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7 day case averages:
27th Sept = 5816
12th Sept = 3001
11th Sept = 2761
Even with the increase in testing it appears to have taken 15 to 16 days to double, rather then 7 days.
The bulk of the danger with covid is pretty much over imo. France and Spain aren't being hit anywhere near as hard as last time despite mostly being open and we likely have slightly more immunity than them due to being hit slightly harder in the spring.
Yeah Laidback it will a big step...my worry is more NY than LA.
There was interesting video about covid which basically showed it had actually followed a similar pattern to seasonal flu in the sense that Eastern US like most of Europe has an increase of virus' in the winter whereas Southern US and Western tends to follow a different pattern because it's closer to the equator. It has a long flatter curve, which is basically what we saw happen aswell with covid.
This would indicate in LA it would now continue to go down but there might be an uptick in NY like with Europe, atleast with cases not so much with deaths this time. The worry is Cuomo has based his entire policy around cases as opposed to deaths. Hopefully he becomes more flexible on this.
If you watch this video at 20:38 it explains this effect. Obviously this is just one persons ideas though - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&t=1175s
Johnny I think San Fran are allowed to open by Californian authorities but their local leaders are very cautious so are only opening at 25% when they are allowed to open at 50%. So by next Tues the 6th the might be allowed to move to orange 50% tier by California, which would potentially be when they decide to open at 25%.
I'm not 100% sure but I think they met their numbers from around last Tues, so by tomororow will have done the first week of the 2 weeks assuming numbers are the same so if they kept it for the second week they would reopen tues the 6th.
You get long term after-effects with flu too. The difficulty with "long covid" reports are they are likely to generate a widescale negative placebo effect as we have never been so inundated with news about a disease before. Many will read about long covid and think, "Hmm I was tired yesterday..." and then the mind-body effect takes over. It's an extremely powerful effect. Being a mild hypochondriac I know first-hand from my own health scares in the past and the way I would develop pains in areas a few days after reading about a new illness to which scans would show nothing.
Obviously I'm not saying it is not real at all, especially if someone was hospitalized, but I believe the number of people who would generate symptoms just from reading about 'long covid' would be huge, as is typically encountered on a smaller scale by junior doctors when they experience "medical students' disease".
I agree podcast, also just saw this chart showing new icu and hospitlizations now going down, despite Spain staying open other than Catalonia and part of Madrid. In my view the bulk of the danger from covid is over, it just depends on when governments can let it go. https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status/1310140822839590912/photo/1
7 day average of cases on 26th Sept = 5559.
7 day average of cases on 12th Sept = 3001.
So much for doubling every week, even with the increases in testing each day it's not even doubled in 2 weeks.
Also interesting study in Tokyo, Japan which has mostly stayed open, study found that by end of summer 47% had been exposed, mostly through asymptomatic spread. Low deaths there might be due to very low obesity or more previous exposure to other coronavirus.
The way we are treating students is ridiculous, we have decided it's "impossible" to protect the vulnerable so instead are locking up the people least at risk. Having a track and trace system at university is virtually pointless. It will spread like wildfire there like virus' always do at university (freshers flu). More people have died over the age of 100 than under 30.
They will all be at less risk of covid than flu at their age and for the most part will not be interacting with people who are vulnerable or elderly. (Yes there will be exceptions but that is life, life is not perfect, just as it is not perfect that non-vulnerable people can pass the flu to vulnerable people each winter which kills them).
Unfortuantely I think LA and San Fran would be the Tues after on Oct 6th as far as I understand, as they need to hold their numbers for 2 weeks, it looked like they were right on the cusp when I last checked so might be touch and go but hopefully they will be given the benefit of the doubt.
They can sniff covid 3-5 days before people even become symptomatic. Should Mooky invest in 790 sniffer dogs? One outside each cinema?!
When you adjust the new cases by the number of tests done it's been virtually flat the last 3 weeks rather than "doubling every week". https://twitter.com/profnfenton/status/1309503410316742658/photo/1
Interesting, Swedish total deaths per million for the first 6 months of each year over the last decade:
(Note the low deaths in 2019 meaning more frail people in the population in 2020, 2019 year was actually lowest since 1977).
Lol Aviv, there's probably something to that. The worse the income statement loss is the higher the tax credit received, plus it puts more pressure on governments who are afraid of mass job losses.
Interestingly Dr Jay Bhattacharya (physician and economist and co-author of several seroprevalence studies on COVID-19) puts the IFR of covid at 0.2 - 0.3% after looking at a number of different countries. (meaning 2-3 people per 1,000 who get it die). Average flu IFR is somewhere between 0.075 - 0.2% but no-one quite knows. Therefore it's true that covid is not the same as flu, however it's also true that it is not wildly worse than flu.
The disclaimer of opinion was due to "lack of evidence", in my view the extreme variables and exceptional and uncertain nature of covid made it impossible for auditors to say yes or no as to whether they could agreed with cines report.
Agreed Ocean...what's really bizarre is according to ONS figures for the last 2-3 months there has been around 5-10 times as many people dying from flu. I'm also still confused by people who say protecting the vulnerable is "impossible", yet apparently locking down a whole country is fine and possible.
I think there was potential a week ago for the UK to lock down pubs and restaurants, it sounded like Boris had been talked into it but then Rishi Sunak took him aside and explained how the country couldn't afford it (thank god). Added to this a number of scientists including Professor Gupta from Oxford university wrote to Boris offering a different view from SAGE that the best thing to do would be to try and protect the vulnerable as much as possible but keep the rest of the country open. This swayed Boris to only do a curfew. Now I believe they will watch France and Spain, who are 4-6 weeks ahead and have an 7-8 fold decrease in the number of people dieing per recorded case compared to last time.
Boris recently said when scientists pressured a lockdown that "there are other scientists who believe our measures go too far" and Rishis budget today by not continuing furlough and stating that "we must learn to live with the virus" I believe signals a shift in UK policy away from generalized lockdown measures.