Member Info for HarChris

The most important thing investors need to grasp is that ECR are no longer at the mercy of the AIM market, they aren’t reliant on bucket shop raises anymore as they are about to become a producer at the lowest of costs and have a £1.5m safety net having raised recently.

Raglan’s costs are looking like $2000 per day which is equivalent to 0.4 ounces of gold produced, there is the possibility of 10 times that much gold produced hence a 90% margin.

Evidence of even half of that in the coming months and ECR become a self-funding debt-free gold producer at the height of the gold bull market - no wonder the share price is gathering momentum.

I said rightly or wrongly as it may just turn out that SGC, being chemo-refractory, simply isn't highly effective against such a heterogenous difficult to treat population. Of course I'd want it to be, it would be much more eye-catching and headline grabbing and p1a with just a handful of patients gave hope that might be the case but if it's simply the reality that no tech that delivers Dox directly to the tumour is going to significantly shrink tumours in SGC across a large percentage of patients then the best one can hope for is the high disease control rate that we're seeing. Something that therefore delivers considerably more time for patients with a kinder side-effect profile is a relatively great outcome, just not what I hoped was possible.

If that's the case we might see stronger data from the other two indications, especially TNBC where we know Dox is actually highly effective in combination treatment. SGC is the low hanging fruit due to there being no standard of care and poor ORR, DCR and PFS amongst the treatments generally taken forward but that doesn't necessarily mean it will show stronger efficacy vis a vis STS/TNBC, just that the bar is so much lower for accelerated approval. So positive data in the coming months is certainly possible, especially against expectations which have reduced slightly across the average investor.

As to your final question it's a reasonable conclusion for ava6000, sure, although it's not clear cut either way. But I also believe in this bolstered Avacta board to sell the chemistry-based advancements they have made since getting their first molecule into clinic. So at worst ava6000 ends up simply being the pathfinder that leads to the breakthrough drugs 6103 and beyond and at best, the low hanging fruit of SGC and STS still end up partnered off and approved for their more niche indications.

'Not taking up the challange (sic) of explaining the complete absence of queues of Pharma execs outside Avacta HQ?'

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That's your assumption. That's why you sold at 53p and why I brought it up as a reference point, because that's the bet from that level - assume rightly that there's still no big pharma interest, no deals to land in the coming months and hence a placing at some point in March/April/May below that 53p and selling at that price will be the correct decision.

To claim it as fact however is misleading unless you are involved in those sorts of discussions behind the scenes which would mean you couldn't make such statements and hence you aren't. So your inference is that there's nothing about to land, there are no deep negotiations ongoing that will shift sentiment back in the positive direction and hence you've sold. Someone like Wyn would say that we should always infer such a thing until the opposite is proven (ie from a deal) - fine but don't claim a lack of interest from BP as fact, it isn't.

I wasn't one of those posters pretending I was blown away by the data release in December. I wanted (rightly or wrongly) data that left no ambiguity re next stages / gaining accelerated approval and I don't think that's what we got with the 1b data. I do however see it as unequivocal proof of the platform technology and strong enough data due to the high disease control rate and prolonged progression free survival to lead to a deal in the coming months (within current cash period) and I still think there's a reasonable chance that some 1b data from STS & TNBC will surprise to the upside this quarter/next.

Almost everyone agrees that 6103 holds enormous promise so the discussion / uncertainty is over what happens in the meantime and how we get there (to initial data later in 2026). If none of the above goes our way there will be some further short term pain in the interim but I still think it'll be minimal from 53p and if any of the above does materialise re deals and future 1b data we'll be up and well away from 53p.

That's my general take at this stage and posting it once is enough.

If you look at the structure the first phase gives SQM a chance to explore at relatively low risk, parting with $9m in total before fully committing.

Beyond that there's no cheap equity. The next 10% will cost ~$13m and if they progress to DFS we're looking at around $20m for another 10%. Progression through the phases would give us a strong indication of what the eventual final 50% would be worth ie multiples of $200m/8p a share.

Still a long way off for that most likely but a great left field RNS could land at any time.

The placing has taken all the pressure off the production start date, it's just not as important now.

It's the height of the rainy season, whether that affects Raglan we don't know but I don't think we'll see a big pump towards 31st Jan, more a steady build from here through to say late March when we'll start to get an idea of what Raglan might produce on a monthly basis.

Evidence that 4+ ounces per day (and hence all group costs met + additional cash) is achievable through 2026 and we're off to the races, no evidence of that (/signs that it'll be less than half that) and enthusiasm will be tempered.

It's also worth pointing out that the brokers have Lithium Ridge valued at $40m for now / 1.61p. Does anyone think 1.61p of the current 4.3p is that of LR? I don't.

