Member Info for HarChris

I read it again and came to the same conclusion, you were implying that they don’t give a damn about the share price but will suddenly a bit nearer to the vesting date of December 2024 and I’m saying that’s nonsense - it is far too many multiples above to just show a bit of interest in nearer the time and be rewarded for that, if they are self-interested like you are implying they will either focus hard on protecting and growing the share price now or not bother at all, at any time.

Very few vote this chap up actually, his long posts are tedious and so very painfully self-involved and are making this bb totally unreadable.

I'm unconvinced they are going to find willing funders for an equity raise unless they offer up a substantial chunk of the business at a few pence a share... at current market cap if they dilute shareholders 20% they'll raise £10m, how far is that really going to go and what are they going to do with it? Who's going to cough up and risk £10m knowing that any further misstep and all Argo's assets will be in the hands of Galaxy?

We know Peter attempted a fundraise at the back end of 2022 but the strategic investor pulled out... I suspect he tried even at a discount but none were forthcoming, hence the distressed sale of Helios. 4 months have passed and there's every chance there are no funding options left available.

Come on CS that's a lame theory. The baseline price is £3.54 and they need 10% increase pa to receive any reward from the LTIP, so that's £4.71 by the end of December 2024, for the full reward they need £7.77.

You reckon they're thinking they'll just pull their fingers out a bit nearer the time and see a quick 7X to 15X return and say wham, bam thank you ma'am?

Something I was ruminating on earlier…

Having got the challenging Kiln 3 expansion out of the way BMN are so very well placed to benefit at both ends of the vanadium price curve now… at the bottom end ($35/kgV - $40/kgV) they are still able to profit and self fund operations, even if it’s more modest, whilst hopeful producers find it extremely hard to pull off the necessary funding to develop their own projects. The lack of new supply coming online alongside a rapidly increasing demand from the battery sector then slowly (or in one big shock) moves the price back up the curve and BMN instantly become a $50m+ profit-making business.

That’s the secret of success for a commodity miner as commodity prices always fluctuate wildly over time - if you can comfortably survive the leaner times then you’ll be perfectly placed to prosper when the commodity prices swing the other way.

There's a whole laundry list of wannabe miners that have been trying to reach production for some time now (Jangada is a good example) and yet the number of companies globally that actually produce vanadium at any meaningful level (ex China) can be counted on one hand - goes to show just how far ahead Bushveld is in what is a difficult sector to break into.

Excellent to get confirmation that unlike Bab**** and their type 31s, the revenue from the FSS contract is inflation protected.

All very positive with amazing potential but that comment about the Astra facility (and funding from commercial banks) , is that the signing off being moved from early q2 to late q2?

I guess more than anything it’s to do with not needing the cash immediately.

I think that's about right. There's nothing to defend, the share price can be explained by generally very, very poor operational performance and therefore f*** all interest in the company. Equally they have just about as healthy a balance sheet as it's possible to have so they probably feel that they may as well just take their time now putting in the work behind the scenes, take their time and be selective with m&a opportunities and also wait for the DHSC dispute to fully play out (especially if there are talks on going with the possibility of a settlement in the coming months).

If that's the case then there's the potential to generate significant interest in a very short space of time. There's nothing investors like more than a turnaround story, a clear turning point, a clear unleashing of strategy. If this period is very much getting their ducks in a row then there's the potential for an explosive move if they execute it properly.

The truth is whether that happens next week, in three months or 2 years in the long run the outcome will be the same.

(NB I know I said all this last year when it turned out that DA was just totally out of his depth but at least this time around the share price is at 20% of what it was when DA joined, with the same balance sheet, so zero expectation is priced in)

The majority of trolls on here are infants that don't know the first thing about the company and have never partaken in any discussion of actual company activity - all they do is check the share price and come on here if it's down to gleefully point it out.

So no you're not going to have any of them pull you up on a small specific detail.

TBF we have seen a new 52w low now.

In a sense it is actually of little relevance as long as BMN don't need an equity raise (and for the individual if they don't need to sell for some other reason), if BMN can restructure the Orion CLN and self fund long enough for the share price to turn around / for tightness in the vanadium market to show through in V prices then whether the share price is 4p or 8p or 12p today was (for the majority and the company) irrelevant if it's 20p at the end of the year, besides being a bit stressful.

So you expect Argo share price to rise today and when I ask why you say because ''bit coin will rise as the end of the month is close (sic)''

I don't get that logic personally, would expect bitcoin to choose a direction first before Argo share price gains strength.

Why? Bitcoin's looking bearish and there's a lot of nervousness going into the full year results.

I guess the difference this time is the scale of the potential increase - if forecasts of 2000MWh installations are realised and growth continues into 2024 that could be 10000mtV extra production needed this year and double that next year from the battery side alone. With steel demand expected to increase this year it creates the perfect storm imo.

Whilst we're certainly not there yet it might not be long before visibility of vrfb growth and an impending vanadium deficit creates the space for Mokopane to re-enter the discussion and potentially come into play.

You have to think of Mokopane in a different context... it's obviously way down the list of priorities currently but discussion of Mokopane are based on a scenario where VRFB growth plays out as Guidehouse have forecast and therefore where the sector is crying out for large projects to be initiated - in that scenario behemoths would pop out of the woodwork.

‘Yet another 52w low. Relentless.’

Not true, only the advertised bid, I’ve bought shares lower than this previously.

DD, it’s mad that a vanadium supply squeeze / increasing prices isn’t at least *partially* being priced in. With current breakeven where it is we’re not talking $85/kgV, $100/kgV, 2018/19- esque levels to see profits eclipse the current market cap… we’re talking ~$48/kgV, maybe even $45/kgV.

$60/kgV takes profit before tax to ~2X market cap. For something with a decent chance of happening that’s quite the risk/reward.

CC, more research needed on my part but this is from C-Tech Innovation:

The vanadium redox flow battery has excellent features including:

Battery lifespan period of approx. 20 years
Unlimited charge and discharge with no electrode degradation
High safety features due to no thermal runway
Most of the components can be 100% recycled at end of life/use
Ability for the vanadium electrolyte to be constantly reused in another battery or recycled
Ideal for long duration applications

'Our Vanadium Electrolyte Manufacturing Equipment can be used for the reprocessing and reuse of vanadium electrolyte. This feature of continuous use of the vanadium electrolyte in VRFBs offers tremendous value and is a key advantage for this technology.'