Member Info for headder

Got any links to back up your assumptions? Anyone can have an opinion, but if your purely influenced by your own pessimism or self interest then that's just it isn't it!

As i've said before after running the numbers, at full debt drawdown the company is basically just going to be paying down debt if an assumed 70+M$ is placed in equity. They will do a deal on a2 in my opinion & glencore will end up with half the aguaia asset in exchange for a bailout and funding for line 2. My 2 cents.... Either that, or a 2 for 1 placing @ 20p. Neither. I'd fully value the former @ £1 & the latter @ 70p. You know what gets my vote!

Wrong; Fesability on a2 will be first so they can use it in the funding round. That way Glen can buy it for 100m$ and hzm doesn't have to worry about the massive increased debt burden it will cause while claiming to be the champion because they still hold 100% of the (uneconomic) vermehlo.

Yes, i'm probably wrong but it's more likely than your 67p and at these levels it does protect more value than a significant dilution.

@ Alma cogan, sorry, do you have any web links of heating specifications & procedures?

Here's your heated tanker; https://knowledgeofsea.com/tanker-various-parts/

And here's the oil; https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/95439/rockhopper_notes_sample_analysis_of_sea_lion_discovery/

And correct, the pmo base case was to shuttle oil from fpso direct to a tanker moored at berkley sound; (search transport to find the highlight); https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/monnn0pg/eia-non-technical-summary.pdf

Guess my mind goes off on a tangent sometimes, was looking at tanker rates recently & thinking a small refinery to break up the wax chains & onshore storage tanks would be a cheaper option that would load a tanker in a day rather than have it hang around in port etc. for what could be 20 days & paying it to sit around.

You are right, Venezuela seems to have thick asphaltine oil which seems to need a diluent to help it flow prior to export;

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-iduskcn1qu300

So back to the original post, lufc fan was it, that leaves political risk being the reason the project is 'cheap' with regards to Arg sanctions & the UK govt. plus dilution risk & the fact NVPT hasn't found a partner yet. Still not certain of the economics yet myself either. Basically, as people have said, there will be no rerate until a proper study defines the economics, project specifications and regulatory approval happens. Until then, well it's just knowing you could be investing in an early stage East india company, or you could be buying a south sea company. You are a speculator!

As you can see, this share does not trade comparably with the oil price as, rightly so, the project does not have defined economics & why would you trust an unconfirmable npv from a presentation hey;

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TuhboHwe/

You think it's rubbish but all you can do is quote presentations.

Why is it rubbish? It's what Venezuela has to do. Libya has light oil to mix with their waxy oil.

Think I'm wrong? Post some links. Why does fogl have a land package in fi that looks like it's for a port complex?

From my understanding it's cheap because of people are skeptical of the companies ability to ship an oil that turns to wax at room temperature and also worried about finding service providers that wouldn't care about sanctions. Fid might take a Chinese partner to set up refining capability and this could even be the 'partner' both prem & nvpt both mention they want/ wanted but don't have yet?

Good posts trex, of course carbon effects will be subject to European end product taxes 2026 so should see some demand for low carbon sources of metals such as hzm & vale will produce so the EU can remain competitive.

As to price focus, there seems a few of Jeremy Martin like sperms about, maybe he had a w; anktoday while reading the BB. Trying to pump the shares to offload to suckers was his forte after all.

Https://steelnews.biz/aerospace-needs-more-nickel-capacities-limited/?utm_source=twitter

Also usually narrows on declining nickel prices.

Anyone worked out the oil tanking specifics yet? If an fpso has a 500k tank & the ocean tanker has a capacity of 2M barrels, does the tanker wait around for over 2 weeks to get loaded?

Well you could probably add 50% to costs given the inflation in the oil industry, so discount that @ 10% plus there is the brent price, of which could probably add a discount of 10% seeing as the oil will cost more to refine & then there is the transportation costs, likely to China or US, $15+ don't know.

So, rough estimate, 70$ sales, 9% royalty - 35$ opex + capex, 10$ transport = 12$ X 0.74 tax payment = 8.88 per barrel X share of production is 90M average earnings based on plateu rate?

