Member Info for Ibiza28

Please Wise Owl be a Wise owl and know when to keep your beak shut you beginning to sound like a parrot repeating the same phrases all the time. You may well turn out to be right and i and many others on here hope that you are but please give it a rest. When you repeat the same thing time and time again it starts to sound a little bit phony especially this bit about RNS coming very shortly. They may well be but the way our RNS's are they are study of how to say absolutely nothing in as many words as possible.

This is a very good question and one i have been asking myself. My thoughts and i wonder what yours are is as follows.
If we have the LP then it is hold as all the downside of the drill would be covered by SP from the LP.
However if there is no LP at that point in time all we are in reality is just another explorer with the wildcat chances of success. The share prices go up as we reach spud and then around news time the price would fall back until news drill comes through.
If oil found it is a complete game changer if not we wait for the LP. Personally i want that LP well in advance of spud.

We are rapidly becoming neither fish nor fowl and getting to be a bit confusing as to which we will be when Velociraptor is finally spud not to mention the other licences we may get and in my opinion looking likely to get.
IF we have the LP by the time of spud then great and this share could fly with the rumour and even if it did not strike there would still be the knowledge that we would soon be producing a lot of oil from Heron. This would keep a lot of people in play till after results are know and to a certain degree raptor would be a bit of a cherry on the cake if a 20% COS comes off.
However if no LP then quite frankly all we are is another Exploring company and the old addage of Buying on the news and selling on the rumour comes into play and that is what will happen. The downside is Raptor comes up dry and a whole lot of [people have bailed out already making a few bob on their investments but that is all and little or no reward for all the time they have invested here rather than in something safe and solid and the LP takes god knows how long to come through. The up side is Raptor comes good and the LP granted quickly and this share becomes almost anything you want it to be and it will not touch the sides in getting their either. As an explorer this is a gamblers share with the LP it is an investors share. You pay your money and take your pick. I still do not know which side of fence i am not and it is not helped by having over aggressive rampers and de rampers at almost every turn.

wondering could there be something in the offing now that it is going help Zeus off load this over the weekend., Maybe an RNS on Monday morning or even later today. Just wondering. There are as i see it around 161.8m shares to get rid off not an inconsiderable sum and unless a big buyer is found then this price will surely go down.

In my book this is not a fund raiser but merely a top up. Probably from the LP being delayed by a month or two more than MB calculated but yes i think it means more fields to explore soon plus Velociraptor will happen as soon as practically possible. 20m shares to get 500k is a top up not a fund raise which very possibly what the market feared and that is why SP went up a bit.

Please Philip Tan / wise owl give it a rest you are doing head in reading the same thing stuff every post. When you have new and original to say then by all means but the same thing all the time is counter productive. I am assuming you are Mongolian so focus your energy and time on your mining minister and hurry up the LP. You can Now would be useful.

Even news of drilling Velociraptor will see 5.5p and a lot more certainly for a period but hopefully for good. Even news of the other parcels we hopefully are going to awarded will send the price up. But yes it will be the LP that really sends this SP up.

Whilst i can understand the Mongolian Sheep herders out on the vast area of the Steppes not having or needing a real sense of time other the sun comes up in the morning and it goes down at night. The educated busy Mongolian Politician i would have thought would have learnt the importance of time in sorting out ones busy schedule and timetable and the importance of when you say something you try your best to manage that expectation.

So far today 0.5m more buys than sales and shares down 4%. Logic does not seem to want to work on this share. At some point something has to give on the SP cannot remain bottled up for much longer.

Yes I take your point entirely but the refinery is going to cost $1.4bn or something like that the GDP is around $15bn dollars which begs the question how on earth are they going to pay for it. I doubt the Indian company will take an IOU from an impoverished country like Mongolia for best part of 3 years. I would have thought they would have get this oil out and fast. My main concern is not that but what happens if we have a change of government and new minister and policies and new priorities. MB really has to start pushing for this now.

I could not find the bit where he said he expected or had been told the LP would be sorted within the month. Am i dreaming that or was it never said or indicated. Nevertheless a good reminder of why we are here. GLA I have given up trying to predict RNS and i would like one that is not housekeeping but far more operational.

Are we not missing something here. New blocks being announced is nice and all well and good but the reality is we really need the LP. I am sure MB plan was to get the LP start drilling and fill up the coffers which would give us more bargaining power with whoever we farm out to. But now we will explore with just the 6m in bank which will rapidly go down unless we can start to exploit oil.
For the the new blocks is all well and good but it is just a distraction from main issue and that is the LP. We were promised at beginning of December by MB directly from the Minister of Mining that we would have it within a month. It is now 6 week and which way you cut a month it is much longer than that. I understand that the wheels in Mongolia grind exceedingly slow but I wondering if there is a communication gap between MB and Mongolian Govt as well as MB and us on this board and other shareholders not on this board. GLA

This share is not going to reach a £1 at least not in the immediate future. Please do not over ramp the share. Yes it is undervalued but not by 20 which would be £1 per share. Personally i would be delighted with 40p per share telling people this hit £1 is cruel although if Velociraptor were to hit then anything could happen but only as a 20% chance.

