Member Info for Ibiza28

If the market has this priced in up front what do they think the number of wells will be and where did they get that figure from. I am just thinking of the SP between LP landing and Velociraptor results. Not thinking at all beyond that. So my thinking is between LP and middle end of June. it is very possible this share could go ballistic with hype and i do not mind admitting i will be out for a chunk of my holding before then and have a completely free ride to see where this share goes. Which bring on to another thing that has been mulling through my brain and will raise later on this afternoon.

Now the date is coming ever nearer hopefully to both LP and also news of Velociraptor and with that my mind has been wondering to what will happen to SP. There is no science to this so if anyone can give me a better idea then please do so.
The SP with no LP ( but LP on its way) seems to have found its level at the moment at 5p plus. It is generally estimated that this SP will double up on news of the LP in fairly rapid order. My reckoning is possibly within the same day others think i believe by the end of that first week. That would SP to somewhere between 10 -12p.
Now the $64k question is what will the SP do next and on what news. So are my estimates and rough (very rough rule of thumb)
1) DQE news of JV agreement and number of wells to be started this year. Every well will produce differently some a lot more easily than others. Some will have problems others will find it all a breeze. We will not know these for several months possibly not till Winter sets in. Therefore im;possible to put an accurate projection for SP but a rough idea i think can be used i think. Put very simply my estimate each well announced to drilled to exploit Herron will put a 1p on the SP. The sP is not going to jump on JV news from 10-12p to 36p just because of agreement with DQE so if we announce a 10 well deal the SP could well go to around 22p ie 12p on LP plus 1p for each well announced. That means that every penny or fraction of penny that goes on SP after that but during the spud of Velociraptor is part of the hype, expectation gamble on Velociraptor coming off. The question for all of us at which point is that SP becoming silly and top slice an amount off because when the news drops of Raptor results The SP will either tank or re rate significantly. So there will be a lot of us slicing an amount off before Raptor announcements. If Raptor succeeds the SP could well go straight to 30p plus if it fails then it will drop right back before coming back up to about 22p in the example above. After this all by this time next year the SP could well be looking down on 40p.

Must admit i am beginning to come to conclusion that the MG want the investment but are quite prepared to delay things until the refinery is ready rather than have it all rush out of the door into the hands of the Chinese. hence the delaying tactics. Just hope i am wrong.

This time there will not be any hard break out unless we get some concrete news and nothing equivocal about it. The market will not take another come dance with me and i will promise the world line. So yes could have a breakout with news alternatively we could have a further fall in price. I am not sure was the market cap is for a company that has loads of oil and completely unable to access it. I would love to proved wrong with a humdinger of an RNS next week probably.

IMO This share is now reaching crunch time. IF we have not got a RNS this week it will be the kind of monthly round up one early in May and the SP is reacting accordingly and realizes there are only so many excuses or reasons you can give for no LP until such time as a lot of people will think there will be no LP.
I know what has been said and i know what has been promised since December at least (my memory is a bit hazy going back to last June or whatever. After a while you just know if you are being led a dance. At the moment i am still prepared to dance. But this maybe the last time as we soon become a binary share. Do we or don't we trust in Velociraptor. And that is and if that comes then if this Share reaches 7p we will be doing really well until TD is confirmed. I am beginning to that Velociraptor is going to be the catalyst. If we hit we get LP if we do not hit we will be left to die quietly in the grave yard of other Aims companies. Another RNS full of excuses will not cut the mustard on this BB and no matter how hard the Rampers work this share could fall back to its 2.5p placing price.

I am not sure if it is anything and maybe me clutching at straws but MB seems to like RNS once a month at somewhere near beginning of month so maybe we get one next Monday or Tuesday. All i can say about time if it comes.

As i write there are approximately 2.5 times more buys than sells and the SP has fallen by 5.37%. This is why i do not use stop losses. They are not there to protect you they are there for MM's to bring price down so as to action them and then move it back to real level. I think there is a big buy in the wings and when that is filled this will go back up again very promptly.

I would have to disagree it was a very timid interviewer and PM was trying to make most of the questions to move it forward otherwise it could have a very much short answers going no where. It would have far more interesting if the interviewer had been a lot tougher in her questioning. But he was just being ;polite and not wanting to rock the boat with a local presenter.

WOS is right in all of this but the key date for me is going to be about 2 - 3 weeks after Velociraptor is spud. If WOS is right and i think his projections will not be far off. The SP at time of spud will be 20p therefore anything after that is primarily the hype and hope surrounding Velociraptor. This might hit 5p might even go higher. Personally i would not reckon on more than 5p but there are so few shares here almost anything could happen briefly.

