Member Info for Ibiza28

I do not know what your problem is with them. If they want to trade the share rather than be a long term holder that is their right and their prerogative. Personally i would like to but always buy too early and sell too late to make anything on it.
It does not get in your way as a LTH and investor. When the time comes they will make their own call to remain in as Holder for carry on trading the share. Just get a life the same message is getting boring and too repetitive.

Ok interesting thought and a separate debate so if the USD stops becoming the major currency of the world. And yes with the way politics is going in US it is very possible the Greenback is no longer top dog but what replaces it. A Crypto currency as i cannot see a stable currency any where else at the moment. And i would not choose the Euro until this war with Russia is over and the bill is starting to be settled the future of the EU is not guaranteed imo at the moment.

I really hope you are right because we go into a long easter weekend and i think t would be a lot happier for all of us if we had that under our belt before we went into it.

By all means wait and as you say less downside and less upside. But very probably when the LP lands you will not be able to buy any shares for love nor money. I think there are a number of buy orders on the table with instructions to wait for the LP and then move. For me that is what is worth waiting for. It will be like having a bottle of champagne and numerous corks as everytime an RNS is released it will give the price a new boost. With LP next day opening will double price from 4 - 8p and move to 10p very rapidly and then it will gradually climb through the teens to around 20p in fairly rapid order. Maybe at rate of about 1p a day on average right up to point of Raptor results then it will deflate rapidly on the news which will almost certainly be an anti-climax on the expectation. Then it will start to work back up again to what is projected for this share.

Personally i do not think we should start to drill Velociraptor until we have the LP for Heron. If we start without it will do absolutely nothing for the share price unless we strike a commercial and viable strike and even then it will be distinctly tainted because the wider market will not price this in until we have the LP for Heron. Yes i hear you say that it is a different region but we all know that ultimately it is CG that has the say so if they are not issuing the LP for Heron why should they issue one for the Raptor if it strikes. It is also our only weapon in hand to hold out for the LP.
Raptor is down as a 20% COS because they are always priced low to dampen expectations but really i think it is a bit higher than that but probably not by much in terms of striking oil in the overall concept of where we are as a compay Geo politically in Mongolia i would say the COS of striking and bringing it to Market (at this immediate point of time) ie no LP for Heron is at 10% and possibly less. I think MB is well aware of this and that is why everything is being held back.
This share is very rapidly becoming an all or nothing share. The SP is falling away fairly rapidly from the hope and expectation a couple of weeks ago. We have 9 days including to day to end of the first quarter (including weekends) and once we get this in April the SP will probably fall back even further. Central Government has to take firm control on this and tell the LG to get a move on it is souring international relations as the world is watching this and us.

My hope is that the reason we have no RNS;s on any other topic ie Velociraptor, Renewable energies etc is that MB knows that this LP is close tantalisingly close and is waiting for that to come through before letting anything out of the bag. The LP should and if it comes soon should unleash a whole raft deals permits etc. I live in eternal hope though.

God I hope you are wrong BP but it is beginning to look increasingly like it.

Thank you master very helpful but if relations between China and Mongolia worsen does it really help us. I mean where would we go the the oil that we do get and would it become uneconomical if China decide they will not play ball and take in Mongolian Oil.

Isn't there also a question of the environment here with PC. I am sure PC would have been required to do an EIA study and if they are ignoring that side of the issue as well as not paying taxes. I would say it was a double whammy.

Agree I think there will be a number of big players coming in very shortly after the LP has landed and it is possible they will make this 2m look like a goldfish in comparison. Especially if the markets continue to stay weak this might be the only safe bet in town for a while at least when the LP lands and until results of Velociraptor is know. Then it will all settle back down but the question what level will it all settle backdown. Remember 20p = MC £220m that is not over representing our potential.

Wouldn't it be nice if CG confiscated the wells from Petro China and put them under auspices of PM to exploit. Very unlikely but you never know.

Definitely not i got blown up by that ones some years ago. As i remember they were fully funded to drill then hit some rocks a few metres below the sea bed and stopped. I ask you what did you expect to find a few metres below the sea bed.

I think the news of Velociraptor and the drill dates and timings etc is already known but i think MB knows the LP is fairly imminent and is holding this back to await this and i think WOS is right once the SP is landed then there will be a whole raft of RNS on one thing or another in very short order. Personally the space craft is loaded it is fuelled up and the count down has begun just what it go. And for those people who have come over from Crusader (Bahamas) or 88E this is a completely different bird and not a Dodo.

