Member Info for HarChris

It’s worth remembering that the guidance, all the figures we are using to project 2023 financials, are ones where disruption from load shedding is already baked in. Guidance was given on 31st Jan following the worst month of load shedding in South Africa’s history and with an expectation that things weren’t going to improve for a good while.

After the rally in V through Q1 and with US prices stable above 40/kgV and Europe still around $37.7/kgV and possibly higher as we hear of a two tier market developing (FeV that can’t be traced back to Russia selling at a premium to headline prices) alongside the continued weakness in Rand 2023 is shaping up to be a very positive year.

Yes, rising 400%+ because of a distressed sale at a knock down price is nonsensical.

I could (almost) understand it if they had managed to sell it for double what they did, or if they were able to leverage Helios in order to refinance and restructure but a forced sale like that is very often the death knell.

I don't have a particular sound answer for you Quickdip but bear in mind when looking at Assets vs debt / liabilities how much of the assets are intangible - for IAG for example intangibles make up less than 10% of their asset figure whereas for NEX it's about 40%.

This has all been skewed by the nonsensical rise from 4p to 19p on the news that Argo was selling its flagship asset, the one asset that gave Argo long term potential, its USP, for a fraction of what they bought it. That news was the sign that besides some real stroke of luck Argo was in serious trouble, the rise was just a temporary 'not going out of business just yet' pump.

Whilst more info is needed to get an accurate picture, from everything we know there is no argument by any conventional measure that Argo is undervalued at 12p.

Obviously going to see a bit of selling from them over the next quarter but only a maximum of 3.5 million shares, they won't receive the rest until December.

Personally I'd expect any positioning before Q1 results to happen later this week/early next week. Still, hopefully that's the bottom in now.

Nout to do with leaks, far more of a sell during the news blackout pushing the share price as low as possible before buying back and repositioning just before the update is to be released.

Still think we’ll be a good 20% or so higher before news lands.

I don't believe it's the case that others are blind to it, they would simply prefer to see a turnaround first and jump in on the way up. Many probably believe that other shares they have their eye on have more immediate turnaround potential and so plan to invest elsewhere first and come back to BMN at a later date.

I tend to see stocks that have had the stuffing beaten out of them yet still fundamentally sound are the best recovery plays. I may be wrong in this instance but I pay my money and take my chances... that can't be said for you and many others on here.

And whilst nothing is certain BMN are in a very envious position right now as a producer. If the vanadium price goes any lower from here pre producers will find it extremely hard to finance their way to production with the ever worsening macro backdrop and tightening credit market. Then as the battery market continues to develop (400MWh installed in 2022 equal to the total amount ever installed previously, 2000MWh expected this year) demand will start outpacing supply and BMN will instantly start seeing supernormal profit like back in 2018/19 but with far bigger scale than back 5 years ago.

Things may have got a bit ugly if this year, following all the expansion, Bushveld were still struggling to stand on their own two feet, if they were still burning through cash but they're not, they're generating huge amounts of cash now, they are comfortably profitable at current V price with the Rand above 18.

There are a hell of a lot of small caps that are going to run into serious issues in the coming months and years - the ones making a profit are not the ones to be worried about.

You wait, it wont be long till three post SuffolkandWatt starts talking about the early days at BMN and how they've been invested 10 years yet only just decided to sign up on LSE in the past few weeks...

Tbf Ted we all needed him this morning to explain to us that today's RNS isn't going to lead to a significant share price reaction. It was also important to emphasise just how utterly awful the results are going to be, you know, just in case the message hadn't got through over the past few months.

Agree with B2, I certainly won't be replying to directly anymore as he has shown just how immature and childish he is on far too many occasions now.

What are you talking about? There’s an operational update coming within 11 days now, nothing is going to be said before then. The worst is being priced in now, the worst in terms of operations, of dealing with the CLN etc etc

Anything but a poor update and we’ll see a decent share price response.

Sounds like a Right Said Fred tribute band.

Amazingly BMN doesn’t even need a 2018/19 V spike to see profits exceed current map, V at $50/kgV would more or less achieve that.

Who knows? But go back exactly 365 days... 14.65Zar to the dollar... what a difference a year makes.

She's the Investor Relations Manager, I honestly couldn't care if she held a million shares or zero.

The success or not of novacyt rests on the outcome of the DHSC dispute (if there's a significant 'win/loss' in either direction) and the competency of the Board of Directors going forward, especially when it comes to M&A. It's as unknown for Mandy as it is for all of us.

The other points I meant to add were that (i) the halving makes less and less difference each time (can't expect a doubling in price because the number of coins added per month drops from 27000 to 13500) and (ii) this time around you have the likes of MSTR that cannot afford another bull run to come and go without taking full advantage of it - last bull market they bought around 125000 bitcoin, the next one there's going to be enormous pressure on them to start acting in the interest of their shareholders by selling some of their 140000 holding.

I think it's going to be hard to see the sort of moves we've historically seen with BTC. Up until about 2020 bitcoin was still relatively underground, a byword for nerd, or computing geek. It had had its moments like in 2017 when it spiked to $19k and from there the HODL mentality hardened, made up of hundreds of thousands of broadly ordinary folk who believed they were in on something so early that they could beat the system and become rich. The spike in 2017 for example, from ~$2500 to almost $19K only required the market cap to increase $250B and with such a hardened HODL mentality formed it took very modest buying as long term holders held on tight.

Today a $250B jump in market cap takes BTC from $30K to ~$42K, a 40% rise vs almost 700% back in 2017. A 700% rise requires an mcap of ~ $2.5T! Not only that but many of those HODLers of old are now seasoned traders that are more likely to sell at resistance than they are to hold through the ups and downs.

Not to say it can't happen but hard to imagine a single 'spark' leading to a repeat of late 2020/early 2021 again. I'm also not convinced 'hype sectors', which bitcoin mining certainly was back then, ever have more than one cycle. Those companies are going to have to earn their returns this time around.

I think you'll find it's really closer to 18!

Nothing worse than talking like you’ve been here for years with an account that isn’t even two weeks old.