Member Info for Hosai

Stop loss is pointless in a situation like this.

Why the weekend? I'm focussing on the midweek, an announcement could come anytime.

"qube are absolutely **** hot at it which worries me, walleye capital have increased to over 1%, incidentally they also have offices in dubai, probably have an ear to the ground."

Well Blackrock also have offices in Dubai.

If they were waiting for the report they would have waited till it came out then approached. Why approach now when there is no certainty when the report is coming out?

I think an extension is less likely (they only happen in a quarter of times or so) and in this case Sidara had an extension last time and then withdrew so Wood would be less inclined to grant one. Sidara have also done a huge amount of due diligence from that time. Also from Sidaras pov the FT implied they wanted it done quickly.

Sidaras 4th and final offer stated it was giving these premiums in the rns -

"This final* offer price represents a premium of:

o 52.0% to the closing Wood share price on 29 April 2024 (being the date prior to the first proposal made by Sidara)

o 30.4% to Wood's 52 week high share price as at 29 April 2024 (excluding any days when Wood was in an offer period).

The former would give offer around 40p currently, whereas the second would give an offer around £2 prob hence why most think an offer would have to be around £1 at the very least to tempt the large investors to sell despite the recent low sp.

I'm guessing is not related to anything but I searched 'john wood group' on google and filtered by last 24 hours just to see if any articles and the first link coming up is the Wood group RNS page where something from 10 hours ago (according to google) seems to be causing this page to show up under this filter. Obv there is no new RNS.

I did half wonder what if an RNS has been logged in some way earlier ready to go out at 7am but I'm guessing is more like some other technical reason it's showing up.

Last year when they weren't engaging (they did so after 4th bid) they kept publicly rejecting each bid. This time no public rejections or leaks, meaning either no bid so far or they are engaging with them. I think the latter is more likely.

#7 days before deadline of 5th June.

As I mentioned yest, in the last approach Sidara made their 4th and "final" offer on 29th May, 7 days before the end of the 'put up or shut up' deadline of 7th June.

If it was to be the case again this time 7 days before the end would be tomorrow. Doesn't necc mean that much but seemed worth noting.

These x posters know about as much as Sharebel knows.

i think it's interesting to note, last time back in may when sidara approched, wood publicly rejected 3 of their "proposals", on the 4th try sidara stated in their rns that "wood has not engaged with sidara since sidara made its first approach."

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/sidara-statement-re-final-possible-offer-for-wood-group-2418695

this 4th approach was one week before the end of that offer period (which this time around will be this monday coming).

this makes me think either there has been no indicative offer so far (which seems very hard to believe) or this time around, wood is engaging hence the lack of public rejections or leaks pushed from either side. the ft piece a few weeks ago also seemed to hint at wood not respected sidara properly last time with an indication (or speculation?) that this time it may be different.

Prob around a quarter of bid approchaes in the 28 day put up or shut up get extended so obv it could happen but is less common, also arguably in this specific case with Sidara having done 2 months of looking through the books 6 months ago there may be less need.

THG was very different, I remember every day pretty much in the 28 day period the sp was dropping from the initial news of approach spike and there were constant articles arguing an actual deal was unlikely to materalize and that the bidder wasn't serious.

It's crazy looking at this 2017 article now - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-39253783

"Wood Group employs 29,000 people while Amec has 35,000 workers. The new entity would be valued at about £5bn."

Adjusted for inflation £5 billion would be around £6.55 billion in todays money, but as we know, currently wood is valued at £268 million.

I appreciate the post Tallies but £1.80 seems so high to current I don't think such a premium would have ever happened before. I believe £1 - £1.10 personally unless other news comes in before such as relatively positive delotte review or funding news.

I agree that its funamentally worth a lot more however you cannot ignore where the sp currently is that's just how it is.

It's very quick, certain money versus longer term more potentially but uncertain.

I agree with the old adage that long term holds work best, however I don't think quite applies when compared to a quick almost 200% gain which could be deployed in other long term holds.

" Even if they have a bid, they would need to present WG board with a financing package including bridge loan commitments from their banks (GS/JPM or MS). From my experience been part to several such committees, I can bet none of these banks would approve such a commitment before Deloitte's review/restated financials. And hence if there is a bid on the table it wouldn't be announced until a financing has been secured."

I doubt Sidara would have come to the table again after 6 months knowing they wouldn't be able to actually buy the company unless the review is finished first which would likely be of uncertain timing (meaning potentially having to wait another 6 months to approach again if not done in time).

Did they increase again?

"How can you still be sure that an offer will be made before the Deloitte's review becomes public?"

How do you know an offer hasn't yet happened? It would only need to be rns'ed if:

1. It was rejected

2. It gets leaked

3. Sidara go public with it

"1). The news regarding Sidaras' interest was leaked by WG first to help bolster the share price following the last update which caused the sp to plummet. KGs' comments for shareholders to take no action was a clue."

Sidara confirmed the news about 2 hours after FT reported it? What would be the point in artificially temporaily boosting the sp for a month?

it was only in the 20s a week or 2 after a giant fall, you can't assume it would have stayed there as the "natural sp".

sidaras 4th offer last time was at a 52% premium to pre-bid price but also a "30.4% to wood's 52 week high share price as at 29 april 2024 (excluding any days when wood was in an offer period)."

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/sidara-statement-re-final-possible-offer-for-wood-group-2418695

the 52% would put offer around 40p however the 30.4% on year high would put offer at around £1.99.