The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Sturm, how many companies have actually benefitted from buybacks? The only thing I can think of are large cap, multi-billion tech co's, where the ceo's can sell their performance shares etc. Besides, tech investments are high growth, forever, eledgedly. Buybacks helping resource stocks are a theory in my view, with very little evidence. This PE12 co, Sepl say, if they did buybacks while growing then that didn't add any pe metrics ultimately did it? Nobody turns around and says, 'well it's pe 12 but would be pe 10 if no buybacks happened years ago. As for taxes, while I agree with you there, I still think resource investors shouldn't support warrant selling prices with buybacks etc. as if people believe their money should be additionally used to support a share price because it's cheap then they should buy additional shares themselves in my view. Benefits the board members if anyone.
Could I somehow sign over custody of my shares to a ringleader to uhhm, 'represent my interests', or would a simple corporate action vote do on my online brokerage account, you know, under the actions menu, like with general meetings? I really think, as a large state, that the Italians will try to nickel and dime via. a takeover. And yes, let's not forget the private equity guys, usually lenders or company pollisher-upper -flippers, I can't help but frown at them! What about the Russians, could they somehow be after our shares to avoid sanctions. Or the Argies, but Russian ones trying to start a war??
People generally buy resource stocks for yield. Buybacks are silly if you ask me in finite resources if people are ultimately after a dividend. Looks like yield is secured for the next few years and as long as the company goes through a capex cycle to increase production and while onp isn't a reliable option. Now is 8.5% too cheap? You could argue that at 46kbpd it could go a lot higher but when would that happen, 2030? And what is the chance, 50%? So, at a 15% discount to 2030, what is the added value now? Sepl at has similar medium term growth prospects to ptal and trades @ 10% yield, it just falls short long term unless it can make acquisitions, like the Exxon deal it's trying to get approval for. Not advertising, just saying. Happy to hold here but won't add unless I can get 10% to feel like I have got a good deal, given the fact I think 80$ Brent will likely be the trading range of oil for the year and futures pricing is below that.
Looks to me that if people are bragging about having lots of shares and trying to social proof others into believing the share price is under threat of going higher due to a low-ball offer for the OM money, looks to my paranoid eye that these 'investors' are just speculating on the court hearing and looking to fomo people into buying more shares to give themselves a cushion to sell into while chasing the next 'hot' 'investment'. 80% of traded shares are held less than a year. Now if one was so concerned with a share price near term, are they the 20%?
The Directors seemingly allowed Brown to continue to 'run' the company while his visa was suspended.
https://saharareporters.com/2023/04/24/seplat-director-resigns-board-amid-scandal-issues-nigerian-immigration-service
Total subversion attempt.
2 extra placings to build a plant, that, and an investor base that has lost confidence in the, behind the scenes, management to deliver the main project without, even further, substantial dilution which the plant was (ironically) built to avoid. Vanadium price is o.k. Not sure about doldrums, progress is still being made & we have been promised a favorable wind here, but operations which don't produce free cashflow and with needs of financing in the current rate environment are generally seen as un investable, or trading vehicles.
Seeing as we are in a global interest rate raising cycle which moves the cost of capital considerably higher, where risky ventures are less likely to get funding and a demand destructive recession is likely next (why commodity dependant nations are constricting supply), you have to ask yourself why you would invest in a pre-fesability company which wants to mine a commodity not in short supply and which is highly cyclical with economic booms and busts.
Good to see a rise in volume this past Month but for nothing more than to lead to a lower high will require NB to deliver on his promises.
1. Profitability of current plant and no supply/ sales constraints, hopefully @ 7M$fcf,
2. Updated mineral reserves showing long mine life which can be used for reserves based lending of phase 1,
3. Offtake agreement for the carbon black
4. feasability study confirming capex requirements and opex costs.
5. (for things to really take off) Lower interest rates and the loosening of lending standards prior to financing.
For me no.1 is most important and has me considering Nicks credibility into question given it's performance.
His name is LOK, read the link!
https://www.livescience.com/pyrite-real-gold.html
So, which pumper/s on here are ben turney & which are the real ones? Ben is the mining ceo version of jim carey in dumb & dumber don't you know.
Your welcome.
True value, hmmm. You are basically speculating on investing in a land package, like say canary wharf in the 80's? before it becomes a big financial hub that people want to develop and will pay dearly for. True value, not what we would like to see, with share flipper financing @ 7p, low volume and trading@11p for months now, you kind of get accustomed to seeing this as fair value here. Moody with his easy salary plus share options likely in the pipeline is nothing substantial in the grand scheme here, its either no fid & a payout, FID & no/dilution or the fate of argos resources. A £250M payment to eliminate doubt of dilution and fid with navitas, at fid should be about 1/3 of npv & 80p but as for right now you have to discount the risks. 600M$ @ FID w/50% chance of 200M$ dilution @ 11p + 50% chance of no FID 2024 but 2025 at DCF 25% should be 25p today but look above......
Patience needed for the buyback to soak up the selling then I guess. Putting in a limit order @ 41p for a final top up, if it hits, happy days. It's only us pi's buying now anyway......
He thinks the end of month results where the bond repayments & announcement of shareholder returns should add 50p to the share price but with banks now more reluctant to lend and interest rates possibly rising further then a 40p sp rise is the maximum.
Seems a bit too bullish to me and I expect that the results will just provide lubrication for those who fear their heads stuck in the railings to get out, which if you read between the lines of the drunkards ramble, that's where the lingering sentiment is at.......
Glad the share buybacks aren't far off. Brent sentiment has hit 10!
New presentation coming out too, definatly something in about SL as was in the last few. Probably some form of reiteration as you can't add an npv if you don't have a forecast production..... Hopefully shenandoah is coming along in budget and on time for us all.
Maybe everyone read the broker note which valued the plant @ 5p, stating 4M$ earnings & got spooked as Bridgen reckons it can produce 8M$. You'd think, being the company broker they would both be aligned.
One day we will all be supprised because the company is self funding, it's just nobody knows when that is or how much.
UK budget is proposed to fund Ukranian arms over the next 2 years @ 5£Bn a year, implying the govt expects the war to last that long. Get used to there being hostilities in East Ukraine, this time last year Russia was making fast progress and now has been holding a line for Months, probably in the hope that Europe will want to pressure a deal when the gas runs out next winter.
Been some big trades recently if you look on the london stock exchange website for FAR, looks like a fund is pulling out. I've already filled my boots & need 15p to sell to break even. Holding on as I believe in the project, it's a bit rough but with the extra warrants & subscription shares etc. I think 30p should be reached after phase 1 financing but calculated for 100M$ and think this could be next year.....
On reflection I was way too early and not expecting the second placing. Think the markets could go a lot lower without a rate cut from the fed, pulling FAR down more, so am hanging on to my hat. £1.5M in value lost because someone wanted to sell 10K£ is a joke but that's what happens with low liquidity.