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Good Morning Tiburn and Everyone ,
i have to say i think that summation is almost precisely my thinking also.
ITTD makes the interesting observation that even from our lowly production at the moment with the hedge holiday we will almost certainly be profitable by the end of Q2.
Therefore any improvements to production via the re-completions or upgrades to the BFU will make the companies position look so much stronger.
The markets in their wisdom seemed always to have priced in the negatives here and none of the positives so the good news for us as PI's is there is only really upsides to come.
the importance of a NAME attached to any version of a JV staged or otherwise will have an instant and transformative impact on the company the SP and all future prospects.
Tha fact that the much maligned bondholders have remained firm is evidence that they believe they are on to a good thing, and therefore we should remain confident that our research and the local ( wyoming ) and global situations are very much in our favour.
I know that the patience of some including my own have been tested to the MAX at times but i always remind myself that the fundamentals do not decieve, all our problems and prospects are interconnected and the good new we are all hoping for will probably come in short order as one comprehensive RNA or maybe several over a short period .
Either way hopefully by enough cash in a JV to get rid of the onerous terms of the senior lender or or the power of the JV to allow restructering of our debts we will be on our way.
Keep the faith a little longer LOL.
GLA.

Good Morning Tiburn,
of course you are absolutely right a JV will happen,
here's a thought to keep everyone excited.
For every piece of data that either hints or confirms the numbers we already have,
THE ENTRY PRICE FOR THE CURRENT LARGE COMPANY OR ANY OTHER LARGE COMPANIES THAT MAY BE INTERESTED GOES UP !!!!!!!!.
Chances for discoveries of this size and in a safe amd easily accessable location are few ,
Someone will want to take full advantage of this.
GLA

Good Morning Everyone,
John if you must come on here spouting about Afentra then perhaps you should study there RNA's more carefully i did months ago. !!!
Firstly they bought or are trying to buy the 2 assets with cash. ( supposed to be completed in Dec but now put back to Q1 23.
They secured an RBL yes , but it will be used to cover the fact that due to their small working interest they will have to wait to be paid for there share of production.
So if you must come on here trying to knock and denegrate make sure you acqaint everyone with the full facts.
GLA.

Good Evening Everyone,
some interesting takes on the BH situation,
but may i remind everyone that if we start to create enough cashflow AM can announce the option from the original deal to pay back the remaining bonds in cash,
of course they will always have all their warrants which in there own right will make a tidy profit for the bondholders ,
post a JV agreement , which by the way is the least they deserve for there efforts.
Only if AM chooses not to payback some or all the remaining bonds will the holders be able to gather up the sizeable holdings that other good researchers have estimated.
I think that you will find that they can only convert so many bonds over a period and thus it would not be possible
for them to convert the full possible allocation post a favourable JV.
i also agree that the confidence shown by the bondholders in AM could only be regarded as a massive positive,
I also agree that the potential of the bondholders to convert is protection against any unwanted suitors and also an encouragement ot our potential JV partner to make reasonable offer,
as we and they now know that AM could go it alone but maybe at a much slower pace with the help of the bondholders.
GLA.

Happy New Year Everyone,
Thank goodness a little progress on the value front has been made.
We have always understood that on the prospects front we have plenty in reserve ( literally ) lol.
To any people who read my ramblings it may be clear that I am more interested in the bigger picture than the day to day issues of the company.
Once cash flow starts to be freed up SWP and the team will sort out the teething troubles with the BFU and some of the predicted increases in production will come and we will be on our way.
But the magnitude of the new discovery has frankly put all other matters in the shade for me ,
the prospect of a very accretive JV partner for us will be transformative.
In whatever form it takes what ever the milestones , the timetable, the WI split, probably even the name.
Doubt has been cast about the RS figures and the acreage of the discovery assessed ,
on our acreage the maximum land % evaluated is 59% base case, over the total size estimated size of the discovery 48 %.
If necessary I can produce these figures but it is all to be seen in the COPL presentation and the RS report RNA.

Also in previous times Pilot was less then enthusiastic about the CO2 or EOR prospects of a potential JV,
announcing that Exxon's Schute Creek plant is 300 miles away, ( roughly correct ) but what he did not say was that the pipeline to Salt Creek passes roughly 22 miles away from CC.
https://publicserver.wyopipeline.com/Html5Viewer/Index.html?configBase=http://publicserver.wyopipeline.local/Geocortex/Essentials/REST/sites/CCUS/viewers/CCUS_in_Wyoming/virtualdirectory/Resources/Config/Default
I have pointed out this link in the past.

