Member Info for Ibiza28

This share is moving on relatively small numbers just 5m+ shares traded so far today and we are seeing a price change. When news does drop and i think all the other news re Velociraptor DQE other exploration sites and even the renewables is being held back for the LP the volumes will be so much higher that this share will almost double overnight on the LP announcement. From my end no rush but would like to know it is there nonetheless. My reckoning is there are a number of very big buyers with orders out just waiting for the LP to land and then lift off. And for a while you will not see this for dust as news will follow news and the rocket will keep soaring for a while. When the engine or fuel runs out then it will come down to a cruising altitude just a matter of working out where that cruising altitude is.

The whole bit about the SP and what it will be depends on whether we get the LP before we spud Velociraptor if we get is after we have driller Velociraptor it will be a completely different animal. We need it before Velociraptor then the the raptor drill effectively becomes risk free because the re rate will be significant. Let us hope what was reported on here this morning is accurate and before the end of this month we get the LP. Now that would be great and double figures by April would be well on the cards.

There are basically two types of investor on here as with many shares. Those who will trade in and out and take their profit very probably on a weekly basis and then those who have been here for years. Too which group i am just newcomer by comparison. So as people trade in and out and will eventually find it is too rich for them and will move on to pastures new. And then there is i think a relatively small group who have a medium sized holding who will probably eye a decent share price and get out. So IMO the resistance levels early on will the traders getting in and out and trying to manipulate the short term price to their gain but in the end they will be like King Canute left with nothing but wet and dirty feet. In time and it will not be tomorrow (metaphorically) this share will rise like the tide coming in you will not be able to stop it. The question is where will it stop and when. Prgogressive research suggest that with Velociraptor we could be talking 59p but that will not be until a couple years down the line but by which point some of the long term holders would have bailed out and taken their profit for whatever need they have.

I was thinking last night that Velociraptor is a far bigger game changer for us potentially than even Proactive gives the impression. At the moment we will sooner or later be producing oil from Heron which has a relatively small amount of retrievable oil and is by all accounts not far below the surface. Now MB is fairly certain he can increase that net retrievable amount by almost double. Even then it is still not a major find but significant enough.
MB is essentially and oil explorer and not an exploiter. I should imagine very different skill sets although i am sure a number overlap.
Now if Velociraptor comes through with 200m barrells. Then this changes the dynamic considerably. My thinking is that it is too much for us to exploit alone and yes we may decide to Farm out to DQE and their expertise but now the whole field plus Heron comes very interesting to external majors i would have thought.
So instead of valuing company at Velociraptor coming in at circa 60p how about we sell on to one of the majors who post pandemic having moth balled all their marginal drills would be looking for a relatively easy access to oil. If it all comes through i would be prepared to sell my shares for around £1 per share as a starting point.
Just a thought and yes there are a lot of ifs and ands in their but nothing is impossible. GLA and i need this share to double from here within the next 30 days or so.

I am thinking the report coming out now iis v possibly deliberate to give SP a lift before some news comes in next week IMO, GLA

MB alluded to this in his latest interview in that although they are a client they insisted on putting their own reading, interpretation and values into this or certainly the last one. So from that point of probably impartial.

This share really should by rights be marching forward but as the saying goes "Once bitten twice shy" well with this company it is more "Twice Bitten Four times Shy" and that is what is holding this share back. I have come back in again I bailed out twice on the bad news losing money each time and this time came in with the idea of getting out before news broke hopefully with a decent profit but now i doubt it and will probably stay to the end and just hope that that we do strike black gold. GLA

This hiatus period is proving to be very interesting. Mongolia is on a prolonged bank holiday over this last few days so nothing is going happen. In theory it is back tomorrow but my guess is Friday will be taken as a bridge day and nothing will happen till Monday. So i think unlikely to get any any news before Tuesday or Wednesday and i would hope we do get something then. But given that scenario this share has held up shows it has a lot of support between 2.95 and 3.05 based on NO LP, Future exploring sites yet to be announced and dates and plans for Velociraptor to come. When these come i reckon this is only going up the question is just how far up and how quickly and also there will be a flatening out period and just when will that be. The answer to that question is dependant on two key questions for me. Do we get LP confirmation and do we hit at Velocirapter. With those two this could flatten out at 50p without those we are just another exploratory oil company in a remote part of the world. GLA

It is not really a surprise Mongolia are on holiday at the moment. Might argue they have been on holiday for the last two years or so.