Just a quick look at what we are looking at here.
Share Price indicator without Velociraptor est 38.9p sp so let's be a bit conservative and revise by10% and 35p. If Velociraptor hits we are talking about 59p. At lot of this is not going to happen overnight but the excitement of the exploration could push the SP up quite considerably more than you might think.
We have 1.11Bn shares in circulation on which a rough estimate i would reckon around 25% are in very sticky fingers and will not be moving at all. The rest will be tradable at a proper price and that will depend on who you are and what your requirments are. The reality is this is not very many. So even the smallest sense of demand here and this SP will sky rocket if the excitement does not match reality then bingo it will all crash back down again. Now everyone needs to work out what their estimates are So as a guide line
10pps = £110m MC
15pps = £165m MC
20pps = £220m MC
25pps = £275m MC
30pps = £330m MC

If the LP lands before the Velociraptor spuds then this share during exploration stage could well run through the 25p on excitement if it does not land before then my guess is this share will stick around the 10-15p range during spud and if still not there when Velociraptor results are known. If a blank this share will drop back to 4p and below if however Velocirpator comes through it might well hold its value even without the LP.
As i see it this is still a gamble but the odds seem to be improving rapidly and the horse is getting a sniff of the finishing lines. Just pray the jockey does not fall off before the finshing line.
So IMHO if LP lands very shortly ie before end of Month then this SP hits 15p, just a MC of 165m, in fairly rapid order. And then during exploration this could easily hit £275m ie 25p per share and maybe even higher if sentiment is high and we know how fast this shift when it gets the right energy. It will then almost certainly fall back on results.

I thinks is a matter of interpretation of LP landing and the time frame expected to get there. My reckoning is that this share will more or less double almost overnight with the LP news. So that would be the 8-10p that people talk about. But those who think that LP will reach 20p almost immediately i think unlikely but if the follow up news regarding DQE deal, date of drilling to start, Velociraptor spudding and when it starts and any deal on that plus news on renewables and other acreage that we may or may not have been awarded could cause a number of heavy weights to come in the mix. Then yes 20p is possible it really depends on the buying pressure.

I notice that it is the Cheltenham Festival this week and I would guess that some of the money made on here might have gone on their. But i was wondering how the commentary might look if this were a horse race.
Here we in the final straight on the Mongolian Oil Stakes. They have jumped all fences and are now rounding the final bend. This is essentially a 3 horse race. Out in front in Petro China with full might of the big stable and Government behind it but to be honest not the most popular horse on the course due to the arrogance of its owners. Then in second place running better than its odds suggest is Velociraptor at 5/1. This horse is new to the course and the backing is still just lagging behind a bit but it has good pedigree and the hopes are high that it will achieve everything it has been showing on the training ground. Then finally bringing the rear No LP. This is a stablemate of Velociraptor This has got the proven pedigree but has never quite managed to convince everyone it is for real. It still has one last chance and running at evens to field when this realises its potential this horse could be a real winner. they are coming down the final straight now we wait to see if the experience of No LP will win over the novice of Velociraptor and all the hopes and aspirations that always go with newcomers. The punters wait and see.

I do not really have one. Being six years old does not preclude anything but the fact we found oil since then might. But as Jim says these are all issues and just maybe a bit more relevant than we think. We all want this to work (most of us do at least) but we do have to have our eyes and ears open because after it is our money and it is not guaranteed. My view is i think the government has learnt a lot in the last six years but like their neighbours both to the north and the East are inclined to state control of everything rather than let western capitalism manage things mean that getting things through takes much longer than one would hope. I am hoping that these hearings now spring a result and we do multi bag as Wise owl predicts.

Let us not squabble the question is is this still relevant just because it might be dated 6 years ago does not mean it is out of date. Jim's posts i have found to be most informative and useful over the time i have been on this board and if he thinks it might be relevant i am prepared to take this at face value until proven otherwise. Certainly find it far more likely than something that is re posted every hour every day for god knows how long now. So is it relevant and if so why or is it not relevant and if so why. And the date and who was CEO at the time is not relevant.

Thanks for this Jim but as i see it there are two things here and not one. There is the issue of mining rules and laws internally to Mongolia and then Mongolia's part in the wider world and open doors to the wider world.
As regards the internal bit does this mean we are likely to get a result on Thursday regarding the LP and do you foresee any problems. Am just a bit concerned about this going to the public for a vote. We are not expecting any unpleasant surprises are we.

I do wish you would not mislead people this is not a given a renav to 58p that is a possibility in time if Velociraptor comes in at its full estimate. But until that comes in and the LP is granted sooner rather than later this share is going to hover at this sort of level with plenty of people making money on the turn. But until the LP is granted this is just another AIM penny shares and a gamblers bet. You can do all the research you like but at the end of the day this is a gamble in the same way punters research horses and jockey and racetracks it is still a punters gamble on who is going to win.