Member Info for HarChris

I'll give you a really, really big one tekanalyst... environmental.

Let's compare a 1GWh lithium ion system for a 1GWh vanadium redox flow battery. The former requires thousands of tonnes of lithium (and other metals), the latter requires 5500 tonnes of vanadium. The lithium ion begins degrading as soon as the first few cycles and then after around 10 years (maybe 15 max) will need to be replaced where (at least for now) it will most likely end up in landfill. To replace the batteries miners get back to work and thousands more tonnes of lithium (and other metals) are mined and processed and the whole cycle continues every 10 to 15 years.

The vanadium redox flow battery on the other hand last at least 25 years and at the end of its use the vanadium can be removed and then reused in the new replacement battery.

As lithium and other metals are themselves non renewable and with the most accessible stores already being mined the long term environmental sustainability angle is massive.

This tweet shows the amount of electrolyte production capacity and gives us a big clue as to where the VRFB demand is heading: https://twitter.com/Setcentric3/status/1633098387334520835

Since this tweet more projects/builds have been announced so we're now looking at ~ 45000mtV of vanadium needed a year if this amount of electrolyte is produced... Woodmac estimates a mere 4000mtV increase in demand will tip the vanadium market into deficit.

(Thanks to SetCentric for the research)

You seem to have got lost again, here you go https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFE/community/

‘Pdub, re the SP, have you never heard the saying facts speak louder than words.’
_______________

I certainly haven’t… probably because there’s no such saying.

‘ Then we won't hear diddly squat for another 3 months.’

Fortunately whatever happens we get some sort of update more regularly after this one. The full year results will be within 8 weeks (with post period highlights commentary and an analyst call) which at least breaks up the long time between quarterly updates.

As we’re so close to the update I’m not going to make any predictions, we’ll find out soon enough.

Agreed but it seems a strange time to be critical just a few days before having some of that progress communicated to us,

For me it doesn't matter that revenues are back to the pre-covid era temporarily, having £87m net cash vs £7m net debt (with debt 4 times greater than cash) is so starkly different, one extreme to the other, that the difference in share price should be off the scale, not a simple 4X increase.

My reasoning is fairly simple, for me a company with £87m cash and £0m debt is worth *at least* £87m if they aren't burning through that cash and considerably more if they are capable of, in time, using that money to grow the company. In a high interest rate recessionary environment I see the potential M&A as significant with the chance to pick up companies in the year's ahead with cumulative value in excess of £200m today (as otherwise decent companies struggle) likely.

Would I be buying more today with all the uncertainty and lack of growth if the market cap was £100m+? No, the BOD has to do a lot more to attract investors at that price but it's not that valuation, it's £37m. I believe they are also likely to come out of the dispute at least neutrally so I am comfortable with the risk on that front and factor in a fairly decent chance of even greater cash upside.

That's not my problem, I haven't been banging the drum here since then. I have held shares since the low teens but have only become quite this vocal about the opportunity here since the high 4ps, maybe 5s I would say, so I can hardly be accused of sucking anyone in and causing anyone significant paper losses!

When I first bought in at 14p I didn't think it was the opportunity of a lifetime but today, at 4p, with all the progress made and the rapid speed in which the VRFB sector is growing and the lack of supply that is ready to come online until at least mid-late 2024 I do.

Already had this information from Andrea... Certainly factored in a fair drop in European FeV in my modelling, V205 holding up better though thankfully. US FeV prices also slightly down from March high of ~$43.5/kgV although holding firm above $40/kgV.

I've sold significant amounts on two occasions (both of which I shared on here) and have reduced slightly at times I considered highest risk so it's very hard for me to say accurately. All I know for sure is that after making a small fortune in 2020 I have certainly given it all back and some but it probably wouldn't take all that much to get back to profit overall since first buying in early 2020.

Is that honest enough for you? :)

Well I decided to pick up some more today - don't expect this update to be a catalyst but I also see little downside risk at £37m mcap so may as well buy on the off chance there's something positive that kick starts a bit of momentum and if not I sit and wait for the DHSC dispute to be resolved - that's only a little more than one year away now, max... and I still expect an out-of court- settlement.

G_G_G I would be lying if I said that load shedding was having no material impact on BMN, current guidance however has factored this in and still BMN are generating significant cash - if load shedding improves this year then profits are only going to improve further.

Current guidance is between 4200mtV and 4500mtV, without load shedding I would imagine this year we'd be looking at more like 4800mtV to 5100mtV. BMN have now got an agreement in place to mitigate against schedule load shedding so it remains to be seen if current guidance is in fact conservative, clues will be in the Q1 update this week.

I take comfort in the knowledge that BMN have reached such scale that they are now profitable despite the energy crisis... with private generation gathering pace I suspect there will be less strain on the grid as those projects come online and the impact on BMN will diminish further. There's also a chance that other countries come to South Africa's rescue and help them control the situation as this very recent article highlights:
https://www.iol.co.za/news/politics/brics-bank-could-come-to-rescue-of-eskom-to-end-load-shedding-4d01cab6-940f-48d1-927c-3544bd20408d

'It's too expensive for me up here, I like to learn from mistakes.'

I believe missing an opportunity is as big a mistake as buying at the top but good luck to you.

Without refinancing*

We can infer an awful lot from the fact that BMN only had $7m cash at the end of June and yet made it through to the end of the year with refinancing, with V having sunk to $31/kgV in Europe and averaging ~$34/kgV across BMN's markets, whilst refurbishing Kiln 3 at Vanchem as well as producing more than they sold.

What I infer from that is that if they more or less broke even given the above they are generating significant cash now there's no capex beyond sustaining costs, the rand is weaker, V is 20% higher and logistics/supply chain issues have dampened.

'What is the old adage “Turnover is vanity, profit is opinion, cash is king”. If and when BMN produce a financial update look at cash reporting.'

One thing we can be almost guaranteed of is that BMN is generating cash right now.

Cash costs $24/kgV at current exchange rate, group breakeven $34/kgV, V through Q1 was ~41.6/kgV.
They also have ~850mtV f(~$35m) fully costed inventory which is immediate cash in the bank so the sales figure will be one of the most important metrics come Q1 this week.

'VRFB deployments:
1980 to 2021 - 400MWh
2022 - 400MWh
2023 - 2000GWh (estimate)'

https://twitter.com/VSUNEnergy/status/1650302684224970752

100MW/600MWh vanadium redox flow battery energy storage power station recently announced. That's ~3% of global supply for this one project alone.

I’d pay far more attention to CC’s thoughts if he shared them occasionally but it’s hard to believe he really would wait all the way to 1.5p to buy back in when he’s as animated as he is today from a 0.1p fall to 3.95p.

Well if nothing else it’s put the stupid stop loss theory to bed. There evidently weren’t a ton of stop losses below 4p, the buy price went below for about 10 mins before popping back above 4p