But on further investigation I unearthed this link.
https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/natural-resources-energy/2021-01-20/wyoming-pipeline-corridor-initiative-approved-days-ahead-of-biden-inauguration
This plan was concluded by the BLM before the Biden inauguration
Now if you study the map on the link below,
https://www.eoriwyoming.org/downloads/WPCI_ROD_map.pdf
you will note the line to the left of the Dave Johnston Power Plant is the Converse / Natrona county boundary line these proposed trunk lines from the south and from the north pass very close or maybe directly through the CC unit ,
these plans were on the agenda for somebody even before the NEW DISCOVERY was announced.
https://portal.wsgs.wyo.gov/arcgis/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=d42f571b87fa4234b03d66ca7ae311a4

This link is a very interesting map if you locate and expand the CC unit double click you will see that there are 60 wells in the CC unit mostly unused so maybe it was already a candidate as a Co2 storage.
These plans were already in play before we acquired Atomic or Cuda ,
who knows if they have any impact any or influence the thinking of a LARGE COMPANY.
I wish all the faithful a Happy and prosperous New Year .
And
GLA

Good Afternoon Everyone,
in the latest interview made much of comparing our CC anticline to the Salt Creek anticline , over a long period this field has produced a lot of oil but is very much in decline now.
So I started to look at some of the deals made their.
In 2012 when WTI was 94.05 average Linn bought a 23% stake from Andarko
https://www.hartenergy.com/news/linn-energy-anadarko-form-400-million-joint-venture-powder-river-basin-45522
Then in 2014 Andarko sold their part of the field,eventually to a consortium of Fleur De Lis and KKR for an undisclosed figure in 2015.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150401006229/en/KKR-and-Fleur-de-Lis-Energy-to-Acquire-Wyoming-EOR-Assets
Then in 2017 Linn sold their 23% stake to Denbury for 71 million ,
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blog-coverage-denbury-resources-acquires-121500651.html
Now why would you want to wade through all of this information,well if you study the figures involved reserves , production, income you may start to see similarities to our own discovery .
Just study Denbury,
they paid $71 million for 9 million proved and 9 million proved undeveloped ,
this can give you a scale to measure what our 993 million minimum ( to be proved is worth under the current circumstances ).
They paid roughly $ 4 a barrel for this asset and looking at other deals for larger reserves the scale is higher $5 – 7 for OIP.
And by the way Denbury's part of Salt Creek is producing from the Shannon the same as the BFU and is currently producing less oil than the BFU.
The upshot of all this is anyone who thinks that our JV at some point will not yield a very large number indeed is delluded.
AM understands all this far better than we do and will not let a chance of a lifetime slip from his grasp on the cheap.
He has been dropping large hints especially in the last interview and not all aimed at us I believe.
The LARGE COMPANY will have to pay a fair price for what ever deal they decide to put forward or AM will wait for another offer which will surely come.
GLA.

Good Afternoon Everyone,
Firstly I hope everyone had a relaxed and enjoyable festive period.
I intend to post 2 links the first is to highlight what I saw as the most significant positive occurrence last year.
The second is to give an insight to the potential of a JV deal.
I have never been obsessed about sp and market manoeuvring in London,
we do not have a large pi base , not enough people now about us ( as yet ), the Atomic suspension debacle ( for which I do not blame AM but do blame whoever misled him into telling us that we would not be suspended ) the consequences of which killed sentiment and then turned us into a traders paradise.
We have been “handcuffed” as AM succinctly put it by our senior credit facility and also by the timing of events.
This is a common problem for many small cap oilers who have to navigate out of the situation carefully.
But we are not just any small cap oiler,
we are an oiler with an RS confirmed minimum BILLION Bls and this makes a massive difference to our future prospects.
Now to the first subject.
The event I mentioned at the start was the flaring meeting ( so long ,so comprehensive ) then passed in seconds with much praise for the company and the visit of the GOVERNOR.
Now whilst our discovery has made very little news over here where it matters in the US there were many articles.
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2022/08/08/billion-barrel-oil-reserve-discovery-confirmed-in-central-wyoming/

“Last Friday’s news that Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited confirmed the presence of a 993 million- barrel oil reserve in Natrona and Converse counties has Wyoming State Senator Ogden Driskill (R-Devils Tower) comparing it to the massive Bakken oil reserve in North Dakota.”

This article was before the flaring meeting,
so we have the state GOVERNOR and the SENATOR on our side, the 2 most powerful politicians in Wyoming.
You may note in the article that the senator was concerned that federal rules could be a problem but as I pointed the other day since the flaring meeting the BLM ( the federal arm of the government) the senator alluded to permitted a MINIMUM of 2 drills a year it may be that they are on our side also.
Pretty soon after this we have a LARGE COMPANY approaching AM asking if we would be interested in a JV knowing that we could not extract the oil and the value out of the discovery on our own quickly.
Now it could be that these events occurring in this order could be a pure coincidence,
but under current circumstances and with the US needing more oil and the needs of the LARGE OIL COMPANIES which ever one it turns out to be, to make ever larger profits and improve their green credentials.
Big picture pipe dreams I hear people screaming at their screens it could not happen for COPL .
In Part 2 I will try to show what can happen.