I tend to agree a re rate almost immediately to 10-12p and then i think it will reach 15p by the end of that first week. After that it will be boosted (or should be) by each RNS as there is a whole raft of news waiting to come out once we have the LP. I think the SP will rise during the spud on Velociraptor, for a while.

I still struggle to believe that MB is going to start exploring Velociraptor before securing the LP for Herron. I am sure he is well aware of this and trying to push for it but worried he might get someones back up being just the CEO of a very small oil company. He had the clout of PC with the Chinese government behind i reckon we would be drilling by now.
The danger is this very soon going to become a binary decision in or out before raptors have reached TD because without the LP all we are is another little oil exploring company. With the LP we are a whole different animal and if the Raptor came in at the same time then we would be in a whole different league.
Secret do not get sucked in too far. If you can avoid that this will come through very nicely (in time) if you have been then you will be out or largely out much sooner than you would want.
Personally i do not think we explore the Raptor before the LP has arrived it could be corporate suicide. Very much a roll the roulette wheel and hope it turns up black.

Thank you master for all your work and research
This new block do we know there is oil there or just hope there is as it is so close to one that does.
And probably silly question and would oil here add to chances with Velicoraptor as an Indicator that there are large untapped deposits in Mongolia.

Let us say 200mbb at Heron 1 at roughly 10$ a barrell would be 2bn$ at 1.3 to the £1.5bn+ and approx £1.40 per share. I do not want to sound greedy but this would do for starters with Velociraptor coming up and other fields just issued and not to mention the renewables. But chances of it happening minimal but no harm in dreaming. But also remember if PC are ruled out then with a refinery being built almost on site and we do discover at Velociraptor i could see one of the big Australian or US or even Shell coming back in and then it really would be interesting and i can see.

Many thanks Master for all of this just as well we have you as MB seems to have gone AWOL at the moment.
I love the idea of the Chinese coming in but really cannot see that happening. A because Petro China are so unpopular by looks of it and also they will want to use refinery in China and what happens with the one that Mongolia is building.
But if China is interested in PM then i would suggest they get their skates on because if we discover oil at Velociraptor then the price will be considerably higher. And i mean much much higher. So PC personally if you want my shares let me know and we can sort out a price and it will have to start with at least a 1 with a couple of zeros (pence) at a minimum. To save you wasting your time negotiating. And altogether i have a few.

I am hoping the LP lands this week. If it does Land this week i feel the share price will very quickly (ie about on hour of opening re rate to 10p. I also feel that it is very possible that it could reach 15p very shortly afterwards. This share moves very fast and with this steady rise over the last 10 days or so i think it means that some of the traders are dropping out as there are not peaks and troughs to trade out and into as there were therefore more shares staying in stickier hands. Then as the weeks play out between now and early June when we spud Velociraptor there will be a bit of a lull unless MB lets go of the news he has stored but i reckon saving for the LP and i think each one will give the SP a little boost. I have my guess for a SP (assuming LP has landed for when we spud Velociraptor and a hope for what it will be about 10 days before TD. It will be in this last two weeks of spudding Velociraptor that the biggest changes will come.

I know still a couple of hours to go but i really thought we would seriously been threatening to 6p level instead of just knocking politely on the door.

I cannot understand why we are not testing 6p already. The reality is that 6p is going to look really cheap in about 10 weeks time and if everything comes together then the only six you are going to see is at the beginning of one zero. I would like to say two but that would too much to ask and be accused of ramping heaven forbid i will leave to others on here.

Very best of luck that is a long time and big commitment.
I agree with you we are tantalisingly close to a real lift off.

If that were to happen it would be fantastic and really opens the door to the big institutions coming on board as the Pension funds would not want to miss out on that..
But the question i have at the back of my mind is if all this comes off ie Velociraptor, Fox and Phoenix would not one of the big boys want to get in on the act and we would get sold on. I can see us doing a deal with DQE to exploit Heron but are we really big enough and is DQE big enough tor us to produce that sort of barrellage accross this range of fields so consistently. I know that Shell i think it was sold out to us some time ago but that was in a pre-pandemic world and have since mothballed a number of their marginal fields and was wondering if the finds were big enough and or commercial enough they would want back in. The problem there would be access to a refinery.until Mongolia's is up and running. Rather than wait for it all and miss out a rise in price of taking profit a sell on to a major would work very nicely for my pocket. But live in hope. GLA

This is just the escape. When thee breakout comes then the share will really run. The Might prove to be difficult to keep up with it Half a penny is 11% rise soon. 5 penny will be a 5 per cent rise and then and a five percent rise will be 1p. So buckle up and hang to your horse this could get exciting very quickly.