I have read somewhere possibly on Stocktwits that this is an Appraisal well is this right because that would mean there is oil there they are just trying to quantify and qualify it surely.

But that is not the end of it. I bought one broker site and will be selling on another. The one i bought on is offering about the same price i can sell on. Therefore moving shares from one a non isa to ISA account means there is minimal if any difference.

I have just noticed that a purchase of mine has gone in as sale but should be a buy. But i will be making a sale soon of an equivalent amount

There was one piece in the RNS about the drilling of Velociraptor that interested me and made me think that although MB has only this a 28% COS he actually thinks that it is a bit higher than this. I am not an oil expert here and i am sure there are many on here but he talks about "if the results show it" doing an Appraisal test almost immediately. Personally i have never heard someone doing that or being prepared to do that at the same time. So question is Is this unusual to do this at same time. 88E are doing an appraisal drill now but god knows how long after the moment. And have i read it correctly as some of the wording in this RNS like many before it needs understanding.

Just picked this out from RNS

. Formal correspondence from central, provincial and district authorities has been sent to the relevant agencies as required by the legally prescribed process ahead of submission of the certification to cabinet for approval.

Who are the relevant authorities if they are not. And i thought the local district authorities were not on our side so this is all a bit confusing to me.

At 2.5p it is a million shares.

I take your point but one thing all governments in which ever country they are in are expert at is changing tack in mid course. So do not be surprised if MG now decides or has decided that rather than alienate sheep herders they want them on their side. So no over-ruling (yet) by MG.
Am not sure if i would go so far as MB had a misleading statement. It was probably right at the time but now Govt has changed its mind.

Must admit i can see both sides of this debate and cannot work out which way i really fall.
Would refusing to explore make any difference to the MG govt. They let the license lapse and then re-issue to someone else.
But then they do need to know there is something out there to back up with spending on the refinery. And i think this is our one savior at the moment the funding of this $1.4bn project has to get financed somehow and I do not see Mongolian Sheep herders earning enough to increase their taxes enough.
As much as the MG do not like it this is in their hands and need to move on it fast otherwise they will lose everyone,. The local sheep herders votes. The LG who think they are bigger than national governement. Mtad sympathy and support. Financing from afar for terminal because they cannot sort out the mess on the ground. British support and lack of trust from whole of international business in Mongolia As i see it the MG have to be far more pro active than the odd meeting here and there, At the moment this is not looking promising but it could be promising. I am hoping that MB has something positive to say on Wednesday that are not platitudes.

Unless MB has different plans or knows something different this i see as being another long wait. The MG is very reluctant to overrule the local people and local government and it is going to take a long term for the MG to renegotiate the deal with PC and demonstrate results to the people. The only hope is that the MG convince the Local Govt and people that they are acting and persuade them to change. I fear nothing this year.

The AGM is at 08.00 our time on Wednesday 15th. In theory then we should get an RNS on Monday or Tuesday. If we get the RNS at 07.00 or even 08.00 on the wednesday this is not going to be pretty as there will be no chances to ask questions about it. So i am hoping the RNS arrives on Monday giving everyone time to read and respond accordingly.

You may well be right and logic is impecable a RNS before the AGM makes sense but what is it likely to say. Not hing much because if there was something to say he would already have said it. So i would be very surprised if it says anything new and just find away of smoothing over the deficiencies in both the GoM and our board.