Member Info for Hosai

It seems in terms of the chicken and egg situation that cinemas should open first imo as their biggest cost of wages they can slightly control until October by using part time furlough if need be.
I do wonder if it would be worth studios taking a risk and putting out a few of their new films, arguably if a film like Tenet is out but not many other films are out competing with it, cinemas could surely just keep it showing for longer than usual and therefore the film might overall recoup its predicted revenue? Obviously this isn't ideal but from a film studios perspective wouldn't there be some incentive in being the one big new movie out for a few months? Others would come out later when things are more certain but they would be competing with other films wanting to come out then too?

Thanks for reminding me that my first buy into this was at 101p...certain that 150p was within a month. Think I may have forgotten the "be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy" rule. Thankfully I've averaged down to 67.5p now. Time makes fools of us all (or maybe just me).

Good post Moola, I agree, I was taken aback by the fall...tbh when I saw the delays I assumed they had been mostly priced in by the US covid situation in the same way the positive vaccine news was priced in so what you're saying would make sense.

Latest news from bbc is:

"Records broken across the US
Five states - Alabama, Hawaii, Indiana, Missouri and New Mexico - set new records for single-day infections on Thursday."

Yet worldometer shows overall cases in the US in the last 6 days have been below the 3 days of the 15th, 16th and 17th. Therefore cases must be dropping in other states to match these states mentioned going up by records however the drops do not make the news.

Dream machine why will poor sentiment grow when it's looking like US cases have platueaued? And as was previously predicted it doesn't look like the deaths will correlate anywhere near as high to cases as they did previously.

I agree Triumph surely if your going to frame the operating leases (mostly rent expenses) as debt, and therefore add 4 billion to the debt, you also have to frame it as Cineworld has saved 4 billion in expenses (as these previous expenses are now presented as debt instead).

dream machine how can you say the risks are now higher than in March given what we now know about covid...
-more people have died aged over 100 than under 30.
- median age of death is 81 (basically life expectancy)
-50-70% of deaths have been in carehomes (these will be prioritised from now on).
-It's likely we have t-cell immunity from previous coronavirus'
-No spikes in cases after illegal raves and mass protests in countries which had already been hit hard (again implying some kind of immunity not picked up in standard antibody tests).
-No more national lockdowns
-Treatments are improving and a vaccine may eventually be found

I agree RS, you know we're doomed when cases in Florida are starting to drop and the BBC reports "with cases in Florida still rising". I understand that no news is good news so media is driven to highlight bad news but they should atleast be accurate. A lot of the cases happening in places that have had their "hit" are now in younger people as they open up. These will probably will not amount to many deaths, as happened in Sweden recently when their cases spiked for a few weeks at the beginning of June but deaths never responded and kept dropping.

BBC - "As Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the US state of Florida, teachers are calling for schools to remain closed. "

Cases in Florida have been below their high point for 7 days and look to be slightly dropping.

The spikes that countries that have been hit are having are all in places in their countries which were less hit before, such as in France now in the West whereas before the North and East was most hit. Also cases are tending to be younger people now simply because the people who are frail and vulnerable are more likely to have died (callous but true) this is what happened in UK and probably why total overall deaths have been below average for the last month. Although the increased cancers due to lockdown will slightly blunt the likely continued under average total deaths over the coming months.

I hope I'm not piggy

Revolution Bars now down 11.2% bad day in general.

Everything thinks it's all down to film delays but lots of leisure stocks not doing well...revolution bars I was looking at is down 6.51%

Akorn cinemas were allowed to open a month before gyms but apparently according to you cinemas are less covid friendly?! Perhaps you could let the gov covid risk assessors know this they must have got it wrong.

At some point those insisting there will be a second wave will start to sound like those proclaiming the second coming is near. A number of scientists have already pointed out covid is different from influenza which had the second wave in 1917, even if it did come back countries will protect care homes this time where 50-70 percent of the deaths have been. A lot of politicians have already ruled out any further lockdowns anyway. Average age of death from covid is around the 80s aka life expectancy itself.

Cinema releases change all the time, Avatar 2 was due Dec 2021 now due Dec 2022, it's so far in the future it's very uncertain, will likely have the date move forwards and backwards a number of times before it is released.

Looks like cases have plateaued in the US.

I just bought more at 47.75p, I think over the weekend people will re-assess after this panic and this will look like an absolute bargain. There will be other new movies, often films can take cinema by surpirse, like Parasite for example. If covid improves then films might be brought forward, and that's why a lot of us are invested here because we believe covid situation will improve.

I think they should open up, they can put people on part time furlough if need be and can make full use of the vat cut. Film studios might also eye up the the potential risk/reward opportunity of distributing a new release at a time of reduced competion with other new releases. Also gyms/pools/bowling alleys will be open by the end of the month so there will be an uptick in people out for leisure.

Seems complete overkill to delay avatar another year, it wasn't due out until Dec 2021 so doesn't effect things that much but to delay till Dec 2022 seems completely ott.
I'm still wondering can they not show whatever films they were showing when they were shut down? Surely this would give them relatively new films to show amongst older classics for a month or so.