Good Morning Tiburn and Everyone,
I think we sometimes tend to forget important flags in this situation from a geopolitical and US perspective.
There are reasons to be optimistic beyond the COPL aspect of our situation.

We have a US administration desperate to show green credentials but also desperate to refill reserves which they have depleted over recent times screaming at their oil majors to raise production.

So here are a few pointers to why we may benefit from this.

We have endorsement at a state level ( the Governors appearance at the flaring hearing highlighted this ).

We also have ( more importantly ) a federal endorsement from the BLM, remember they set there limit at a MINIMUM OF 2 DRILLS A YEAR no maximum figure and this from the body which is tasked to regulate the green aspect of the administrations policies.

I agree with Tiburn.
An RS report ( conservative ) at over 900 Million barrels on 48% of our acreage which did not make a lot of mention of the frontier 1 or CC.
IMHO the final reserves on our acreage will turn out to be more than double the RS figure in the end .

So tell me why a LARGE COMPANY which wants to make a lot of money ,get on the right side of the US government and also boost their green credentials would NOT WANT a slice of that action .

Just some thoughts.
GLA

Good Afternoon Everyone ,
as an aside i wonder if AM's sudden speed to complete the CC perforation may have many positive conseqeunces.
Although perforating only in one of the three sands , 67 feet, if it was to produce only 100 bl/d ,
imagine how much could be produced form a long horizontal ?
this would also sharpen the minds of JV partners who would quickly work it out if announced. Ummm.
So we would get booking of reserves,
making RBL easier obtained ,
advertisment in the public domain of what is possible given data available on the size of the field.
This would surely sharpen minds towards action.
GLA.

Yes Tiburn,
absolutely right.
For example Exxon have lately divested themselves of an Alaskan asset.
And then announced the purchase of licences and a large JV to EXPLORE offshore Labrador.
So put in context our Large onshore discovery with much lower risk and other fringe benefits may make it a no brainer for them ,
probably at considerably lower cost to them but transformational for us.
Also agree that hints that others may take interest could be gentle reminder that they are not the only big fiah in the pond lol.
GLA.

Good Morning Tiburn,
The interview was very informative sounds like many things are coming to a head,
possible news on CC almost immediately the new year starts .
everything said this morning is correct,
note the accent on shareholder value mentioned several times,
he seemed almost smug,
could it be he cannot wait to issue the up yours news to the doubters.
"Early Jan at any time - Suspension pre JV announcement , re rate once returns to trading."
This is what i hope for also,
of course this would probably signal a substantial deal which would upset the orderly market ,one of the provisions for self suspension under the FCA code.
Suspension = Rerate.
a small deal would probably not need it.
So here'e hoping lol.
GLA.

"Early Jan at any time - Suspension pre JV announcement , re rate once returns to trading."

Good Evening Everyone,
I have been quiet lately as I have not been researching and have had nothing new to add.
Others have been keeping a close eye on permitting and progress towards re-completions at CC and now the potential for the first drill in the delineation process.
I thank them for this work, I have been watching though and taking it all in.
Today's RNA was I think was a measured report of the state of play nothing really unexpected ,
accept perhaps the re-instatement of the CC 11-27v completion in the frontier 1 “ before years end,
positive progress !.
But I would like to draw peoples attention to the title of this post.

“As previously disclosed, COPL was approached late in the third quarter by a large oil company ("JV Party") inquiring if the Company was interested in a Joint Venture partner to appraise and develop its Barron Flats Deep oil discovery announced in September 2021. The Company is bound by a non-disclosure agreement ("NDA") with the JV Party and as such is limited in its ability to disclose their identity and the nature of the discussions to date until after an agreement is entered. “

The three little words I would like to highlight are,
“APPRAISE AND DEVELOP”.

The devil is always in the detail with AM.

Tiburn and previously myself have suggested that the JV may be a staged deal,
this may or may not be the case.
But we can safely deduce from this statement is that the “LARGE COMPANY” will want tied in from the beginning a WI either from the start or from a milestone agreed in the JV agreement.
The “LARGE COMPANY” will not risk a bidding war either now or down the line,
hence the NDA,
so we can be sure that if the JV is agreed there will almost certainly be a sizeable cash component either staged or somewhere down through the process.
AM is not going to give the Deeps away ,
as many have pointed out AM is a good deal maker.
Likewise the “LARGE COMPANY” knows what is possible here.
So there maybe some jousting going on ,
but although it has been at times a tortuous year I think that in the new year we will finally start to make the progress all the believers desire and have kept the faith for.
A sign that news maybe imminent will be the conversion of more bonds, remember once AM announces that he will pay the bonds back in cash they will not be able to convert any more to shares at whatever price other than the warrants in the original agreement also remember that without the bondholders we would not be where we are now .
A certain person we all know has been saying that a bridging loan would have been better,
utter B******S,
the interest rate would have crippled us and as AM explained originally which people seem to have forgotten any loan would have been secured against the asset ,and under the terms of the senior loan we could not have secured an RBL for another 12 months after the CUDA deal was signed.

