Member Info for headder

You can bet If Tom Winnifrith was bearish bidstack it was at the height of its 15 minutes of fame and he was pumping something else.

I disagree, future valuations mean everything, that's why so many shenanigans go on as people try to exploit miss pricings & the crooked ceo has put us in a situation where the current large shareholders (who can vot off a takeover mind) will get a knocked down price to invest more capital.

For instance, post fesability equity holders were willing to hold shares at 6p, or 80£M mcap knowing full well dilution was coming for funding, because they assumed the future valuation of the company, based on cashflows, was reasonably priced based on previous information and risk.

So, today we are pretty much in the same situation again but instead of production being 3 years off, it's about 1, and so close to mine completion, post funding, the only risk left will be start up, blending & recovery risk.

I personally think it's a steal here at 20p! I have my own price target for the shares prior to funding based on a pessimistic scenario. If the board attempts to calm market fears and address the situation better we could go a lot higher but I think we get equity raise once mine study is done, then fesability for line 2 and continuous share pumping from the crooked ceo which I thing should be sacked and replaced with an honest person who people will like (as it will dd value to the shares).

Tom winnifrith is just a scammer who uses subscribers to exploit prices in small cap companies. If he's bearish; I'm bullish! He's the Jim Cramer of small caps!

You should know how it's getting funded; placing! You would just rather try political methods to exploit naive shareholders who don't understand valuations of future cash flows because you want to invest lower and get a 5x return in 1 year instead of maybe a triple if funding is 20p. Where is your cashflow model?

Voting no on an open offer of 10p because I know it's worth 80p a share to a mining company on the open market!

Oh, and shuv Ur tin foil hat conclusions up your donkey hybrid!

Funding won't be until at least end November, gives fidelity & others plenty of time to sell. Where we end up is more of a maths equation once funding needs are known. Again, MATHS, if we use the mid 16000$/t nickel, the mine generates 3.6M$ after capital payback, having npv 8 (from 2019) 1.1BN$. Given explorers are usually valued @ 1/3 npv, that's 300M$! The mine is permitted & has over 450M£ property plant & equipment and just 200M$ current liabilities. The discount to asset value here is f'kin st'pid & all the fools looking at the share price every 5 minutes can't even see it! Not even the shirty lying board can ruin that as it's run by experienced professionals.

Could certainly look for a buyer down here as a means for a more favourable equity funding deal imho

Equity raise. Lower quartile cost producer, renewably powered, so low co2 etc., there will be an equity raise, although at these prices, if I were the board, unless I was going to take part heavily, I would look for a sale. Reckon it's worth £400M to the right buyer as a company once debt is written off.

Short answer. Equity raise.....

Still lots of overhead supply, multibagger potential down here imho. Just look at net asset value and npv. No way this first quartile project doesn't get more capital injected.

How have they missed the boat? This was 0.4% nav before the route, even a raise @ 20p implies a pre production target of 40p and that's being pessimistic

Fwiw, I think glencore, orion & la mancha are in this for the income, so a raise at around 30p might actually be better for them as they would proportionatly increase percentages of held shares.

You can thank the dodgy board for their ambiguous rns, a small cap tactic used for risky bail outs. In an liquidation, which won't happen, the market value of the project plus property plant & equipment (from mostly equity raises), minus debt could be £400M. Total scam by the board, 25% of big mining projects have cost overruns, we're only at the average sum of here.

Is this the correct way to value a potential sale? I was just thinking because property plant & equipment plus cash, minus liabilities leaves over 200M$?

£220M gone from market cap in 2 days for a 6 Month delay (25M$ cost) and 50-60M$ needed to reach production. Debt covenants & funding syndicate need new agreements etc., blah blah blah.

Think this bounces at some point but maybe not this morning......

You are correct!

RNS was completely ambiguous wasn't it! You got 50, I interpreted 100 thinking current capex budget is what they have left to spend and most people are thinking 200 as a round number. What we do know is they are in debt of their debt covenants and need to renegotiate the syndicate. Covenant was for no more than 16% increase in costs & they are at around 35%.

57p in Canada

So, roughly they need another 100M$, not 50M$. £150M knocked off the market cap today alone, how low can it go???

Looks to me that one of the big shareholders wants out. No RNS yet so expect selling to continue over the coming days at least. Don't expect a rapid rebound as quite a lot of buyers wouldn't touch this until they know who is selling, if it's octopus investments, they have 10% of the shares so the price could get silly. Also, the debt covenant reduces to 2.2X ebitda soon with uncertainties over refinancing, interest rates and profitability. Don't forget about placing risk via. share rights issue.

Picked up on twitter; https://x.com/Borg74/status/1708546802645950901?s=20

Looks like NoelBorg likes it all the way up to where we know rab capital have been selling (5.3-3.5%) but what about aedos (7-6.5%)?.