A lot of very small sells and buys today but MM's have kept back about 20% of the sells and have done for about the last few days. either because they are waiting to be given the nod on filling a very big order or on the hope there will be one.
The share price will rocket up briefly and then settle back down to begin its steady climb up. Those with a few shares will jump off when they have doubled their money. Those who have been here forever will either de-risk or have themselves a good idea of the out price.
Final SP oh boy this could be anything. When LP arrives, when new blocks are announced, when deal with DQE announced, when Velociraptor drilled and especially if it hits then yes as Ham says you will not be looking at dollar signs but £ signs but that is a big if. So let's settle for what we do know or believe we know.
Sometime ago when the price of POO was $55 dollars a barrel and dollar exchange rate was $1.35 to £ this share was estimated on the barrelage we had as being 29p tp 42p (i think it was ) now POO $80 a barrel and exchange rate circa $1.20 to the pound. Plus MB reckons that recovery rate will be double what was expected. If you were literally to take the top end of all these prices together this share could reach almost £1 before velociraptor. Personally i do not believe it will as most people will have bailed out from here long before then keeping the price down.
As SP x Share cap = Market Value. So what is a fair market cap once all these announcements have been made and are in line with expectations (another big if). So let us just run through this 20p would be £180m 30p would be £270m and 40p £360m. There is something like a 60% up lift in the exchange rate and Price of Oil so at top end this could easily be over £60 at the bottom end over £45p. So Personally i think a market cap between 320m and 400m is not way out of the ball park ie something like 35p to 45p. When will it get there no idea but it is unlikely to be quickly this share will be like the night buses. Sometimes they stop at unexpected stops for longer time than anticipated. at other times they do not stop at the stops you would expect them to stop at. I think it will get to 25p a lot quicker than some think how quickly it will move from their to 35p will depend on various announcements and how and when they are timed. GLA

Yes but what about the Land Permit to exploit what we have that surely is the real catalyst here.

Mongolia is shut now or very close to it and they did mention 10th but we are not shut over here. The question where are the people who write our RNS's if they are over here then anytime today but I would tend to lean toward dropping tomorrow as i think it would need to be something pretty big to drop today.

Been thinking the publication of the drilling rights on Tuesday is just public official information. Surely all the successful applicants would have been informed by post. So confirmation letters would have been sent out at time of decision as it would have to have been confirmed officially and you cannot have a newspaper as official confirmation. So on that basis MB already know but cannot say until made public. He should have had time to get the RNS done and ready to come out on Tuesday morning. Mind i have been completely wrong on my thinking before and probably will be again. GLA

Assuming the LP comes through next week what do people think would be a good / fair deal with DQE and roughly what form will it take. Ie cash plus drilling costs for share of income. or will it be drilling costs only for share of profits. Also how wells would be anticipate in first year.
Also would ;people know what share of revenue do MG get and whose proportion would this come from ie do we pick up the whole tab or is it split between us and DQE. Any thoughts on this.

A) Just because everyone else is at it does not make it legal
B) It is a whole lot easier getting caught if we have people like you telling the world we are doing it.

Let us stop this chat immediately about bribery is a very serious offence for a British company to be involved in look at i think it was Rolls Royce or British Aircraft in Saudi some years ago. We get fined like that we would be out of business in seconds and MG would ditch us quicker say brown paper bags.
The conversation with MB and local governor probably went along the lines.
Govenor " I am a man of the people and the people here really do not trust oil companies. You only have to look at the mess PC have left behind here. If you have any ideas as to how to get rid of it and get it cleared up, it really would be much appreciated. "
MB goes away and talks to DQE along the lines of "Oil companies around here are not popular because they desecrate the land. Now we are not going to allow that to happen to our project but would be nice if we could demonstrate how we expect to leave the land once we have finished. "
They agree and MB brings on board special company for that purpose but goes back to governor and says i appreciate the difficult position this mess that was left by PC puts you in. We would like very much to demonstrate our credentials regarding our commitment to the environment and sort this mess out. Would that be acceptable to you"
Obviously the whole lot has a lot of Nudge, nudge, wink wink in it on both sides.
This is not bribery in any way shape or form this is exactly the same you going to the boss and saying you know those extra hours you need doing tonight i can do them. And oh by the way I would like nextTuesday afternoon off if at all possible. Nudge nudge wink wink. If that is bribery then most British businesses would cease to exist.