Member Info for Hosai

"A breakthrough on an economic deal between Britain and the US could come in a matter of days"

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/british-us-trade-deal-expected-tariffs-lfhz365ss

Looks like the macro situation is easing somewhat. US markets finished up above 2% from where they were when UK market closed.

Pete as I said before, I'm not arguing with you on the fundamentals. However if there was a bid/deal announced in the next few days i.e no extension for it, if it was £1.35 that would be a 440% premium on sp. Is that what you see as possible as a takeover premium?

I am talking about what a bid/deal price could be in the following days/week. Obviously if it goes to extension etc and suspension then Wood could come out the other side looking better and then it could be a different situation, if the sp rose to say 60-70p once unsuspended then obv I could imagine a £1.35 etc.

NNH, you realize 150p would be a 500% takeover premium? I'm not saying Wood is not worth 150p I think all the fundamentals arguments are very solid but this kind of quick premium just doesn't seem a particularly rational thing to hope for in terms of an offer but if it is correct then would be a great thing.

Weirdly I can't help but think Sidara would be happy to have it still for 150p, however as I said, that kind of premium would be completely unheard of.

As-well as it predominantly impacting the projects division in prior periods it also stated "no material impact on the Group’s historical cash flow generation."

US markets recovered to finish a little above where they were when UK market closed.

"Zero chance of a bid happening before shares are suspended."

How is there 0% chance? I would say 50/50. Sidara already have done 6 and half weeks of due dilligence (following months last summer) and also have the draft review from Deloitte which was compiled over 5 months.

I don't see what the auditors will find that Deloitte didn't. Sidara also don't want to risk a competitor becoming interested and/or staff leaving.

Agree Jenashon, Sidara also gained back around £1.25 billion in cash on 30th April 24 when they sold their Worley stake.

Sham, this is what Chat GPT says in regards to unsecured lenders vs secured in situations of refinancing after historical covenants breaches:

"In general, if you're the company, you'd prefer your lenders to be unsecured in a scenario like this. Here's why:

🔓 Unsecured lenders:

Have less direct power to seize assets or force quick action (e.g. administration or debt-for-equity swaps).

Tend to have weaker negotiating leverage in a distressed situation.

May be more incentivized to work with the company on waivers, refinancing or covenant amendments, rather than force default or drastic changes.

Court-driven restructuring or liquidation is usually their only fallback — something they typically want to avoid due to lower recovery rates.

🔐 Secured lenders, on the other hand:

Have more control — they can often step in quickly to enforce security rights (e.g. take over or sell key assets).

Can push for faster recapitalisation, restructurings, or asset sales.

If there's default (like a covenant breach), they might demand board changes, asset disposals, or dilutive equity raises, knowing they hold the collateral.

More aggressive in protecting their downside, especially in industries with hard assets (like infrastructure or energy)."

Now Trump has said "Xi is a smart guy and we'll end up making a very good deal" so is even softening on China. This was post US markets close so could push things even more tomorrow.

Many were selling recently based on the idea that sidara would pull out because of the macro environment.

MIDS it fell from around 30p based on macro (like most stocks have fallen since Thurs other than Tuesday temp relief). Would be surprised for it not to return towards there at-least in regards to pure macro inputs.

Nasdaq now up 8%, gonna be a roaring day tomo.

90 day pause on all tariffs except for China, well if Sidara were concerned in regards to the macro environment this should ease things a little. Would imagine wood is going to have a good rise tomo.

Nasdaq up 7% now! 90 day pause of new tarrifs from Trump

Suddenly jumped massively, will see if it holds.

Sidara made around $1.6 billion (£1.25 billion) in April 2024 when they sold their 20% state in Worley. I don't think they have made a major purchase since this therefore cash not a major problem for them.

https://mining.com.au/worley-wipes-off-1-billion-on-shareholder-selldown/

We don't know the exact nature of the material re-statements yet of course but we do know that the FY2024 EBITA and EBIT figures do not seem to be being questioned, at-least they were not mentioned unlike FY2022 and FY2023.

We also know in regards to the prior year adjustments - "Predominantly impacting the reported performance of the Projects business unit in prior periods with no material impact on the Group's historical cash flow generation"

" even if Sidara do eventually have an offer accepted, anyone sitting it out to get the full offer price for their shares might still be here this time next year waiting"

You think it will take Wood a year to finalize their accounts?

As far as I understand it, since most of the debt is 'unsecured', the more doomish worst-case scenarios some are suggesting seem less likely. Lenders can't just seize assets or force a debt for equity swap like they could if it were secured debt. Any restructuring would be more complex and would likely involve courts or negotiated processes, which most lenders try to avoid unless absolutely necessary.

There's never going to be a moment where Sidara would have perfect certainity. At some point a buyer has to 'take the plunge'.