Member Info for Hosai

It's not just blockbusters that are best in a cinema but comedies too. Watching Team America and the Wedding Crashers in the cinema with everyone laughing around me was hilarious and made it funnier.

US Cases keep rising but deaths again gone flat after a small rise last week. Hard to know how the market will take this. Cases began rising on June 19th, if we went by a 14 days until average death rule then deaths are currently correlating with the cases around July 4th mark. The case numbers on July 4th are roughly double the case numbers pre June 19th but the deaths have only had a modest rise of around 25% from before the renewed cases. Cases have increased by about 30/40% to today since July 4th so will likely lead to an even less sharp rise in deaths in the coming weeks than the previous modest rise in deaths that has just happened.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Indepth - An analyst making a riduclous prediction that cinemas will be closed till mid 2021 is a breath of fresh air?

I saw the spike, was wondering how big a buy that must have been? To move the sp from 56p to 58.41 in one swoop.

Without wishing to be a downer, is anyone wondering how much the Oxford vaccine is priced in? It's just we all seem to believe the news will be good when it is released on monday and in that respect if we expect that then the market should be now too?
Perhaps in the short term it will still be the cases in US and whether that delays releases which will be the biggest factor.

Sorry to add more covid talk, but this interview with Professor Carl Heneghan from Oxford University was very interesting.
Key takeaways:
- The UK wide death numbers we are given each afternoon are including anyone who has ever tested positive before even if they have recovered for a while, so people can get covid, then recover and then die of something else 4 months later and are recorded as a covid death stat. Most other countries have a deadline where they are no longer counted but we don't.
- The NHS England stats are more useful for the trend.
- There is increasing evidence that a lot of people have died after not going to hospital with heart attacks over the lockdown period and are still not going now, potentially a factor in the excess deaths count.
- 50% of the deaths are from care homes, in Spain over 70%, clearly we should have proritzed care homes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dxLDJJb1_KI

Laidback not that it really matters but it's not fair to to say Brazil and USA are the worst affected you have to look at the numbers on a per million basis, Brazil has a very large population and is actually lower deaths on this measure than a lot of Europe.

Slight issue with this "debate", imagine that everything coco said held some true. It wouldn't be possible to say this truth because everyone would scream abuse and labels at him? Does anyone not see an issue with this? That at times "truth" might be unacceptable because we have rules as to what can be an acceptable truth?
It's impossible to ever debate anything if you have these riduculous rules, you have to allow people to be wrong if they are wrong (not saying he is right or wrong he was just saying what he has experienced) without screaming abuse and labels at them.
Anyway, starting a whole other can of worms, what irked me about the BAME focus was it is clear that men are at higher risk than women, in fact a white man is actually at higher risk than a black women, but no-one seemed to care or want to do a report on why men are worse affected. Infact the biggest factors in order I believe are age, sex, whether you live in a city, then race.

I was just reading another article like this...very optimistic news if it's true, though still politically awkward. To me it would explain why all the places hit hard - UK, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Sweden, New York and New Jersey are not seeing resurgances in cases and deaths despite the virus still being prevelent in low levels in these countries.
If it's true that 90% of people in these countries are still vulnerable, as antibody tests indicate, then it should be rampaging out of control again after they have reopened. Especially taking into account the large protests all these countries had 5 weeks back and many illegal raves taking place. Sweden ofcourse never even locked down.
Without wishing to get political there is a possibility that the UK potentially locked down just after it had already naturally peaked, however it is still difficult to know for sure and the political pressure would have made it very difficult to have not done this when the rest of the world mostly was.

Impressive multi-tasking.

They should have been using vegas crack from the beginning - it's a scandal.

Already?! Lucky you, I have to wait to 68p.

Theres even a fantasy scene where netflix have bought out cine and he's walking around a beach in the Bahamas, but then he wakes up in his apartment looking at cineplex litigation rns.

You haven't heard the plot of Unhinged? It's mostly Russell Crowe after buying some cine shows, just keeps pressing refresh on sp and slowly goes insane similar to the joker...

I (sadly) would agree, as all my different stocks went down from the 11th! Maybe it's my fault for not investing in tech, though I do think at some people will take profits from the recent tech surge and transfer into risk on investments in tourism, leisure and hospitality.

Jenks - I agree not ideal if it's a movie based on a twist but Nolons reputation is so large I think people would go see his movies even if they'd been spoilt. He makes the type that people go back and see 2-3 times. Mulan I imagine has no real danger of spoilers.
New York seems to have taken a very different stance on cinemas than our scientists have but I guess this is like most things with covid.

Interesting question is whether cine in UK should open anyway on 31st July...maybe take a risk with "Unhinged"? To make full use of the VAT cut.
By the 31st July Eastern US including New York would also be free to open I imagine. Theoretically Florida and Texas might stay open, Disney world is still open, I believe they are more seeking an aquired immunity Sweden approach so who knows.
Release date of Tennet is still a month away, Cali might almost be ready by then?

Interesting article Moola, prob still a bit early to tell but cases in California might be reaching a plateau https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/

You should never get your hopes up too quickly with cine...having said that, £1 by tomorrow.

It's okay I just spoke to Mooky, he said he was just in a bad mood in the helicopter. He's feeling bullish and said something like "god help anyone who is shorting this". So sounded promising to me.