Member Info for HarChris

ECR are on the verge of a low capex, relatively simple alluvial gold mining project at the height of the gold bull market. If you can't acknowledge that there's SO much margin for error here in what is a technically low operation with all the necessary machinery already there then that's on you.

The rest of us can see that ECR is now considerably de-risked thanks to the backdrop and the smart move by Nick to buy Raglan a few months ago.

Plenty of companies take on debt before reaching production, it's very common. I'll explain for you if you need it spelling out.

ECR looks for $200k, entity comes along and offers $200k with one year's maturity at 12% interest meaning ECR pays back $225k in the future. Said entity is confident of getting its money back because (i) that cash takes ECR through to production and (ii) ECR is valued at $11.5m mcap so if the management wanted, at a more opportune time when it's far less signposted, they could issue a tiny percentage of shares to just pay it off.

No they don't need to plug £1m this year, that was about the net yearly outflow PRIOR to Raglan, I would hope Raglan is able to generate more than that in cash flows so that all the group costs are covered and additional cash is built up to fund even more exploration. From the figures we have they should be looking at about $100k revenue per week vs $15k costs for about 200-250 days per year ie 35 weeks, that's enormous margins.

Yes I'm sure a small amount of cash (maybe $200k?) will be needed to aid the transition to production, especially as we're bang in the rainy season at Raglan, but that could come from a couple of investors via a subscription or even a small debt facility now they're so close to cash flows.

No Boldicus, the difference is that ECR is making tremendous progress and are in the best position they’ve ever been in and yet those same people who said this company would fail have absolutely nothing positive to say, they don’t have it in them to do that.

With GRL the company has debt it will never pay back with its fate totally in the hands of the creditor. If GRL suddenly turned it all around and were seeing unambiguous progress and we were both on that BB refusing to acknowledge it and instead searching for any negatives or going on about how useless the previous management was then it would be equivalent.

Posters like Coco are very useful to gauge where the company’s at, when they run out of present tense criticism and revert solely to past tense ad hominems it’s a buy signal.

We know they are generating cash now as there was virtually no cash left at last update and yet there’s been no raise, we just don’t know if it’s only a very modest amount with no room for error or a healthy chunk building up.

SQM I wouldn’t rule out some drilling results this quarter, that would be six months since the last update.

I agree with your assessment for Goantagab although that doesn’t mean no update until May, could well get an update soon to flesh out the situation and give us a fair assessment of where we stand.

Brandberg West could well end up with a similar JV as SQM, something that would be very much appreciated by the market.

Has global geopolitics ever looked more uncertain? Not for a long while. It’s hardly a surprise that gold continues to hold here and look like going even higher is it.

Annoyed?! Why do you say that?! I'm following with interest and would have looked into buying back in but we are totally kept in the dark as to how the operations are faring and so can't. That's a shame!

Happy to see there's still a publicly limited company in GRL to be able to chat about, that's a plus! Now some transparently Emma so there's no risk of being spiked and simply a time extending strategy for AIMSL to make its decision on GRLs future.

Hope you're as cheery as me Mick :)

It's been three months since the first deal was signed with Daemaneng and so you'd have thought if Ironveld were needing to raise they'd have moved far sooner than this? Also remember this from late October:

'Daemeneng will provide an initial prepayment of ZAR 1.6 million, split equally between Altona and Sable, further demonstrating commitment to near-term cash-flow support.'

Perhaps if necessary Daemeneng provide a further small prepayment until larger revenues are generated from later in Q1 onwards.

This is by far the longest Goldstone have gone without declaring any gold pours, including no pour updates on X either. Five months and counting, surely have to let the market know what’s happening soon.

Most people don't understand the power of sentiment but it's real.

Last year when SWC was £3 a share in July with BTC at $107k and SWC holding just 750 BTC buyers were still pushing up against any logic because they thought it was going higher.

Recently with SWC around 30p a share with BTC at $90k and SWC holding 2664 BTC buyers were hesitant against all logic because they thought it might still go lower.

Being able to assess when you're somewhat close to the top and somewhere close to the bottom in any cycle is how the money is made.

Here's a simple way to look at it. Right now fully diluted mNAV is 0.69, last year it went way past 20.

Whilst that sort of figure is unlikely to be seen again at a bare minimum it's likely, given a surge in BTC price and some market-noticing strategic moves from Webley, that we see an mNAV of at least 2 again, given the current mNAV that means a trebling vis a vis current multiple.

Now assume that this mNAV coincides with a doubling of BTC from this current price, so $180k BTC at some point in 2026. BTC doubling and mNAV trebling would give a 6X return from today.

The disconnect is slightly smaller than that due to 96m warrants but there’s still a big disconnect.

I’d think of it like this, when sentiment is with the treasury companies they’ll trade well above mNAV and when sentiment is low (like it is currently) it’ll trade below.

I personally believe mood will shift 180 again and in the future trade at an mNAV of 2+ again with BTC much higher, if that happens SWC will easily trade at multiples of current level.

Bookmark this link for up-to-date metrics: https://www.smarterwebcompany.co.uk/bitcoin-treasury/analytics-/

Relax Coco and enjoy the ride, it’s now 60% up since the last placing. Reasons to be cheerful?!

This was announced over a week ago Steven, this isn’t new news.

I ummed and ahhed over whether to add or not before suspension and decided to play it safe instead and just stick with what I’ve got - certainly a big few weeks coming up, if they can get a positive operational update out in Jan and then follow it up with relist I would expect a 50%+ rise from the level in which is closed Wednesday.

Fingers crossed.

To date about 90% of Nick’s remuneration has been in shares and he’s not selling any. And to think there were accusations not long ago that ECR were a lifestyle company…

Now go file that TR1 Nick!

That’s such nonsense.

GRL are utterly unique in being a gold producer that has failed to post a meaningful profit in 2025, utterly unique in that. Not only that but because of the way the debt was structured the amazing rise in gold price + the high interest has actually seen their debt rise considerably this year.

I follow a lot of gold producers and there isn’t one that comes close to being in a worse position at the end of 2025 as they were at the start.

The only thing I know for sure is if the Avacta share price appreciates gradually in the new year before a deal landing firstly Wyn’s frequency of posting will decline by a factor of 5 but he’ll also pop up saying ‘just because I didn’t tell you I bought back in at the bottom doesn’t mean I didn’t!’

The man is infallible!

It’s a real shame that they’ve given no production or operational updates for months now, if they had and there was something positive in there I’m sure I wouldn’t be the only one tempted to buy back in which would help see a sustained rise in price.

As is it we really don’t know what the state of play is and investing blind isn’t a strategy for anyone but the most risk loving.

I do hope a few of you have made your New Year's Resolution 'be kinder on the Avacta LSE bulletin board'.