Member Info for HarChris

Yeah although your logic doesn't hold as there can be just as many 4p buy limits...

We'll see anyway as it has dropped into the 3s!

A part of me wants to see this fall to 3.99p just so I can picture poor Marc's face staring dumbly at the computer screen wondering why the hell the share price isn't cascading down to 3.5p or whatever his experience has told him stop losses will have been set at!

(sorry for the mean comment but you have banged on about it an awful lot over the past week)

We've been over this numerous times Daisy but in case you missed it...

BMN have managed to release the last 7 quarterlies within the month, stretching all the way back to early 2021. That suggests the odds of it being this week are extremely high.

After such a strong Q1 (to be confirmed this week) US prices remain firmly above $40/kgV and European FeV is also showing strength, which combined equates to ~70% of sales. Add in the continued weakness in the Rand (total group costs for the year dropping from ~$155m to $140m) and we get an outlook starkly different to what we've seen for the past few years.

We've talked of 2023 being a turning point for BMN and it still looks to be the case, even if the share price hasn't followed yet.

One further comparison with Australian Vanadium.

The feasibility study showed that AVL would, at a v205 price of $10.50/lb breakeven after 7.5 years and be a 6200mtV producer. If we were to see those prices for 8 years BMN in the meantime would have made ~$55m in the first three years, used it (+ some further raises) to expand to 8000mtV and then made ~$100m+ for the final few years (leveraging the new scale).

So in 8 years time you'd find AVL would have broken even and be ready to start generating profits for the first time whereas BMN would be an 8000mtV producer, an 800MWh electrolyte producer and with ~$300m+ cash in the bank... not to mention all the risks that go along with developing a greenfield site from scratch to 6250mtV and the reliance on such high V price throughout the period.

I know which I see as the better bet yet AVL is valued higher as of today.

No CC but what you've jut said explains why the share price is where it is, the perception that BMN are debt-laden and cash burning. They aren't, Q1 by my estimations will have been the fourth most profitable quarter in Bushveld's history.

Th energy crisis coupled with the waiving of Schedule 2 of the Electricity Act has opened the floodgates to private electricity generation in South Africa. In just the first three months of the year over 2.4GW of projects have been registered by private firms looking to generate their own power - that's almost 5% of the total electricity produced in South Africa! As these projects go live there will be less pressure on the grid and load shedding will reduce and eventually end.

The last thing South Africa should be doing now is stifling entrepreneurship so no, today's electricity crisis isn't a reason not to extend the licence at Mokopane imo.

Biosynex's mcap has fallen from €150m at the start of the year to just €80m now... perhaps if we get it another few months novacyt can buy them out with cash?! :)

A few further facts on Australian Vanadium.

The most recent development is that they've chosen a site for their electrolyte plant, a plant that will eventually produce 33MWh of electroyte but hasn't even started the build yet, that's right one sixth of Bushveld's and one twenty fourth if you account for the 800MWh Belco can be expanded to. As for production they are yet to produce a single tonne.

Currently valued higher than Bushveld.

I can assure you 'big players' would take 200 million shares tomorrow if they were given them off book or in a placing, I think they'd take them all the way up to about 7p.

The problem is they can't buy more than a handful at 4p without spiking the share price and they aren't bothered about making £1000 from a few thousand shares.... So you could argue that 'big players' aren't desperate to buy right now at 8p+ but not that they don't see value down here.

Sadly this will only move when traders jump on and they just cycle through companies based on near term catalysts and sentiment.

Take a comparator like Australian Vanadium - their feasibility study last year concluded that they can reach 6250mtV (11200 V205) for a cost of $405m with a potential breakeven after 7.5 years with a V205 price of $10.50. Anything less than that and they are struggling to get funded.

Bushveld will be at 5100mtV next year and need just $150m of funding to reach 8000mtV.

Bushveld are undervalued.

Seeing as BMN have reached the stage in which they can generate profit yes I think it tells a story, one of being very undervalued.

By the end of the year we will be looking at something like $25m cash and $60m debt, ie net debt having fallen by 50%. That tells me that they have matured as a business. I suspect in 2024 with sentiment having turned there will be an equity raise and further cash generation and we'll be in net cash territory. Those looking back will realise that they missed an op.

Short term debt is $40m, long term debt is $40m giving $80m.

Cash at turn of the year will have been ~$10m with ~900mtV costed inventory which sells for $36m. Significant cash generation has been seen since so that cash figure will be higher than $10m and substantially higher if the inventory has started to be sold off.

The other point to be aware of is a tick up in V back towards $45/kgV will see BMN making $50m+ a year. That's fairly likely given the vanadium market outlook which makes the $60m mcap look ridiculous.

Aha I only just spotted that. Yeah, 2000GWh would require an extra 11 million tonnes of V!

They dropped below the 3% threshold in early January so they are no longer a major shareholder.

Whether they are down to zero shares nobody knows.

That's bollo***, if BMN were burning through cash that would be true but they've returned to profitability, V prices are well above Bushveld's breakeven so they are now generating substantial cash. Fortune has already spoken about this, they are in talks with Orion to renegotiate the debt and also with 'specialist funders'. No placing is necessary, they survived hairier times (H2 2022) and now the cash pile will be rising substantially. Also, cash pile increases $4m for every 100mtV of inventory they sell this year (~900mtV total)

There are no plans to start the next stage of expansion until 5000-5400mtV steady state production is achieved so it's a case of generating as much cash as possible through 2023, renegotiating the debt, continuing generating cash in 2024 and then with the share price back at a much healthier level and with the vanadium market hotting up (as supply tightens) Fortune will have both levers (debt and equity) in which to execute the expansion plan.

By this time BELCO will be in full swing too and money will have been raised from spinning off BE.

We'll see who's right about this in time but I'm strongly of the opinion that his career has peaked with novacyt and he'll never hold a ceo position again, at least not for a company the size of ncyt.

A board position for a foundation is hardly a sign that his career is flourishing.

I can see a joint venture with a major miner like Glencore to develop Mokopane. Wouldn't be surprised if something is being worked in the background (early discussions) now that adoption and future demand is undeniable.

If the data shared by Alberto Arias of Largo last week is accurate then we really are about to experience a vanadium price shock in the short-medium term.

VRFB deployments:
1980 to 2021 - 400MWh
2022 - 400MWh
2023 - 2000GWh (estimate)

If that 2023 growth is realised and continues in 2024 there is simply no way that the vanadium market can absorb 10s of thousands of extra tonnes of consumption over the next 12-18 months.

Fortune's ambition and approach have always been clear. Vanadium redox flow batteries have a key role in the energy transition, support and champion vrfbs to promote their adoption, expand the mining operations in a conservative fashion that minimises dilution, position the company so as to be able to benefit right across the vanadium supply chain, forget typical snake oil promotion - focus on the fundamentals and let the share price take care of itself once profits show through.

Obviously there's been hiccups along the way, not everything has gone to plan but anyone looking forward honestly will see that the vision is coming together now and all that's remaining is for the share price to follow.