Member Info for HarChris

Sure, Actuate therapeutics:

Primary Endpoint -

Best Overall Response Rate (ORR) per RECIST v1.1: The trial aimed to detect a 25% ORR (with >5 responders out of 32 patients providing 84.7% power to rule out a 10% ORR).

Result: ORR was 9.4% (95% CI: 2-25%), with 3 partial responses (PRs) and no complete responses. All responses occurred in the non-ACC subgroup (18% ORR in non-ACC with immune priming).

Met?: No, the primary endpoint was not met in the overall population.

Secondary Endpoints

Progression-Free Survival (PFS): Median PFS was 6.4 months (95% CI: 2.3-8.8 months), with a 12-month PFS rate of 43.6% in ACC vs. 16.7% in non-ACC.

Overall Survival (OS): Not reported in the available data.

Duration of Response (DoR): Median DoR was 6.9 months (range: 2.2-7.3 months) among responders.

Safety and Tolerability: The combination was generally manageable. Treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) included anemia (69%), nausea (50%), and neutropenia (44%). Grade 3+ TRAEs occurred in 59% of patients (e.g., anemia 19%, neutropenia 13%), with one grade 4 event (neutropenia 3%). Discontinuations due to toxicity were low (6%), and there were no treatment-related deaths.

Met?: Secondary endpoints were not framed with predefined success criteria like the primary endpoint, so they were not formally "met" or "not met."

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Christina has stated numerous times that Avacta will be using PFS as their primary endpoint and it's already far outshone the 6.4m we can say above here.

Aren't you totally ignoring that the primary endpoint for FAP-Dox SGC? is PFS? So the ORR is not the most relevant metric in this extremely hard to treat cancer?

I highlighted the phase 2 SGC trial of another pharma recently... what you'll see from their results is a low ORR and a low PFS... that's the sort of result that offers no route to market.

I'd think of the dispute as totally separate because it's with a company that Andrada *wants* to go into partnership with. It's (considerable) additional tin production if it goes the way of the mining firm so again very much blue sky upside if positive but a side project for now.

The Uis tin operation is in one of the best African jurisdictions you could hope for and Andrada is very much seen as an exemplary Namibian business.

Tbf Jason and his investment vehicle stepped in here and provided the loan that was initially going to come from Quinton's AUO fund.

Delays yes but without GMI the Kabwe deal would have fallen through. And no it wasn't smooth sailing but it is over the line and transformational for SKA so I imagine this downbeat feeling over the placing won't last all that long.

Jerry here's the simple investment case:

Uis is a polymetallic ore body. Plan was to produce large amounts of lithium petalite with tin & tantalum essentially byproducts. Lithium price crashed and attention turned to tin. Expansion plans have been slow but they have been the focus for a while now and are close to bearing fruit so the timing couldn't be much better. Any day the jig plant will be commissioned, that alone should see tin operation at ~1300t p/y at ~$25k (possibly a tad lower) AISC. Obviously at $50k (even $40k) tin price the cash being generated from this prospect alone is meaningful vs mcap. Considerable further scale and margins later this year too from the ore sorter project which upgrades the front end of the processing plant, with this alongside jig plant a doubling of output (2000tpa) is hoped.

There's currently a dispute on a conservation basis over the supply agreement Andrada signed last year. Permission will be decided by the courts but if that lands in our favour (and could land any time) it's utterly transformation, tin grades ~11X those of Uis and output going well beyond the 2000tpa previously mentioned.

In addition work towards integrating the lithium into Uis circuit has been ongoing waiting for lithium price to show signs of recovery. That's happened now so we should expect numerous RNS' on that front throughout the year.

And then there's the JV with SQM which is still early days but has all the hallmarks of a major development that could by itself by a company-maker.

I wasn't talking about you but I see you're sensitive enough to assume I was!

You're very obsessed with the 'lucky' element but don't all micro caps need that bit of luck to become $B companies? I believe so. I consider the timing of covid, the attention it brought to Avacta and the amount that was able to be raised off the back of the LFT as a lucky break too.