I wish everyone a good Xmas and a lol prosperous New Year.

GLA.

Good Evening Everyone,
I have never hidden my enthusiasm for COPL's prospects and am convinced in my own mind that i am all in on the right horse.
But i also cannot deny that we have had many false starts and as Wookiemonster posted earlier,

"Get the impression coms reflect Arts blood thirsty attitude to getting things done, and much of the time probably held back by other peoples timescales."

i think this a very salient point.

But there are basic reasons why the II'S and HNW's have not yet become interested.

Firstly ,
although most of AM's moves have been accretive and we have potential coming out of our ears lol,

we have not moved from the RED to the BLACK on paper this a basic flag for bigger investors.

We do not yet have a MC of 100 million yet another flag for II's,
on this point it could definetely be argued that on "fair value" we should already be there.
But we have been a small traders paradise for a considerable time they are like a dog with a bone ,
and will not let it go until they are forced too.

Therefore we have to remain patient ,
we will be clearly in the black either Q3 possibly but almost certainly in Q4 so one flag will be removed.

Now all the hold ups to getting production rising in an acceptable curve have largely been removed,
we will make progress,
unfortunately with the JV at the TDD stage the size and scope of our RBL has probably changed so again we are the victims of circumstance.
The conclusion of the JV and whether we even need an RBL afterwards depending on the terms should eliminate the second flag almost as it is announced.

The picture will change very quickly after that IMHO.
So ignore the gameplayers and naysayers they will not have sway much longer.
GLA.

Good Evening HFB,
Great to have you back,
just feels right ,
hopfully lol we can finally enjoy a little fwd progress with us all back onboard.
GLA

Good Evening Tiburn,
i seriuosly hope that one day down the line we will get to to drink those Rums together,
we spoke of many months ago lol.

Good Evening Everyone,
As the faithful try to put all the pieces of information we have together the picture that will eventually emerge is not yet clear.
We seem to now be focusing on Exxon as our JV partners based on the information that has come to the fore.
We already knew that AM had dealings with them in the past and were willing to put up $120 m in 2016 on what eventually turned out to be a failure, but they clearly must have thought AM played ( with a straight bat ) back then and if the data is reliable in their view are happy to do it again.

The difference this time that they and we are already beyond the exploration stage oil has already been discovered , the only question this time is HOW MUCH.

Exxon are a Super Major with fingers in many interconnected pies.
They still have ambitions within all the parts of the oil and gas industry and are still taking on large exploration projects just recently bought lease blocks in a JV with the Qatari State oil company in deep water of Labrador Canada.

They also wish to be world leaders in carbon capture and storage as well as enhanced oil recovery.
When they decide on a strategy they open the check book no messing about.

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/news/newsroom/news-releases/2021/1021_exxonmobil-plans-to-increase-carbon-capture-at-labarge-wyoming-facility

We already know about this they are going to spend $400m to increase production of Co2 by c15% at there Schute Creek plant read (Labarge ) but we also know that 50% of that production is released straight back into the air already so I am sure they would like to make better use of their Co2.
We also know that their Co2 production pipeline passes not very far away form the CCU.

I found another link with a connection to another project they are embarking on involving another name we are familiar with.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-transition/shell-exxonmobil-and-cnooc-team-up-on-world-class-ccs-hub-in-china/2-1-12465

As I said earlier these giant companies have many connections and given that we already know that CNOOC would like to divest themselves of their US assets you can see where this post is leaning .

Of course I am probably completely of the mark, but it seems to me that the closer you look at Exxon the more reasons for a JV with them become credible.

It is entirely possible that if their strategy and connections are aligned with little old COPL'S then we could be the fortunate recipients of a very reasonable deal.

GLA.

Good Morning Tiburn,
I think this statement is so true,

"I only need to get one "prediction" right for this to rerate - JV with Exxon",

I wonder that for AM to risk the Jiddy posts that the deal was already done.
Maybe it's only the legals to complete ? .
GLA

Good Morning Everyone,
Just to let everyone know Shaa is fine but is dealing with some private issues i am sure he will post when he gets a chance.
GLA.

Good Morning Everyone,
Your a brave man AJEP for saying what many of us are thinking,
for 50% i think you No's are not unreasonable!,
lets hope.
GLA.

Tiburn,
a philosopher and poet amongst your other many talents .
Good luck to everyone over the coming days and weeks.
B.