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As I mentioned before boo still have some way to go imo. After the management incentive shares being added, boo in terms of the shares we know about would have 26.6/70.72 = 37.6% of the eligible vote in late July/early Aug (assuming founders abstain again).
Also one or more of the founders could sell their holdings to a large beauty player before Aug 7th nullifying boo before the vote.
However even after the vote assuming boo took control if the founders then sell their stake to an external party more friendly to Bob in say 4 months then Bob could do what boo have done and demand a general meeting where all the holders vote him back in again over the boo board.
My only fear is if the lenders get fed up but I don't think boo would continue if they got a sniff of that as they would lose £15 million and have no priory over buying RevB than any other party would have.
It prob doesn't help that I have the sense there is a lot of misunderstanding from lay ppl half following revb in the media. Think many believe that boo are trying to oust the board who did the financial shenanigans, partly because the articles written and often so convuluted and badly written (also coz it's quite a complex story).
I mentioned before NYX cosmetics and 'the ordinary' being valued over 4x revenue by larger beauty companies such as estee lauder and l'oreal in takeouts.
These are quite similar companies to Rev B in terms of going for growth over margin, 'the ordinary' is known for being "affordable".
Rev B currently at around 0.37 times sales. Could easily have some bids come in over the next few weeks/months (which hopefully would be rejected).
Agree Drd, it's disappointing but boo basically took a crap on this just before re-listing. Market doesn't like the uncertainty. Also might be fears boo will buy more easily if sp drops becoming self-fufilling (even if its not clear how much they can with their RCF).
Doubt he'd want to push it too far in light of the audit issues Hereshopin. The comparison would have been with genuine FY2023 Q1 revenues as those have now been adjusted in line with the investigation etc to whatever revenue genuinely occurred in that quarter.
Seems like they were prudent with the FY2024, considering they'll likely make £15-16 million odd EBITDA (going of £3.5m in quarter 1 which tends to be weaker) but only guided to high single digit EBITDA.
ELF Beauty now valued at around £4.79 billion. With Rev B at £80.53 million that means ELF is worth 59.48 Rev Beautys.
For FY24 ELF predicting £568 million revs and £116.5 million EBITDA.
For FY24 Rev B originally predicted £205 million revs and £8 million EBITDA (although this was before they announced for q1 they'd had 60% sales growth and £3.5 million EBITDA so I'd imagine higher than these figures, maybe £14 million EBITDA?)
If we go with EBITDA which is less flattering than revenue for Rev B, ELF should likely be worth around 8 Revolution Beautys, not 59.48 Rev Bs.
If we can just get rid of the boo uncertainty, (hopefully they come to a compromise and stop acting out a succession story line) then there's only so long the valuation/fundamentals disparity with other beauty brands such as with warpaint and ELF beauty can last, market will price it in eventually.
I it wasn't legal Rev B wouldn't have done it. Maybe boo would be better off just focussing on boo instead of suing one of the companies they are invested in?
Why couldn't they just wait one month for the new proposed AGM to give shareholders more time to make such a sudden out of the blue and big decision, its almost like they wanted to avoid something occurring that happened today.
Agree OSG, it's just being held back on uncertanty regards to boo. It's a total bargain on fundamentals when you compare to beauty brand peers.
After the management incentive shares being added, boo in terms of the shares we know about would have 26.6/70.72 = 37.6% of the eligible vote in late July/early Aug (assuming founders abstain again) so not a slam dunk.
Also founders could sell their holdings to a large beauty player.
If boo are selling great, imo they are the only things putting a dampner on things.
Just look at the fundamentals here to share price verses ELF and warpaint. Warpaint still valued double current Rev B sp on less than half the revenues.
ELF at £4.65 billion market cap at around 2.5 times the Rev B revenues speaks for itself (admittedly prob around 7 times the EBITDA - better margin). Still if we can have a 7th of their market cap (£664 million or 218p a share) I wouldn't complain.
Assuming the founders abstain again at next vote it would mean a maximum of 68.4% can vote.
Add in now the management incentive shares of 3.4% I think it puts the total to around 70.72% who can vote.
This would mean boo in terms of the shares we know about would have 26.6/70.72 = 37.6% of the eligible vote.
However they prob also have Kamai and Moulding private holdings etc so lets say 40% (not sure why Moulding would be voting with them but it appears that way with Rachel Horsefield appointment).
Therefore, clearly it's not a slam dunk. I'm not even sure boo can keep buying too much, are they allowed to buy using their revolving credit facility? Might be frowned upon by the lenders.
If it can be arranged that one or both of the founders sells their stake to a larger player by Aug 7th who would vote with Bob et al then boo are likely out of the picture.
Has to get to 70p odd just to match warpaint who are on 75 million odd revenue, rev b around 200m.
Rev b much bigger brand online and crucially big in us with its launch into Walmart, also in walgreens and target obv.
Then take a look at elf beauty...around 4.65 billion market cap! Rev b only around 100m.
Both have large precedence in us retail.
Amazed it's opened this low but it's likely the effect of boo lurking, imagine where it would be without them after 60% rev growth q1?
If one of the founders sell their shares to an other party by Aug 7th then boo are out the picture