Member Info for headder

You are missing the retail traders monk; gone from 40 to 37% since my last post (plus hargreaves I think which is a retail investor broker dealer).... Don't think any will be bidding up shares when retail investors usually churn when prices stagnate, dropping the price on low volume. Also, about low volume, this share could be subject to large moves in either direction in the instance of a liquidity event and will likely just trickle back to the mean. Like the tariff selloff. Look at the chart, looks bearish & like it may retest the low if it fails at the 0.32 fib level, don't know what the cause would be though. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vXFhbttQ/ Also, look at the 2 minute chart with volume. It clearly shows the large orders aren't moving the price & market makers are out there lifting the bid to sell to retail for a 5% mark up until the following trade marks the price back down again..... Might buy back some shares in the right environment......

If 570 breaks then 550 is the next logical level, needs to reclaim 600, the 20 week moving average to remain in an uptrend, or 615 on the daily but will have to see where it finishes Friday....

Https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/mortgage-lending-664

It's for bridging loans Bob, the kind people get to purchase houses while theirs is still tied up in a chain. It is supposed to precede mortgage lending stats but is noisy.... Another thing I like here is the low public ownership at just 6% of float, compared to double at persimmon meaning if people want shares there are potentially less sellers if only £120M are held by people who typically hold shares for less amounts of time....

Not that i'm a pumper but I think this stock is going to double in the next 2 years;https://x.com/_Headder/status/1926280104704885014

Why;

1.Long term debt will reduce over the coming years.

2.The company buys back shares.

3.Gross margin should improve going forward compared to the previous years.

4.A higher asset turnover ratio compared to the previous years as sales volumes improve.

5.The 2 largest share holders are hedge funds which have a track record of outperforming the S&P 500.

6.Mortgage lending has been below trend for 2 years which should extend the next housing cycle which I see as just beginning.

Just waiting to see if the gap fills in the 5.50 area before adding to my position.

Idk, I think this could be a £1 stock in 3 years but it worries me that Bartlett sold a chunk at 3.20 and doesn't plan to add back a decent chunk at a seeming inflection point. 40% of the float is retail, I also don't think a large gain will happen without institutions taking most of the float.

You sure know your stuff monk. Now I've sold I bet this goes to 60p. Will probably wait to see what else is around though now I've sold. Wanted to purchase ashm recently but didn't have the cash. CEO has 32% of that, which also used to pay a fat dividend. Will wait for a retest of the 20dma & hope that was the cycle low. I usually work 60 hours a week, maybe I should make notes instead of trying to recall 3 years ago. Turned 20k into 19300 with this but did make a k from the drop to 50p although think had 6k then. The purpose of buying & selling shares is to make money so I'm always sceptical of insider trades .....

Well, I'm out. Just can't get over the CEO pumping the stock a few years back, forecasting a doubling of revenue over 5 years, selling £3.2M of shares and not even planning to buy any back. I'm overlooking the fundamentals here as it makes me think, with the boards low investment they are just planning to acquire more businesses for the sole purpose of increasing their salary. Good luck everyone, even the idiots.

Well, skimmed over the results again, I view kettle controls as a kind of staple as nobody buys a kettle unless it breaks & main market population is in decline. Still looks to me that the bull case is they keep paying down debt & keep stable margins on billi/ controls & increase the dividend.....

Need large insider buying to convince the market of a long term thesis given their track record, if they do as said above I can see this back at £1 in 3 yeas giving a 30% annualised return. I think the unregulated control will be low margin & not substantial to the entire business.

By lots of metrics, a decrease in margins & profit looks pretty bad, making this still speculative, however there are a few green shoots in there & will have a thorough look after work.

He can make all the acquisitions he wants, but, if the company really has passed trough earnings, we can all see the debt pay down takes a large chunk of FCF, which is £3M a QTR, plus interest, if it's such a great investment, why doesn't he buy? He could have over 7M shares for the 1M he sold 4 years ago. How else can you trust him? How would an investment fund?

Maybe they will wait until after earnings, but if the ceo doesn't buy a decent amount I will look to reduce, got a decent chunk of shares here by my standards after seeing the T.L selling & the guy's prior steadfastness about tariffs...

Am interested as to why the ceo hasn't bought shares yet. Look, he sold over 1M shares at the top in 21, so when is he going to buy? Closed period for 30 days prior to results.....

Net cash 75% & PE/ex cash 5?

There has to be lots of people that have sold £m's of shares short while watching yields rise feeling like heroes. Now I'll bet they are looking at US yield plummet and are praying for the government 'doom loop' to continue to weigh on yields as that's probably the only thing keeping this down now, apart from shorts......

Https://app.piqsuite.com/reuters/us-energy-secretary-attacks-sinister-net-zero-goals-singling-out-britain-2025-02-17-16-47-40 He's correct in what he is saying, but he is talking to deaf ears if he thinks anyone is going to admit it. Phase 2 of our 'net zero' (discounting beurocratic esg mandates & racketeer like planning costs) economic destruction is carbon taxes, already paid by motorists, coming to business & consumer alike in 2027, which the government literally wants to throw away pumping co2 in the ground whilest creating a load to do it.

Well, with the cost of new gas power plants also inflating I wouldn't worry about long term electricity price forecasts, I believe long term gas contracts for lng could end up setting the price for generation if cfd's are removed as that would flatten the price volatility. Also, a lot of new projects will be delayed till after 2030 if they even get built with grid infrastructure bottlenecks. Could be something to ask at the AGM if this is something they have modelled in their forecasting

Look at $VNM etf on nasdaq. This is going much lower.....

Does anyone understand how this, tax, is going to work? If the wholesale price is above a certain level it is taxed 75%, or if the cfd max price is exceeded, the govt gets the money anyway. WTF?

I think maybe tomorrow would be better for anyone wanting to buy here, so you get the buffer of a dividend against any further drops as usually around ex dividend dates, shares fall.

A quick look at American axle, to me seems like it benefits them more than us, given the high debt, meaning we are increasingly geared towards a drop in interest rates. Doesn't look to bad though.....