That luck or whatever you call it has paved the way for this tiny biotech to tighten its chemistry and get a second more exciting drug into humans with early data possibly with us in as few as six or so months.

The truth is that some (like yourself) are unsure if there will be a tad more pain before they get to that key inflection point later in 2026 and so are just trying to time there exit and re-entry perfectly (sensible). But like you did previously you pile on and on and on after selling and then as soon as you choose to buy back in all these perceived risks at totally vanished. It's plain as day.

Thorn you'd consider a more than doubling of progression free survival irrelevant too? How about in combination with no severe cardiac effects and far more minor side effects across the board?

If given that profile head to head no patient turning down AVA6000 vs comparator and hence it's clinically relevant if repeated (and hopefully improved on) in a larger phase 2/3 trial.

SQM partnered with Andrada at Lithium Ridge when the Li price was less than half what it is now, they are the world’s biggest producer and can turn a profit at lower prices than almost all other hard rock miners.

The improved lithium backdrop adds enormous value to that asset now.

Lovely thing to have going on in the background alongside all this tin excitement.

“ You pays your money and makes your choice”

And then you go on to remind everyone day after day of that choice?! Or perhaps this time will be different.

Quite a retrace first before deciding to sell but if you’re expecting the silence to continue for months on end then I get the rationale… Hope the decision turns out to be a shocker!

'Doesn't even get BM into production LOL'

'There is a very real and very probable outcome that Raglan will cover all of our g&a, and a little bit more' - that's because costs are looking like $2k pd with 4 ounces ($18k) give or take revenue per day. That $16k difference by say 225 days is $3.6m / £2.68m ie far more than the costs of exploration at BM, Lolworth, Baileston put together. So enough for BMN equipment too AND there's now a £1.5m safety net on top due to the £1.3m (net) raise and ~£200k already in the bank.

There's every chance that was the last ever placing at ECR.

And no-one can deny what a great job Nick is doing in keeping us all informed and up-to-date to keep the momentum going. I thought once the funding arrived we might get a few months of silence but no, another interview and full steam ahead - fab!

To me it's just a nod to record levels of tin production (even if modest) continue into the current quarter and so coupled with the high tin price means we can look forward to a much improved quarter when it is released to the market in March.

That sort of nod doesn't require an RNS but it's still reassuring.

What we want is the price to stay above the placing price, that matters far more than some perceived ‘3x placing shares’ theory… reason being that what matters is the volume above the strike price, as that is where those in the raise that aren’t long term holders will sell to take their profit and move on.

Price action very strong here. Doesn’t look like it’ll retrace to 0.26p and if it does it’ll likely be ever so short-lived as ‘commercial production’ end nears.

I suppose there’s no chance of a buyout now as there wasn’t a buyout last month.

“Why would there be a deal next month if there wasn't one last month?”

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I laughed audibly out loud at this. Is your logic that if something hasn’t already happened it can’t happen in the future?! If a deal didn’t immediately follow SGC release then there’s no chance of a deal at a later date? What an odd theory!

There is no logical reason to rush a raise through right now unless there’s zero chance of a deal landing by July. I don’t think anyone believes management believes that and hence no raise this quarter.

I think we can all agree how important the 63p raise was though, company would have been a bit cornered if they hadn’t moved when they did so we should acknowledge that timing was spot on there.

Very tempted to start adding again at this level. No guarantees but just imagine if that 350k ounce is confirmed with evidence for a future upgrade to 1m+

That would be $1.5B to $4.5B worth of gold!

The problem is GRL need cash to troubleshoot and solve these problems and it’s rather hard to command it when you’re essentially insolvent… who would lend to Goldstone today knowing AIMSL can pull the plug whenever they decide?

So it leaves an equity raise as the only option and hence holders have to be willing to (highly likely) suck up a discounted raise next. Not ideal but will give a chance of a turnaround at least.

It might look good value as a risky bet when funded.

YTD: +35.01%

I swear I was only celebrating the New Year last week!