Member Info for HarChris

The market cap is far too low to be worrying about retraces, THX delivers time and time again and now we have the 26th Jan to look forward to as the next big catalyst. Holds on AIM don't get easier than this.

80k mid range with a $3400/oz margin at current gold price giving $272m operating profit. I think they'll be okay.

And in the meantime even with the hedge in place and without the second jig ATM are probably seeing the cash position build around £0.5m per month.

This really does seem like a turning point, especially with lithium adding such value to any potential SQM deal and the potential to reintegrate that into the Uis operations.

It's an if at this stage but if tin price is still $45k by May at the very least the jig plant will be up and running and the hedge will be over and Andrada will be making a good $20k margin on ~325t contained tin per month ie profit of $6.5m per quarter. This is assuming the worst re the decision on the high grade feedstock from Goantagab, too.

That's the debt cleared in the blink of an eye from Uis tin alone.

We have a very recent precedent so let's look at that for answers:

375m shares issued on the 8th October. The share price consistently stayed above the 0.2p placing price (average about 10% above) and then just before christmas broke through 0.3p i.e a 50% move - it took ~1.1B shares to see that 50% move.

This time around with such a long runway and the lack of risk over the next six months or so I think once the news tap starts flowing (late Jan, perhaps early Feb) it will be well away from the 0.26p placing price.

That's true re share price mattering but it's also true that it absolutely is a good thing that a $200B pharma giant is highlighting the importance of FAP at a major conference, especially as we know for certain that that same behemoth at least had meetings with Avacta due to those slides having the Novartis header. Only an agenda would make someone totally dismiss this.

Great, that's more like it Wyn, stating on the day in which you've supposedly sold is a lot more credible.

If you share when you buy back in within a few hours that will be a lot more believable vs your usual habit of stating after a big rise that you bought in a 'few days before'. Always interested to follow to see if you're making money or not but you make it impossible to know by stating your trades well after the fact - this one is better!

I find it hard to believe that investors from the most recent placing would execute 59m warrants at a cost of £590k without being pretty damn confident of what's to come... those warrants don't expire until July 2027 but they chose to execute early to put their cash to use now when it's most needed by the company.

That to me is an auspicious sign.

''And whilst everybody’s bickering on here the sp drops by 10% (but of course nobody cares..) ''

It's not a coincidence, it's why the number of posts today is so high. Certain commentators smell blood, are skilled at sensing a downturn and become more exercised on here .

Eloro, I empathise with you but if you'd been around longer you'd be far less bothered about being spiked this time.

Just a few short months ago holders were seething as Nick suddenly placed at 0.2p to acquire Raglan. Personally I was also irritated by the lack of cash raised, only enough to ever so slightly increase runway (perhaps one month) and therefore knowing funding would be needed again in the not too distant future. And yet still in no time at all the share price rose 75% from that 0.2p level and if it wasn't for certain posters knowing about the placing (as Axis reached out to them and they got selling) i'm sure we'd have seen a 100% move to 0.4p and beyond.

This time around was no repeat of a few months ago. There must be around £200k in the bank as we began 2026 so taking net proceeds of ~£1.3m from the placing we're now looking at £1.5m in the kitty. That gives ECR a fifteen month runway going by historic cash burn & once Raglan gets going that runway extends out further and further.

This is an unprecedented position to be in, genuine blue sky upside potential without the risk of a placing until at least late Q2 2027 with the possibility of being fully funded indefinitely.

It won't happen overnight but i'm pretty sure whatever price you bought in at pre-placing will see you in profit in the not too distant future... even more so if you take advantage of the temporary retrace.

Some indications yes, modest to begin with just at Raglan of ~ 4 ounces a day although that’s $18k revenue at current prices. Nick has stated $2k daily costs all in so if that target is achieved it’s $16k margin a day on perhaps 250 days so $4m profit.

Personally think that’s rather unlikely with just Raglan in 2026 but even if a third of that were achieved it would be a great stepping stone/proof of concept for Blue Mountain.

I know some want hard numbers but investors were buying ECR at 0.3p last year with production years off (this was pre Raglan acquisition) and gold price far, far lower.

What we can say is that there’s a high chance that profits this year and especially next year will be at a very low multiplier to the measly market cap of today.

Whilst ATM has only seen a £2m rise in market cap over the past month SQM has seen a $2.5B boost!

The retrace is understandable but excessive IMO, still perfectly placed to take off on the news we're all hoping for.

So much for the positive EBITDA for cashews, pushed that line all through 2025 and then failed to mention it for the full year.

DKL continues to show modest operational improvement but nowhere near enough to turnaround the debt situation.

Value by the end of 2026 will be based on the price in which WeCap is able to sell their shares at (or at least a decent portion of them) - there's 442m shares and the DCB is £8m (assuming some interest tacked on when extended).

Current mcap is about £8m so it's easy to compare future value with today's price. For today's SP to be 'fair value' ie its NAV = to market cap, sellable WSHP shares gives ~$17, so call it $20 as there will still likely be a small disconnect. In other words $20 WSHP should be break even (as enough to pay off bond + cover £8m mcap in remaining WSHP shares + room for small disconnect) and then anything above that is all upside, about 1.8p for every addition $10 in WSHP share price.

So I think of it as:

$10 = can only just pay off bond with no value left

$20 = 1.8p i.e today's price

$30 = 3.6p,

$40 = 5.4p

$100 = 16.4p

$110 = 18.2p ie 10 bagger.

Personally the suspension doesn't concern me, whether we come back in Jan or Feb is not as important as seeing operational progress.

We need to see evidence that momentum is continuing with offtake agreements and contracts signed for both DMS and ROM material. The sooner we see revenue hitting the accounts the less chance there will be a raise and the sooner the market will be able to value Ironveld appropriately.

That Newmont ramp is laughable, make it credible next time.

Personally wouldn't expect a takeover offer at this stage but it's not beyond the realms of possibility what with being debt free, Australia + the large tax losses must make ECR look attractive at not even £10m mcap (+£1.5m in cash).

Tbf the brokers have set targets that correspond to around $1B market cap in the past. Have those targets ever come close to being met? No. Is it likely in the future? I wouldn’t go as far as that but it’s far from impossible given the assets Andrada possess.

The set up is there to grow many multiples from here, there is a clear path with tin, lithium to scale + copper , tungsten to become a mining giant but the jury is still out (for me) whether or not the current management are capable of such a feat.

Andrada have a JV at Lithium Ridge with SQM, a $20 billion lithium producer so the Li price rise is very relevant even without Andrada currently being a producer itself - let’s face it, if SQM like what they find then the value of the asset will multiply at current Li price vs that seen earlier in 2025.

The RTO in and of itself is irrelevant, what we need proof of is Marula’s ability to turn an acquisition rapidly into a cash-generating asset. That’s the investment case we all bought in on.

If that happens the RTO with its JSE and AIM index listing may be a boost but the RTO itself doesn’t add value.