Member Info for HarChris

As a working tin and tungsten mine for decades it's possible that there's millions of tons of copper-rich tailings?

'Or a deal might not'

Sure, but with 6103 trial already having begun there's an argument to be had that the realistic worst case over the coming months is a runway extending placing at 50p to get us through to 2027... yet you're selling at 53p with all the potential upside options on the table to protect against a small downside risk?

Terrible R/R at this stage.

Some people seem to think the stock market is so readable and predictable and yet they are the only ones able to read it.

We’re now so close to 6103 entering human trials and really not that far off first data following. Sure it’s possible there are no major news in the coming months with a drift in SP and an eventual raise to take 6103 through phase 1 but there’s plenty of possibilities now we’re at this juncture.

A partnership re SGC could land anytime, so could a deal on a third party warhead, TNBC data in the coming months could surprise to the upside. An entity could finally decide to accumulate sensing a rapid escalation from 6103 first data to takeover - imagine that, an insti buying 5, 10, maybe 20m shares and then supporting a future raise…

We’re not stuck in P1a waiting for another cohort to be signed off by the safety committee, we’re well past that stage now, two drugs in clinic, plenty more being developed, well though 1b in one of them with a wait to find out who partners it through to phase 2.

Don’t be fooled into thinking by certain people on here that the coming months are in any way predictable. They’re not. And all it takes is one left field positive to turn sentiment on its head.

Don't forget the tin! Orders of magnitude higher than the 0.15% average grades at Uis - we're talking broadly 0.5%-4% with highs over 10% - grades rarely seen globally.

https://www.**********.com/articles/goldstone-gets-set-to-drill-big-in-ghana-4be2bbd

The common denominator here is also tungsten... what with this being a tin-tungsten mine and copper being the secondary component.

If they get this right my word there is the chance of life-changing returns here - and to be honest the board now with Theo at the helm and De Wet in CFO (comes across great re communication so far) looks mighty impressive. Chairman is also a role I think suits Jason well.

It really is exciting and share price could go anywhere over the coming months.

Trethkor, that's exactly what's happening, outsourcing their other assets to respected partners and zeroing in on their own operations at Uis.

This is a tightening of the strategy instead of attempting to spread modest finance far too thinly.

$11m being repaid with 3p shares only happens if there is no follow-on investment AND if Andrada can't repay it with cash.

Seeing as the tin operation has started throwing off cash and soon should be throwing off even large amounts then Andrada would almost certainly be trading much higher than today and would simply raise at some higher price (say 5p) and pay the rest off with their cash balance instead of resorting to all those 3p shares.

So returning $11m worth at 3p a share is highly unlikely.

Others’ options are completely open too, with the added benefit of being able to sell right now at higher than you did if they so choose. Don’t pretend that being out is the only thing that gives a trader and investor control, it’s not. Only suspension or a big holding relative to daily volume locks someone out.

Again that’s the market but as you share your positions and the thought behind them so vocally it’s reasonable to evaluate that strategy too.

Agree with some of that GG but how can you say it’s a toy for lifestyle when there’s no cash to pay the directors?

It’s alive because AIMSL consider it a better shot at getting their money back and a return, it means they’ve been sufficiently convinced a turnaround is possible against a near $5k/oz backdrop.

I’ve not personally bought back in but at the right price I might and that’s saying something given my views in the past.

In other words in the low 50s in case there was a big dilutive raise and no other catalysts materialising you were willing to give up 100%+ potential gains to protect against a potential 20% or so drop? And even then every chance the raise would land at the same price as Alastair’s ie barely any drop from that price you eventually sold out.

Again, I repeat, just from a trading perspective that is terrible R/R unless you can persuasively argue that the chance of no left field news landing over the coming months ending up in a sub 50p raise is sort of 80%+.

I’m sure most agree just from a trading perspective that looks poorly thought out… Wyn seems to agree hence the correcting course today.

If you’re willing to buy at whatever price it happens go to gap up to I can’t see how finally selling out at low 50s was in any way a good risk/reward considering you rate the chances of 6103 success as high… poor reasoning if you ask me.

My guess is that you were confident that negative sentiment had taken ahold enough to send Avacta crashing right through 50p near term, now you’re not so sure but probably quite stubborn and so will stay on the sidelines and stick to the ‘no entry before funding’ however detrimental it may end up being for you.

Nout wrong with that, just joining in the discussion.

It really is a different proposition right now.

Andrada is for the first time generating profit at the group level right now. In what has to be imminent the second jig plant will go live and by May with no hedge if tin price is still $45k we're talking ~$26m profit before tax (~1300t x $20/t margin). Who knows, maybe tin will remain as high as it is now even or the high grade feedstock becomes available which utterly transforms the picture further.

That alone arguably justifies the market cap but then we have SQM deep into their exploration campaign and now we have a partner for what we've always thought was a hugely promising asset in Brandberg West with the most exciting commodities out there (tin, tungsten, copper).

Still a few unknowns but the blue sky potential is, for the first time in a long while, looking truly attainable.

It's not really 0.5p per shares because of the warrants, it's 1p a share and if all the warrants are exercised it means they've raised £4m for 400m shares. That's great, myself and others predicted more like 1B shares at 0.25p to raise such an amount. The directors have also taken all their wages at 1p and it's not an egregious amount either for publicly limited company directors. And finally another 145m shares at 1p to pay down some of the debt.

Considering the hole GRL was in there's no way this news could have been any better.

Analyse and trade like many do but share every bit of reasoning over and over again on this BB? That's something only the two of you do.

Good to hear.

I guess it sums up why so many are irritated by you though Wyn. Tons of posts explaining why you've been selling and how you expect it to go lower and then the RNS we've all been expecting lands and you're immediately adding again. All those posts weren't exactly of much value were they when all it took is a well signposted RNS for you to reverse course?

Yes but this is a dynamic management team that don't rest on their laurels:

''That said, we are pleased to confirm that following the recruitment of a new Brand Director with a wealth of beauty buying experience we are in the process of broadening our supplier base which will allow us to focus on stock and basket structure for the brand, which we expect will lead to greater order numbers, improved AOV and Basket Margin, and enable us to move the division into operational profitability in 2026.''

All bears should take a day off and gracefully vacate the board to the holders instead of saying things like 'sell while you can' , they deserve that at the very least!

So you keep saying...

In reality the potential value of Brandberg West is off the scale but there's no way Andrada can fund its development at this stage. Just like Lithium Ridge if their partner finds what they expect the final 50% will be worth far higher than Andrada's macap essentially offering another huge free shot on goal.

Andrada can now fully develop the polymetallic potential of Uis whilst leaving their partners to explore Lithium Ridge and Brandberg west, an excellent diverse strategy.