Member Info for HarChris

If the tin price stays here through 2026 and into 2027, first with the jig plant and then the ore sorter implementation Andrada's group debt will quickly shrink to nothing - from there it won't be a challenge to take on long term debt to fund further tin expansion and integrate the lithium processing circuit into Uis.

First step is derisking by building the cash pile this year and then funding optionality opens right up.

Yeah bohercom that's it, I was including the final debt payment too.

I think much of the ore sorter costs are already sunk and as AV highlighted on numerous occasions in this interview the beauty is that ongoing scale and margin increases will boost cash generation further and provide for self-funded growth.

Sure integrating the lithium circuit will be a bigger one-off capex cost but that's much further down the line and there's plenty that can transform Andrada's fortunes between now and then.

There are two CLNs in play, one maturing late July for I think £8.5m and that's the only maturity in 2026. Orion's is a year later like you said.

Three months ago it was looking like a placing was going to be needed just for everyday working capital and yet now not only is that not needed there's a chance that they can cover the full maturity of that CLN through cash generation between now and then.

More likely it will be paid off in other ways, after all it's not a big figure and it won't be difficult to command financing if they are as profitable as they are likely to be through this year with new jig plant and this sky high tin price.

Indigo aren’t selling, or at least that isn’t the plan - the vast majority are being sold/transferred to other entities and institutions according to the previous RNS.

Two separate things longfell. The jig plant is an operational (teething) issue, the access to high grade feedstock is a more complicated one as it potentially disturbs the black rhino population that reside near to the mine. Seeing as Goantagab is relatively close to both Brandberg West and Uis and these mines operate without any public consternation from the conservancies and safari industry i'd be surprised if there weren't ways to minimise the disturbance though.

Approval to blast and truck ore from Goantagab to Uis will be a major catalyst in the coming months if it goes Andrada's way.

There are a few reasons why Hawk might benefit from an early extension - one being that it would boost WeCap's valuation and thus giving them optionality as to how to repay the DCB (place some shares to boost cash position). In the end of the day a creditor like Hawk wants confidence that they are to be repaid and that isn't certain all the while WCAP has a mcap below the bond value.

Extension well before May I think.

Hmmm is this the nail in the coffin? This sort of incompetence is the last thing they need at this stage.

When it comes to the decision of the Namibian government between conservation/tourism vs a mining licence at Goantagab (with some compromises around containing of blasting etc) one has to think that money ends up taking - take a look at the potential value of this mine, over 2m tons of tin at a grade close to 1%, that's a deposit that could generate $1B+ in revenue over 8 or so years and with it an enormous boost to the Namibian economy.

Hawk will also want to act in the best interest of its WeShop holding which is currently worth many times the £6.95m that is owed to them by WeCap. Any situation that flags WeCap as a distressed seller in November (As soon as the shares become tradeable) will be of no benefit to Hawk either so not only do I see an extension of the DCB but I also suspect it will be extended by 12 months, not 6, and will enable a drip feeding of WCAPs WeShop offloading to pay off the bond through late 2026 and 2027.

Well it's stated in the last operational update... initial assay results are targeted for the first half of the 2026 calendar year ie between Jan and June.

Probably means it won't be as soon as next month but certainly not that far away.

Absolutely, it’s the most likely outcome.

It's a good question and as far as i'm aware it's not secured against WeCap's assets ie its WSHP shares.

I don't see administration as a realistic worst case scenario... could renegotiation involve transferring some it the WSHP holding to Hawk at a fixed price? Something like that is possible I'd have thought but still think most likely outcome is a straight extension of the DCB with another 10% or so tacked on.

Big farmer will have been sowing the seeds of their interest through the winter, June will be harvest time with fruit ready for picking.

As long as the assay results are positive Lithium Ridge and a potential buyout will start to be priced in here, possibly as soon as this quarter .

So much interest now on so many fronts is why I think interest is only going to build from here.

What we know is that a $24B company doesn't bother with small uninspiring mines, they don't go signing joint venture partnerships to find some tiddly deposit to snap up for a few bob, they are after major tier 1 projects that add meaningful scale to their operations.

It's still early but all is looking exceptionally good right now with a lithium price that's recovered at an opportune time for us... as others have said 2026 is really shaping up to be the year where this investment finally comes good.

If this recent share issuance to Richard is his entire salary then he has bought shares, it's the equivalent.

Be nice to see him buy even more on the open market to show confidence but it's a start.

Avacta certainly isn't worth $30B at this stage, quite obviously!

It's a helpful comparator to use though and shows such enormous valuations can be derived before a biotech reaches revenue generation. What about $3B ie 10 times current valuation? There's a case for it looking at AVA6103 stunning preclinical data and the way 6000 translated from preclinical to human.

Where are those regular posters that were all doom and gloom until very recently? It's almost as if they are in hiding?

Needs a good few reads but looks solid to me. The total capex will be quite high over the project but that's all factored into the NPV and it's all being funded through debt finance + internal generated cash. Arguably Douta is worth around 70p a share all by itself... makes 90p for the entire company therefore look very cheap.

Maybe but you've plucked that May date out of thin air.

There's been nothing since the Namibian High Court halted all major mining activities on the Goan claims in early October, pending a final court decision. March was mentioned I think in one article but that's it, there's no way of knowing if that decision comes later this month or many months down the line but there's no reason for it to go on indefinitely.

Personally I feel pretty good holding knowing a transformative RNS could come anytime from one of two angles - Lithium Ridge exploration assays or Goantagab mining approval - and in the meantime Andrada rakes in significant profits from the sky high tin price with additional profit to be seen once the second jig is successfully commissioned, later this quarter.