Member Info for headder

Hah, good set of results! Good one.

There a link to the recording of the zoom meeting from yesterday chaps?

Had bad signal myself, something like forecasting operating margin of 12% and that h2 last year was 10% with £160M operating profit? Did I also hear there were 150M receivables from land sales etc. due, at least partly in q1?

Trading update Wednesday.... Chance to break the range of the last year or test the low. Break & hold above £7 would be a nice supprise at this stage.....

Congratulations holders, I was thinking a placing was in the pipeline so have been sitting on the fence.

Not investing now.

Is this in a P/E of 13 now? Skimmed the results this am but didn't have time.... Saw last year had exceptional restructuring items affecting the numbers.

You should Google how often analyst price targets are correct & also if buying shares in companies with declining share prices is a successful strategy. I'm sure if you hold for a few years here you will be fine but your strategy in general is terrible......

How did you come up with your target price?

Mine is 14£ and I will probably get it when the tax loss selling comes end of December. No point buying in with the copy traders after the recent investment.....

I'm confused... At £126 a ton for throwing away, basically land (soil, rocks etc.) Why aren't ships picking it up and exporting it?

No worries, I find all CEO's are like sports promoters. I'm sure the company will get sorted out eventually.

Key points which need change before any serious funds invest & why there is no rush:

Earnings/ profit on sales declining while inventory rising.

Cash & inventory don't cover short term liabilities so they desperately need sales to cover debt.

Plenty of time to wait & see and perhaps the market makers chip in for the 'equity' research fee's because the spread of 0.05p makes it look like they have some shares to sell.....

The market pricing has since reduced morbox and they had some cash impairments. You need to look at the cashflows, net debt will increase until the payment in a few days before coming down again if the market doesn't deteriorate further. Also, they use net debt/ebitda and accounting tricks to stay net assets by increasing non cash assets. They are basically at a point where all their current earnings are mandated by the lender to pay off debt.

What I would mainly be worried about is this;

1. Will they mark down their increased inventory to generate sales?

2. What effect will their newer kettle controls have on their existing controls business & would they make more or less per unit sold?

They are currently a zombie company until sales prove otherwise....

So, given the fact that as a company they are likely always going to make small acquisitions when the balance sheet allows, how would you even, currently, value this company anyway given the risks?

Halved in value because it was way over valued given the 16% hit to earnings from tax & wage increases. I calculate, currently is on a pe ratio of 12, with perhaps a 6, 5, 4 ish% growth over the next few years before an implied terminal growth rate of 3%. I expect, including dividend, a 20% return over 3 years from where we are and will be looking to buy at 14£ inside an isa. If the shorts cover & the price goes over 17£ then take the money. The company generated 5% return on capex invested over the last 3 years, so expect the 200 odd investment in assumed needed regional production completed by h2 2026 to add about 10m£ to profitability on top of new stores with stable l4l sales as the stores are geographically saturated.

ofcourse, if you just look at price and fibonacci's on charts or have a different model then you may have a different expectation........ About the shorts, it's pointless selling shares here at fair value now so I would expect weakness below 14£ to be where we see short covering with a low probability the budget next week will lower employer NI contributions which would lead to a rush to cover......

You are right, they are going from 14M£ anual payment of a term loan to paying 10m£ per annum off the rcf balance prior to refinancing it at some point. Also, according to the adjusting items of a cash nature, there was near 4M£ there in h1 also. Plenty of time to see how this goes I just don't see the value here yet and think I will wait to see how h2 goes and see if they lower prices more to help run down the inventory. This is only a viable investment if it shows it can comfortably run down the debt and also if the ceo reinvests after selling at 3£.

That's why there is selling pollack, the forward risk!

Hello, skimming the balance sheet this am, why should I invest here? They lost 4M£ in h1, of which 2M£ was reinvested in the business (how have they managed to inflate pp&e 4M given depreciation of 2M£!?). Yes, it is h2 weighted but cyclically, I just don't see value here at this price, explains why the ceo didn't reinvest and I would say the large buildup of inventories will likely be sold at a discount. 50-50 they will need to do a placing next year but I can't value it with an inflated inventory until I see what it sells for which will affect margins.... Hope nobody is over invested here. Key points= Debt up 4M£, inventories up 5M£.

You do realize that most Eastern Europeans have been building their homes from steel frames & panelling don't you because it's cheaper. Sounds to me you are just tight fisted and want all the money to yourself, a stereotypical architect who is obtuse about extra costs who eagerly exploits people who don't understand the value of their labour.

Anyway, back on topic, looks like we are in for another budget of inflationary policy, then, which will worry the BOE, keep interest rates h4l and devalue the £. Good for dip buying international companies IMO.

Oh, and in response to the chest beaters, I have been to building sites to as a welder and most people are English. And yes, immigration has helped greatly since 2008, we are so much better off with stagnant growth with inflation, our young get nice degrees now, staying in education till 21 where less than half can get jobs from it while others in Glasgow etc. are on the 4th generation of benefit living and aren't being incentivised to move for work.

If the boe continues with QT next year as planned, selling £70Bn gilts at a likely 40% loss, as is the plan & the government in their leftist overspending campaign can only afford it through inflationary measures which put wages & goods up, will the boe then up it's QT and crush the government. Direct wage tax is of course deflationary as employees don't sell goods and thus can't raise prices but this is not what has happened the last few years....

I have tried baiju, it is & will remain a Chinese thing. It's basically gin made from rice. Most baiju consumed costs about £2 for half a litre and is drunk specifically at meal times & neat from a shot glass, kind of how working class Russians drink vodka. Sales of premium brands should increase with middle income earners if policy creates them.

Well casapinos, with tax set to hit around 38pc of GDP, the economy slowing and £70BN qt by the boe with spending cuts & tax increases coming, I see housing (as stated) as an area the government & bank of England will focus on to prop up the economy I the coming year..... Time will tell

The company at full year guided around 5% growth and fcf of about 2.4 Billion£ for 2026. Also, EPS was £1.20 pre exceptionals, debt to EBITDA around 3.5X.

This is a large, mature company which dominates it's main market, PE of 15 if it meets guidance is fair and thus a reasonable purchase for the yield & likely inflation performing share price.