Member Info for headder

I'm sure the short term price is just market making adjustments given the low volume. Also, long term projections are almost never correct. Bit of a binary bet here if your honest with yourself & if FID was going to be easy it would be here by now, many things need to align such as finding contractors who don't mind arg sanctions & funding being key hurdles to name a few.

Can anyone justify the soon to be £600M company valuation, given the declining margins, due to the cyclical nature of its businesses and the high interest charge on it's debt that will take probably the rest of the decade to address?

I know everyone is in for the long term here that subscribed for extra shares, I am just a bit confused as to what the thesis is here, to say other cyclicals?

Don't forget about the whopper share purchase by the Bridgen. Don't forget, currently half the value of the shares here already, from broker forecast, are in the project so as for something which he didn't have to do, 3 years salary purchase shows, unlike most aim CEO's, he really does believe in the value of the project.

Seems I had things a little wrong. Now i'm back from the day job I had a look;

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/rockhopperexploration2/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=441&newsid=266266

The old well report which I never previously read

& An article about the various challenges of waxy crude, which makes up around 20% of heavy crude production;

https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/69274

Why would you heat the underwater equipment when the oil comes out at around 40° or do I have this wrong? I was referring to the ship to ship transfering & offloading. Is there any information anywhere?

Any experts here know how the oil will be transported?

Read on Google a while back the most common practice was to mix with light oil so the mixture can be piped.

Watched a video on yt which covered the south east American continental shelf as the next area of major exploration and noticed in the comments someone claiming to have worked on Sealion saying the oil needs heating up. Seems mad doesn't it?

Not much to say, it's the most active boards usually with the worst performance!

So, concentrate supply; sorted. Fesability; 9 Months or so. Profitability?; Broker has negative earnings for 2024 but that is probably due to fesability cost, should be making a few M$, at least it's not going broke like BMN.

Future demand prospects? Maybe an increase in demand for vanadium to offset co2 emissions from steel regulations pressured by the West and a low likelyhood of vrfb adoption.

Exactly, unless they split the shares, but assuming the market is a discounting machine of cash flows, for a rights issue @ 20p, you would likely get a rebate to 40p, so can sell your shares and that's 2/3 of the likely alloted subscription rights right there! It's my base case if I'm honest but also think there is a high chance the board are trying to pull the rug from under us but need the shares on the floor to do so.

How about a rights issue? Synthomer, a loss making chemical company recently did a 6-1 split for £360M. Also, a rights issue gives all shareholders a chance to participate. I'd rather the company go down this route than take on more risk.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22dIkWYUAxQ&t=1s

Link to sirius minerals project build (anglo americans).

Key comparisons;

1. HZM mine build = 2 1/2 years, SXX over 10?

2. HZM mine cost = 725M$, SXX 10BN£.

3. HZM= nickel, SXX = potash.

Key takeaways; SXX should have sold the project before biting off more than they could chew (take note CUSN?).

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EU-Launches-Carbon-Border-Tax-To-Push-Greener-Global-Trade.html

Bullish Anything Brazil goods wise really, 79% of electricity there is renewable! Also, 27% ethanol in petrol!

What do your alter ego's rover & strummer Jones think?

Wasarunner/ aka, Rover; Worst case, I think is tin foil hat theory -> lamancha, glencore & orion are in a big conspiracy with the board to pull the rug from under us all & will delist the shares at 20p to reinvest £150M @ 20p, which grossly undervalues the company.

Result= Well, the shareholders currently have 60% of freefloat (enough to control the voting outcomes if all in agreement), they invest the needed capital & end up with 95% of the shares. Effect= 20p shareprice = a foreward pe ratio of 1 in 2027 & nothing for vermehlo!

Surely the regulators will see through this and with all the money at stake it would be highly likely the regulators block such a transaction by allowing a sort of open tender process (at least to existing shareholders) or something before allowing such an act of theft? and on a London market! You can be sure however, that if this is the case then every penny the company earns will become a dividend but I would fully expect such a transaction to backfire. Reason being, releasing ambiguous statements and manipulating the shareprice to buy £1's for 20p and using 60% voting power to wipe out other shareholders who wouldn't get an opportunity on the same terms is fraud.

That's why my base case is for the shares to recover to 40p once selling stops, as the above information put's a ceiling here imo as 40 + 20 + 20 + 20 / 3 = 33.33p average after placing & Mcap 200M£ which is still a 75% discount to where the shares fell.

And if you can read the ft article, you will see that rio started will low ball offers which got rejected twice by the then other major shareholders!

Turqoise hill was bought out by rio tinto in 2022 after cost overruns, 12 bagger from the low!

Here we have the motley fool saying not to buy the shares over the uncertainty when a massive 67% funding gap emerged;

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/15/why-shares-of-turquoise-hill-are-crashing-today/

Takeover from rio was for 2/3 of project npv, a 50% gain from where the shares even fell;

https://www.ft.com/content/953a78c7-5656-466c-80e0-a9f978ffb0c6

Chart here;

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/TRQ/interactive-chart

Now, we know the reworked fesability studies are coming half way through November, the base case NPV of aguera 14000$ Nickel is 750M, X2/3 & -200M$ liabilities = 86p a share!

Looks like Billy is trying to jedi mind weeble us all.

Banking covenants clearly state cost overrun issues must be met prior to fund drawdowns, bond financing I believe is only for revenue producing companies and thus we can deduce the company needs around 150M$ which will most likely be from a placing. Doesn't necesarily change the NPV as production is only delayed by a year, so npv= -8% with mine life extended a year into the future (base case). I expect funding to commence in about a month, as soon as the study is done.

I'm expecting to take part.

To be honest, I'm here for a rights issue and want to invest, but anything under 45p I am voting no as an asset sale would be preferable.

Any raise below 45p I will be voting against!

Any raise below 45p is basically theft in my view, 45p gives a 30% discount to equivalent value prior to the drop and my target once selling clears.

Billy ray, your 52M$ assumption doesn't take into account the breach of debt covenants, by going 16% over budget. This means a larger capital raise is likely required to satisfy bank and lender covenants who wouldn't necessarily up their lending amount.

It was an ambiguous RNS as it doesn't go into details of debt conditions but 150M$ seems the likely needed amount, taking the cost overrun facility into account. Hope this helps.

Just a reminder, but a placing at 20p of 150M$ gives a discount of over 80% NAV, as you can see in the last presentation, that's half of what the shares were trading at prior to the bad news.......