Member Info for Hosai

Kelbelle - It's not just Brazil though, the whole of latin America is hit, plus as I said Iran/India/South Africa...so weather I don't believe as that much effect

Prob short lived but still that rise was crazy!

Lets hope he says "I can also announce that we will be giving £1.5 billion to cineworld, just because I simply love that cinema chain". Come on RIshi you know it makes sense..

Wingingit, I realize Brazil is in winter, but still I wouldn't say their weather looks like winter by our standards! https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3469058
Also other hot places like India and Iran seem to have it bad. India average temp atm is 36/37 and iran it's 45! So not sure how much covid is seasonal.

Akorn we won't be shutting down the economy again, the BBC article yesterday pointed out that 80 percent of people have no symptoms at all with this virus. It's clear the local targetting and targetting of vulnerable will be the way forward.
Demand is definitely out there, the only issue with the pub is there's lots of restrictions such as booking ahead which I imagine put people off going atm. Cinema will have very few restrictions that would put people off and was legally allowed to open here from Saturday. This is ahead of lots of other leisure business sectors.
Also there are a lot of scientists who do not predict a 2nd wave so it's not true to say that most scientists are predicting this. In the winter if it did come back there would obviously be a cross-over effect in which it would kill elderly people who would otherwise be dieing of the flu so you couldn't simply add the covid deaths to the flu deaths. Also not sure it's necc true that covid would spread worse in the winter it seems to be spreading just as much in hot places like Brazil.

They woudn't close again, lots of leaders have made it clear there won't be any more blanket lockdowns. Only thing that would make this happen would be if the virus mutated to kill younger people, at the moment it is killing people at the average age of around 78-80 so basically life expectancy itself. Most scientists believe this would be unlikely to happen though.
Basically we are not used to seeing a stat of how many people have died today, each day. Imagine every day BBC reported "450 more cancer deaths today". We're also not used to seeing very sick people in hospital, whens the last time news crews went around filming people on the their last legs with flu? I'm not saying it is the same as flu, but I don't think it's as bad as we first thought, hence oversold.

I should say aswell as protests the open bars etc will also obv have contributed

@Kelbelle don't think the bars/retaurants will cause a spike, we had protests a month ago which led to no spike. The difference is that Florida, Texas and Cali had protests but hadn't had the virus properly yet.
France opened up all bars and restaurants on 2nd June and still no spike, check out their cases now, deaths barely registering anymore. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
In 3 days on July 11th they're allowing up to 5,000 fans to watch sports in arenas.

Indepth the goodwill figure has to be tested every year for it's accuracy as is specifically targetted by auditors due to the difficulties in valuation of goodwill. Can't see them not noticing that it was actually worth 2 billion rather than 5.5 billion.

Short article by Alistair Osbourne:

Blockbuster bust-up

Everyone loves a courtroom drama. So what will this one be: another My Cousin Vinny, Erin Brockovich or Kramer vs Kramer? Perhaps that’s asking too much. But at least Cineplex v Cineworld is a big-budget affair: a C$2.18 billion damages claim from Canada’s biggest cinema chain after the UK-listed company dumped its C$2.8 billion takeover bid.

Having done the deal just before the virus closed the cinemas, Cineworld’s boss Mooky Greidinger was always heading for a legal set-to. If he’d allowed debt-laden Cineworld to push ahead with the deal, he’d have been sued by his own shareholders. Sensibly, he risked a Canadian lawsuit.

Cineplex can hardly have expected its UK predator to pay up. Today it’s valued at around C$540 million. Mr Greidinger may be forced to pay something, despite his counter-claim. But a minor settlement looks more likely than a court case, let alone a movie."

I feel bullish now...90p on opening, £1.10 by end of week.

Great post Max...especially point 5, imagine watching tenet or the new Bond at home, just seems wrong and depressing. Leaving aside even all the technical benefits of cinema I feel it will always exist simply because people enjoy going to see it as part of a group amongst other people just as they do with other entertainment.
I also don't think think it's outside the realm of possibility for the streaming giants to look to put in bids for cinema chains in the future, seeing as netflix considered buying regal last year.

indepth - but assuming they re-open on the 31st and are all generating revenue again then the assets go back to being worth what they were before...then this unrealized loss disappears.

But that's because of covid, nothing else has really changed in terms of the fundamentals of regal. I doubt you could buy a cinema chain in these times unless they feared going bust as otherwise why would they accept a takeoever at such a low price, so surely it's just academic?

Not sure it's really especially unforutunate timing, as I believe cinema will come back to what it was post-covid therefore the assets of regal would increase back in line with this, though with slightly higher debt due to being shut (but arguably furlough and not paying full or any rents will have blunted this increase in debt).

Jacque - I agree infact the article yest said something like 350,000 early stage cancer patients likely missed. But no-one seems to care about cancer anymore.
Racandfz - So you believe that we are nazis for not shutting down every bad flu season? Coz it's the exact same principle.

The cases started increasing significantly 18 days ago, so one of these "lags" should be due by now? Do you believe that from now on we should shut down the world every bad flu season? As obviously every winter when young people "selfishly" go outside they can then spread flu which will go to old people and kill them quicker than they would have if they had never got the flu. How can we morally justify this as we've now decided no-one can be allowed to die weeks/months before they were apparently "destined" to live untill.

"The average age of a coronavirus patient in the US has dropped by around 15 years compared to the early stages of the pandemic, according to Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Reports from states where virus cases are surging - such as California, Arizona, Florida and Texas - confirm Dr Fauci's statement, as most new cases are young people who have flouted social distancing guidelines or have essential jobs that require them to be on the frontlines.

“The average age of people getting infected now is a decade and a half younger than it was a few months ago, particularly when New York and New Orleans and Chicago were getting hit very badly,” Dr Fauci said in an interview on Monday.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said on Monday that the median age for a patient needing hospitalisation in the state is now 33 years old. Most patients being diagnosed in March and April were in their 50s and 60s, he said."

Can't see these cases translating into many deaths as we know the stats for people under 60 are way lower, let alone people below 40. I believe under 40 you are more likely to die in car accident, and if under 40 with no health conditions you are 3 times more likely to die in a car accident. Once the markets catch on to this more I can see things picking up, especially the dow jones.

Indepth KIE's sp is 75.10p and before covid was 117.6p...
Cineworld is at 57.96 pre-covid was 177-190p

It's not good news that cases increase anywhere but it's only in places in US not hit before and as the BBC article pointed out today 80 percent of people are asymptomatic.
Cases are now staying low and excess deaths are turning to below average in UK, France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Ny and Nj despite these countries having mostly re-opened for last 3-6 weeks and including mass protests where people were crammed next to each other screaming and chanting, presumably this did not effect these countries due to acquired immunity or some people not being suscepible to it. In a years time I don't believe it will be some conspiracy theory to say we can look back and say it's only about 1.5 times as bad as flu...