Now, before people start disagreeing with me, it's just a guess to answer the question. I just thought i'd post something other than a 'sunny weather' presentation pitch. As stated before production numbers aren't even set in stone, nor is the royalty rate.

I'm pickedpeck and i'm not a bickerer, i just go off on tangents in a rage when I am proven wrong! Show me any laterite project that has received financing that is also 1% grade, especially an highly capital intensive acid leaching one! You are wrong and encouraging people to believe otherwise makes you either naive or as bad as J.M. Even a cheaper electric arc ferronickel, or pig iron project on it likely will cost $725M plus a 2nd furnace & it will produce 70% less nickel than aguaia.

Vermehlo was a good story when Nickel price was high and is now a liability. Allocating 16M$of borrowed cash for an asset fesability that's not getting developed and will be waay out of date by the time it does, when the company is short at least 70M$ on something that will make money is utter stupidity.Trying to put a posotive spin on that is, well it's just plain, manipulative ramping. I can see why the toys have gone out the pram.

To do with factoring in vermelho, why was this thread started with the implication that it adds to the value, it doesn't and has proved to be & continues to be quite the opposite.

I can see how new shareholders could be upset of their 100k production narrative to entice buying having massive holes in it and resort to bickering as the facts run away from them. The truth is, there should be no value in for it, as you said over the economics of it being a globally inferior grade to current production, continuing to waste money on a fesability study shows that if anything it removes value, about 16m$ worth against dilution according to the latest RNS. If you disagree, you are a r',tard. FYI I do have shares but only a 1/3 position as I expect to take the rest on a placing. That is unless the shareholders can be persuaded to j.v line 2 for money to complete line 1.

Well, pickedpeck, either being called a ramper of a negative poster, I am merely pointing out that extrapolating from the company website is a fools errand. Even if they could high grade the deposit, that's what everybody does at first, so you have maybe 1.2% deposit to develope against an Indonesian 1.7. the only rational conclusion here is that you have to wait for resource depletion, like aguaia, which is being developed as it's in line with global grades. Which 10 years ago were what, 2%?

Waste of time, vermehlo in my opinion. Nickel is not rare so if you want to develope a resource, grade is everything;

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/projects/vermelho-nickel-cobalt-project/

Now, why would you develop a 1% resource when the big money is developing 1.5-1.7%?

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/HPAL-development-project-in-Indonesia_tbl1_356950657

Referencing the company website on develppement costs, of 500M£ for 25Kt, against industry standard of 2.3Bn$ current for a 50ktpa setup is just lunacy, it's quite clearly a lie to attract investment. I would also add, that vermehlo is probably a decade away at least from production and the bfs is a wate of time!

So answer me this; Why is vermelho in your calculations? In a wider market context,now, should all the phillipines 1% ore be in peoples global output forecasts also, along with all indonesian 1% that isn't being mined???

Here's your 15 minute chart;

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yQp9qRNy/

Obviously you are in for a swing but can see the masses of volume around 20p and the most traded price at 21.7 where the shares sold off to today. Technical bounce in my opinion, spouting takeover rumours or 'insider' trades is just narrative of price movement unless proven otherwise.

However, not being profficient in spotting these moves I can see how the price could oscilate between the 2 ranges of most traded price for the next few weeks prior to actual news as people trade volatility......

Big volume spike on nvpt at end of trading Thursday, could be imminent news on something, but doesn't seem to correlate well on the chart....

@ strow; unlike others, I actually post links for verification! The similarities are, theres a funding gap and like with mallee the proposed way forward might not be pleasing to existing shareholders. Unlike mallee though, hzm does have line 2 as a bargaining chip!

Might want to look at mallee resources on asx;

https://malleeresources.com.au/investors/announcements/

Gives an idea of where broker target likely comes from. They had a 'funding gap' and couldn't get shareholders to agree to an equity raise. Now it's in administration pending a sale.....

What are the chances they can use the, imo, pointlessly allocated 16m$ at this stage allocation in vermelho to help fund the project?

So, we know cannacord & peel hunt think placing, which seems pretty industry standard.

Glencore are the offtake partner, tungsten west, have, got offtake partner loans along with other companies in the past so wouldn't necessarily rule this out as at least a portion.

Bridging loan is off the table given the high interest and fast payback demand.

Any other thoughts?