Member Info for Hosai

I personally would say yes, this was over a £1 a month ago, it only went down because of the USA cases in states that hadn't been hit yet. But as you can see here the cases started going up significantly 18 days ago, but still no change in the deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. At some point this will start to show in the markets, and covid stocks will bounce again imo. Hard to time exactly when that is though. But in the end ofcourse it is up to you. Also check out Swedens cases and deaths and how they have dropped and remember they never even locked down - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

30p would mean a 4 bagger to £1.20, a price that just a month ago people thought could be days away when the sp was £1. So think 30p there would be a lot of buyers!

People should search "cineworld share price" on google, and put in the custom range of late May to early June in the time filter then click on the lse share price link (there may be an easier way to go older messages on here I just don't know how).
What's funny is how optimistic everyone was when the price was £1. Seems a classic case of everyone is optimistic when the price is expensive and fearful when it's cheap despite the only change from a month ago was cineplex was still going ahead, so no legal case but still had the acquistion to come.

In the UK that is, CT seems to be 21% in the US but I imagine they pay all their tax in the UK.

Maybe a minor point but if cineworld made a loss than they could obviously carry this forward and saving corporation tax of 19% until the loss is used up, though I doubt they would make a loss obv, but any increased interest payments would be tax deductable so saving 19% on corporation tax.

This might have already mentioned but they are currently filming Avatar 2 and 3 in NZ. Avatar 2 won't be relased till Dec 2021 and then each sequel will be released every 2 years up until Avatar 5 in Dec 2027.
Obv only really relevent if your're a long term holder but good to know there will be blockbusters in the pipeline long term.

They wouldn't do a rights issue now but potentially in the future. Not sure the debt will have increased from covid as much as people think, furlough is paying the entire work forces salary ni and pensions...and most tenants are barely paying any rent to landlords. Obvioulsly it has increased since covid but that is why the sp is 60p and was £1.80 - £1.90 in late Feb.

A lot of companies debt will now look bigger due to the IFRS 16 change that means all operating leases will be on the balance sheet. Even if there was a rights issue to ease the debt, the share price is currently a third of what it was post covid, so even with any dilution you would likely still be making a gain. And then ofcourse, with the debt now reduced after rights issue the sp target would be raised up, potentially to around £2.50 to £3. Seeing as it was at £3.20 in May 2019 but the debt has been weighing it down since then.

Whilst I have no legal knowledge the idea that cineplex could expect to keep all its assets and carry on as normal plus obtain over 2 billion in the bank seems slightly far fetched to me...also the idea that cineworld could have seen this as a realistic possibility and still pulled the plug on the deal

Hopefully the RNS doesn't say "we got the dates wrong, really sorry everyone.."

@Haich Thanks for all the work...hmm I wonder what is meant by "unlikely"
"Other approvals per the conditions had been received, only approval was outstanding from Investment Canada and unlikely it was to come before long stop date per the terms of arrangement, hence Cine pulled."
I'm sure cine will hopefully have some evidence showing this unlikeliness or perhaps there was a legal reason that made it doubtful

Yeah we know netflix tried to buy regal but cineworld got it first https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8351307/Netflix-looked-bid-buy-2-4bn-Regal-Cinemas.html It's arguably a good buffer knowing there would be buyers in the worst case scenario, plus will always apply upward pressure on the price long term knowing a takeover could be a possibility in the future.

I think Dr Levitt has consistently made some great arguments regarding the data on covid deaths and questioning the needs for lockdown and is one of the reasons I am bullish on all covid affected stocks.

The way the sp works is if the release dates were brought forward and a vaccine found the sp would tank to 30p, if an RNS came out about going concern we'd hit £1.75

Thanks for letting us know about what you saw in homebase putmeonlist, I'm now gonna put my life savings on cine on mon as I now feel confident in the business especially as I'm sure they have good diy skills

Thanks Damodubya, interesting, when you combine this with the furlough scheme potentially the costs of forced closure might not be quite as high as one would first imagine.

Obv we know cineworld has been closed for 4 months but still having to pay their leases...I was just wondering though if it has actually been making these payments? Seems like landlords have missed out massively over the last few months with only around 30-50% of commercial rents being receieved (I have learnt the hard way through also being invested in NRR) I doubt this rent will ever be repaid so landlords will take the temporary hit, in the UK it's illegal I believe till Oct to evict a tenant for not paying and most will not because it will in the short term be a tenants market. So am just wondering if Cineworld have indeed being paying their rents in full...

Have to remember cineplex are facing great uncertainty now, also being counter sued by cineworld. Think they're shareholders would accept a lower deal over nothing.

I agree with the uncertainity Haich, though in terms of worst case scenario it seems unlikely to me that a court would order cineworld to pay 2 billion to cineplex...just seems like for cineplex that would be too good to be true, carry on as normal but with 2 billion in the bank, and on cineworld too harsh.

Managed to buy in at £1 and 90p previously...but brought the average down to 68p from bigger buys last week after moving safer funds into this. Maybe could have averaged down more if I had delayed but who knows...but I'm in with around 20k at 68p, it's risky obv but if that can eventually double than for me would be a great profit.