It's also worth noting that it's now a good 16 months since the JV was agreed and 4.5 months since the exploration drilling by SQM commenced so we're nearing further confirmation (or not) re that favourable comparison with Azure. Strong assay results and I think we'll see that $40m and some start to be priced into the Andrada valuation.

And this is coming from someone irritated by Doc bigging up 1p constantly in the autumn… some sort of raise was always going to be needed first, production was a long way off then, gold was a good $1000/oz lower and not quite so definitely going north etc.

Circumstances are totally different now and credit has to go to Nick for that - clearly ECR weren’t able to command market rate when it came to equity raises but Tulloch’s managed to get ECR into position where they no longer have to rely on bucket shop AIM placings going forward.

Deserves a lot of credit.

It already has exploded into action… what matters now is not increases in Au and Ag price but a long period averaging $4k.

We’re seeing that reflected in sentiment here. ECR has never shaken off a placing like it has this time around despite it being the most shares ECR has ever placed - nobody got an entry below the strike price of 0.26p and in just two weeks we’re pushing on for 20% above that level.

Successful operational execution over the coming couple of quarters and 1p+ is not out of the question.

‘ Is it not fair/wise/prudent for any new members to this BB to be aware of these potential outcomes prior to perhaps buying?’

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I don’t think it’s anyone’s responsibility to babysit prospective holders, no. If they came on here and asked what the financial options are going forward and if a raise was possible/likely etc and holders rushed to deny any chance of it and gave a totally one-sided view then there would be reason to put that right, I wouldn’t let that sort of misinformation pass by unchecked either.

That’s not what’s happening… and that’s not a defence for posting 30 odd times a day on here in recent days either. That’s spam.

There’s no one sharing their investment case and the reasons they are holding at anywhere like the frequency that Thorn is, no one that comes even close.

That’s fine but you’re one of only a couple who feel the need to share those same thoughts ad infinitum. If you’d said the other day ‘I sold for x, y or z reasons’ only the handful of agitators would have responded and then the bb would go quiet again until the next article was shared to discuss but instead you’ve repeated your reasons for selling and how you feel time and time and time again.

It’s the repetition that’s so mind numbingly tedious.

When the AISC was omitted from the most recent operational update I assumed the worst, before I was pointed to this text that was included in the interims prior:

Evolving our cost and quarterly reporting framework

As Andrada's operational footprint expands, we continue to refine the way we report performance to ensure stakeholders receive information that is accurate, reliable, and useful for valuation. Quarterly cost and pricing estimates, while previously included, have proven increasingly misleading due to short reporting cycles and normal fluctuations in grade, recoveries, shipment timing, inventory movements, and foreign-exchange rates. These factors can distort the underlying progress we are making on efficiency and margin improvement. To address this, we will no longer publish quarterly cost and pricing estimates in operational updates. These metrics will continue to be reported in full at interim and year-end results, where the necessary context can be provided. Quarterly updates will remain substantive and transparent, focusing on production, project execution, and development progress, which together offer a more accurate reflection of the Company's progress.

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For that reason there is no read to be had from the omission.

‘ Are you still in Stagecoach?’

No because it got bought out, one of quite a few holdings that have been acquired over the years.

Avacta will be another :)

Working having $35k in your head as that’s about the level in which Andrada is likely breaking even at the group level, around $35k. And with production for now just over 1000t/py it means $1m cash in the bank for each $1 increase in tin price.

Makes the maths easy.

As it happens I’m around break even on Avacta but it isn’t relevant because I’m not attempting to influence in the way those posters quite clearly are. I don’t share any trades so there’s nothing to play along with but if they choose to and are going to post so much then we might as well follow along, right?

You don’t sell and then absolutely dominate the bb the next day with 44 comments unless you want to have some influence.

It’s fine anyway, it’s just a bit of fun D, they are big boys that can handle themselves. No need to rush to their defence like some BFF.

For those interested (probably few of you) Wyn sold out Monday at about 56p and Thorn Tuesday at 53p ish. Most won't care but as they like to have influence and share their trading prowess I feel like following along. If they call it right we'll all hear about it so also fair to taunt a bit if we look back and see they watched it slide all the way down from 80p before selling the bottom !

It's really very solid, should be enough cash to reach the point where ABDX can stand on their own two feet so hopefully out of the cycle of progress - placing- progress - placing.

Considerably derisked, I think this is an excellent entry.

You sold yesterday and have posted 41 times on here so far today - are you sure you're confident in your decision?

Well done :)

Tin's at $54k, I'm getting carried away.

I think 'there wasn't a deal last month so why would there be next month?' is an early contender too!