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35% project cost over run to c/725M$;

429 spent already, 93M funding in bank + 130M debt (assuming draw after funding) = 652.

Expected funding gap = 63M? Add contingency 10%, 70M$?

? wtf you on about tony, you drunk or something?

to do with the absolute bombe dropped on the market, preparing the company for a major bail out, the fact that the board must have known at the last presentation is a matter for the fca. but they are passive and won't do anything. major shareholders knew of a 25% chance of a cost blowout to begin with, so, are probably going to arrange themselves to have a lions share of the discounted placing. 'chairman of the board'? yes, he must have everything ready for the fca, including how jm has been laughing at all the stupid shareholders who he ripped off. i'm sure. glencore & orion must be ******* themselves.

Good analysis, can deffinately read a balance sheet, but if we are critiquing here there was no mention of political risk.

Also, those of you who are on twitter & have seen the offshore services guys there, haven't rig rates gone up 50% in 12 Months or something? Makes the 1.3Bn$ upfront capex seem out of date, but at least if the project reaches FID, aren't developement costs at least contractual to whatever the final amount may be at that point?

Interesting, I don't think serro de tapo will get developed this coming cycle as the grades are too low and it's not near the sea/ close to China. If, as I expect, aisc has gone from 10k to 12k$ (not accounting for any increase in debt) on 1.7% ore, assuming you want a 30% finished nickel product, you are basically asking for over 25k nickel for viability and trucking ore in place of higher grades doesn't make sense. 19k$ here would be amazing but for the solution for high prices and all that......

https://www.northernontariobusiness.com/industry-news/green/vale-has-a-****-solution-at-its-brazilian-refinery-7632497

Does anybody know if Aguaia resource is a cutoff grade of 1%? If so, deposit is 25% bigger than onca puma, which does 50Kt/pa.

Voiseys bay not here but here you see 2 projects, both with 30% cost increases!

https://www.reuters.com/article/vale-goro-idUSN2150037320091021

Also, onca puma, which is in the same state as aguaia and has roughly the same grade Fe & Ni, having the same company build the furnace, producing a 25%+ NPI (high grade) had to then spend additional funds because the furnaces broke apart after 18Months. Turns out they found multiple design flaws that needed complete rebuilds to address.

Originally commissioned in 2011, onca puma on an equivalent basis, to construction, would be 667M$ for a hzm size operation & when build costs went up 30% , that would be 867M$.

Makes you wander how the original build price here was quoted half that 10 years on & that people were actually expecting the project to be on budget to begin with!

With a 2021 aisc of 4.5$/lb, I wonder what a half built 30% production addition to onca puma would be worth to vale since their operation equivalently cost over £700M and that was before throwing a couple £100 more at furnace rebuilds?

Probably nothing to nobody!

1.7% ore is worth 54$ FOB to Lianyun port, China currently me thinks....

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesian-nickel-smelters-turn-philippines-ore-local-supply-tightens-2023-08-30/

Great company here for comparrison, https://gfni.com.ph/news/fni-revenue-rises-41-in-1h-2023net-financial-result-reflects-macroeconomic-and-weather-challenges/

Has basically the same grade as aguerra, except is near the sea, so, basically, it currently ships just the mined ore to China for smelting. It mines 1/2 the ore HZM wants to, gets 40$ a wet ton, pays a 10M$ dividend (3.7%) and has a mcap of 270M$! All they do is dig ore of 1-1.7% ni, 30%fe (1% average grade) and load it on ferries!

Makes this company look like a bunch of muppets!

See it doesn't make sense. Saprolitic deposits & rkef nickel extraction processes are nothing new, the technology is from 1960?, so why, at this late stage are the company looking to make employee & water management changes, with the capex budget blowing up?? You don't spend millions on feed studies for a well known process & mine plan, to then change things last minute unless what?

Anyone find out why they need a bigger dam and more houses yet?

I'd say it looks more like turquoise hill atm, having similar tailwinds from decarbonisation and electricification aspirations from the WEF nations.

I'm assuming interest is a factor in the breakevrn price too, as hzm c1 was originally forecast as 8300?/t with breakeven of 10k.

Rough calculation picked peck which was a go between from, as you say, coal, labour, mining and other costs. S&P had mining costs in the whole sector aisc averaging 9900/t in 2021, although generally saprolite being cheaper to produce, deposits are mainly sulphides I think.

Value based on previous market capitalisation is not the right way to look at the shares here;

We know coal, labour & other operating costs are now higher. I estimate break even cost rises from 10k to 12k, or round about average weighting in nickel operations. So, that puts roughly 6k$ of EBITDA/t, or in the region of 84M$. The delay is a slight blow but with 140m$ currently drawn, a 6 Month delay on full drawdown shouldn't cost that much as it's not a 6 Month accumulation on full debt.

Granted, there's the liquidation route where some independent liquidators would be sought to find a buyer, there's the equity funding rout which would likely be on a fully diluted basis, or what they call mezzanine finance, which basically means a lot of cln's.

That's just nuts, company valuations should be discounted cashflows of future earnings, given risk weighting.

No, it's because even though the company needs in excess of 1.6BN$, and high nickel prices, CEO stated they still have some drill results on another property to come and weren't looking to raise capital at the current share price.

Https://canadanickel.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/10.12.2023_CNC-Press-Release_FS-FINAL4-1.pdf

If you look at the assumed nickel & other metal prices used, you will find the company, with a market cap of £100M Needs 20k$/T Nickel & govt tax credits to even be profitable.

Why is Canada Nickel valued nearly double HZM? Do people think it's going to get bought out or something at a premium because that's the only viable explanation I can think of??

Let's be real here, you just described a short term trading opportunity with regards to a successful award outcome.