Member Info for HarChris

If approval is given for Goantagab then this rerates overnight. Andrada has the right to go beyond the profit sharing agreement and acquire it all for $15m, an operation that would now bring it multiples of that in profit per year with this tin price.

'Grade 3 or higher treatment-emergent adverse effects occurred in 69.6% of patients receiving the combination'

That's magnitudes worse than Avacta's safety profile and yet it was recently approved.

I saw the identical names bar the prefixes but wasn't aware they were essentially the same, interesting.

Look at the comparator ie epirubicin as a monotherapy - a PFS of just 3 months, a disease control rate of 54.7% and an ORR of 2.9% !!!

https://trial.medpath.com/news/f8afb7cc2accb0ec/anlotinib-plus-epirubicin-receives-world-s-first-approval-in-china-for-advanced-soft-tissue-sarcoma

The study that Christina cited with increased PFS for STS was that of anlotinib and toripalimab but I thought it interesting that Anlotinib has fairly recently (August) been approved in China for advanced STS as a monotherapy in combo with a chemotherapy drug called epirubicin. A phase 3 double blinded trial approved this combo with just a 17.8% ORR, with 1 complete response plus 35 partial responses out of 307 trialled. PFS was the standout result which drove approval at 8.5 months and the disease control rate 79.3%. As for the safety profile... 'any-grade treatment emergent adverse events occured in 97% patients, 71.1% neutropenia, 70.7^ leukopenia and a relatively high percentage of grade 3/4 events too compared with what AVA6000 is seeing.

I know it's China and they have different bodies and different standards but another reminder of how low the bar is.

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I very much expect AVA6000 could far surpass this there just isn't the resources to attempt to commit fully to three indications and management made their choice early to focus on SGC with TNBC secondary.

Please share the trials and data that prove that 'Dox delivered by Pre|Cision isn't as effective at killing Dox sensitive cancers as Standard Dox is'? I'd love to see it. I know that the CAP regimen (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and cisplati) for SGC has shown slightly higher response rates in small studies but that isn't comparing Pre|CISION with straight Dox.

Momentum was lost with the share conversions at 3.85p earlier this week - give it a few more trading days at this new ATH tin price and i'm sure it'll be back pushing 5p and beyond again.

No, I wasn’t referring to you in that comment before.

Putting aside the possible partnerships and deals that could land anytime what you’re saying is Avacta needs funding to first 6103 data which you say is a minimum six months away ie July. Avacta are funded til July, so again if no deals or partnerships land Avacta are a £10m subscription away (from taking them easily through Q4 and to what you also agree is hopefully the transformational catalyst.

They could announce such a small subscription tomorrow without the share price blinking, it’s a few percent dilution.

Again, there’s little downside from this price near term.

But also they’ve found buyers of the stock. Would they have found buyers this quickly?

To me it reads like the notice was a while ago and it’s only just released to the market now alongside an update on revised potential cash flows and NPV etc

Well I think it's reassuring for long term holders that the most negative poster on here isn't ridiculing the idea of a 5000% share price rise from here.

What about this bit ‘ on the day a conversion notice is submitted by the CLN investor,’

Is it possible that they filed that conversion notice at the end of December when the share price suddenly pumped, knowing they could convert at the 5d vwap which was much lower than the share price had just risen to?

I’m fully aware of all this and hence my comments about déjà vu… it still doesn’t change the fact that AIMSL considers this placing at 1p the best path forward and is clearly convinced enough that Emma and management can steer the ship back in the right direction with this gold backdrop.

I’m wary enough to remain uninvested but if it a was totally hopeless situation AIMSL would have pulled the plug instead.

'28p clearly more likely than £28 in the next 3-6 months.'

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Definitely. Think £2.80 more likely than that 28p in the next 3-6 months though.

It's not a mistake. 26.981m shares at 1.483p = £400k ie the $536k in rns.

The dip in tin price and lithium being so short-lived and straight back to highs is telling, there prices are here to stay.

Uranium very much at an 18 month high now too. It’s a great combo.

Sorry for the slow reply Boldicus.

I think there’s a real chance of a turnaround now but I haven’t bought back in, I can’t square the fact that the recent interview sounds almost identical to the year before. In parts almost word for word. And not enough explanation has been given as to why production slowed to a crawl in H2, swept under the carpet and so can’t be sure they’ll even hit the ground running with these near $5k gold price.

If I end up closing out other positions and this retraces a bit more I’ll maybe take a punt but for now remains on the watchlist - would I be shocked if this eventually ends up at 5p+ ? No, it’s more than possible now so GL to holders :)

You may be right, they may never end up reaching production but (i) the share price is going far higher in the meantime and (ii) whether they ever reach production has v little to do with Jason (as that’s your beef) an everything to do with the ever strengthening team and Sibanye support.

Broker target is 13p

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And I think that's pre the recent gold rise - in the company slides they have target range of 12p-23p.

Never possible to be certain until after the fact, the skill is in discernment and recognising what companies are well supported and what companies can be wiped out by a need for funding.

The worst case scenario over the coming three or four months isn’t all that bad, the best case is excellent.