware of what occurred until a friend from this board rang me and informed of the RNA asking what did I think.
A quick look through it and I immediately thought the same as others but had already missed the boat to sell anyway stopped working went home to study the RNA properly and soon realised that once again it was a storm in a tea cup.
I refer people to the 2022 prospectus page 10 section 1 subsection 1.1 .
the standard going concern message, this was a regulatory requirement for a company in our position,
there was panic selling last time as well but not on the scale of yesterday.
Now I must echo the thought that the timing of the announcement was at best unfortunate and the order of the message bad news first and good news tacked on the end was even more unfortunate.
I do not know the regulations regarding an FCA official requirement did it have to be announced when both markets were open ???.
If it had been announced after the close, time to digest the full implications of the announcement on this board maybe a lot of people would have been spared the terrible losses that then occurred.
Now the people who should “hang their heads in shame “ are the constant snippers and position traders who frequent this board ,
with there drip drip constant unsubstantiated negativity and have caused such pain to many.
I make no apology for trying to use the information available to highlight my thoughts.
There was very little in the RNA that we did not know,
our interpretation of that knowledge is what caused the panic.
“In addition to securing financing from debt and equity capital markets, the Company confirms that it is actively negotiating terms for a joint venture for the long-term development of its Wyoming assets. The Company plans to announce the detailed terms as soon as they are agreed.”
This is the only part of the RNA that should have been highlighted,
“long term development”
“as soon as they have been agreed.”
So they are not in for just delineation they are coming for the full ride!
And also not IF they are agreed but “WNEN “!!!!.
I will not finish this post with my normal finish as it does not seem appropriate today.
Good Evening Everyone,
Congratulations to HH1983 for the best post of the day,
clearly someone who has a balanced understanding of the situation.
May i also add that a common criticism is over the hedges.
If people think back to when we acquired Atomic WTI was $39/bl.
At the time none of us could have predicted the way the price of oil would have increased so disadvantageously against us,
and in any case it was part of the agreement with the senior loan and therefore out of AM's control.
At the first opportunity he has managed to get us out of the hedge for 6 month's, and tacked it on to the end of the deal.
I am sure he has done this because he is confident that the hedges will be bought back before this time comes.
Although our prospects have never been better the strangle hold of the senior loan has held us back all the way.
We have always been strapped for cash it is true and the method of financing the CUDA deal has been unpalatable to some,
if we had not got it we would be in a far less strong bargaining position visa vee the JV negotiations.
There are some people on here who think they could have arranged better financing to get us where we are now ,
i disagree.
To have any possibility of gaining any form of RBL AM had to secure financing which was not guaranteed by our assets
he achieved that with the bondholder deal,
as he explained at the time he could not have obtained RBL for another year with a bridging loan secured against our assets.
There have been criticisms of missed timelines on the subject of timelines of the RBL which is why i enjoyed HH1983 's post so much he put the situation in a nutshell.
On the subject of the RS report all the information we need as PI's is revealed in the investor presentation,
if it was not correct i am sure Ryder Scott would have not allowed their reputation to be impuned by untruths,
i am glad he did not publish the full report,
it would only have allowed the naysayers to pick it apart and find fault .
All we need to know is that the LARGE COMPANY will have seen it and obviously see merit in it or we would not even be in negotiations with them .
So let the man do his job,
we know from his past that he is a man who likes to move as quickly as possible.
I believe all will be well.
Let us hope that a small improvement in the performance of the BFU may signal good times to come.
GLA.
Good Afternoon Tiburn and Everyone,
Here another one to add to your previous post.
https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/newsroom/news-releases/2022/0627_exxonmobil-and-cnooc-and-shell-pursue-carbon-capture-and-storage-hub-in-china
So there are many reasons why if Exxon is the large company that a good deal for the 15% would suit both parties.
Great explanations from ED about the explaining the good news about the first CC recompletion .
I hope everybody has taken in his clear explanations of the process.
Onwards and Upwards.
GLA.
Good Morning Everyone,
May i add a little detail to this mornings posts on the subject of enhanced recovery and Carbon Capture and Storage.
According to the Wyoming Geological survey there are 60 historical wells listed at CC,
currently there are 19 listed to SWC as usable of which we are producing from 6.
Therefore there is already plenty of storage capacity for C02 avaliable at Cole Creek ,
with the main C02 pipeline to Salt Creek passing only 22 miles away and the Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute data that shows there are already plans in place to extende the network in our direction ,
it could be that CC was already in the thoughts of somebody as a potential repository.
These plans were already being discussed before the deeps discovery was made and the Frontier 1 potential at CC became apparent.
For me these are also big picture pointers to the direction of travel for our fields over the short ,medium and long term.
GLA.
Good Morning Harry,
May i respectfully point out to you that Exxon already have an investment in a JV with CNOOC,
to build a large CO2 CCS plant in China,
this a multi billion $ project ,
the thought had crossed my mind that maybe Exxon could get the 15% from CNOOC at an advantageous price because of this as CNOOC had already expressed the wish to divest itself of its US assets.
Another potential piece to a very complicated jigsaw.
GLA.
Good Morning Tiburn and Everyone ,
i have to say i think that summation is almost precisely my thinking also.
ITTD makes the interesting observation that even from our lowly production at the moment with the hedge holiday we will almost certainly be profitable by the end of Q2.
Therefore any improvements to production via the re-completions or upgrades to the BFU will make the companies position look so much stronger.
The markets in their wisdom seemed always to have priced in the negatives here and none of the positives so the good news for us as PI's is there is only really upsides to come.
the importance of a NAME attached to any version of a JV staged or otherwise will have an instant and transformative impact on the company the SP and all future prospects.
Tha fact that the much maligned bondholders have remained firm is evidence that they believe they are on to a good thing, and therefore we should remain confident that our research and the local ( wyoming ) and global situations are very much in our favour.
I know that the patience of some including my own have been tested to the MAX at times but i always remind myself that the fundamentals do not decieve, all our problems and prospects are interconnected and the good new we are all hoping for will probably come in short order as one comprehensive RNA or maybe several over a short period .
Either way hopefully by enough cash in a JV to get rid of the onerous terms of the senior lender or or the power of the JV to allow restructering of our debts we will be on our way.
Keep the faith a little longer LOL.
GLA.