Member Info for HarChris

SquirtyFlower I very much apologise in that case - you're absolutely right.

Those conversions were at 12.95p and 9.97p for anyone interested.

Another positive for the investment case (which I never see mentioned) is the total lack of warrants and placee shares that could be sold into any future rise. Last February when BMN rallied from 5p to 15p Duferco was sitting there with 60+ million shares to sell into which prevented the share price going any higher.

Next time around there's even more of a free runway to go at when the catalyst arrives.

It was 67 million SF, is 100 million you just rounding it up for dramatic effect?

The dilution over the past five years has been minuscule for an AIM company faced with so many obstacles over that period. In fact I’d hazard a guess the majority of FTSE100 companies have diluted by more since 2018.

Do you have any recent recent examples CS? I’ve seen a few dumps after reiterating known facts but they tend to be high cash burning shares where ‘loss for year of £150m’ or whatever really hammers home the point. They are also ones where there’s expectation of something else being included and when it’s not the traders dump.

Unless there’s a rally before Thursday we’d need some unforeseen bad news to see a sell off from £36m mcap!

The way I see it past misfortune, past missed targets, past hype that didn’t quite materialise and current broader market conditions have led to a situation where the share price is totally divorced from reality. There are negatives as eatstocks alludes to but there are also a litany of positives. I would go as far as to say that Bushveld is now better placed than ever to thrive, to benefit from being a vertically integrated company of a critical metal at the heart of the energy transition, positioned perfectly to take full advantage of the exponential rise in annual vrfb installations as both an electrolyte producer and 25% owner of Cellcube, positioned to take full advantage of a supply shock we are likely to see in the next 6-18 months (2000MWh this year, 5000MWh next CANNOT be matched by supply).

It’s tough when the company stays silent for so long, it’s tough to keep buying when you’re underwater but I think all of the above has opened up the opportunity of a lifetime for those with cash or are just coming across the company now.

‘ In short between 2020 and 2022, there were a lot of negative news but while many are gone (floods, strikes...) it has imp left a bitter taste, however the company is in much better shape today than during that time even if the market cap dropped. ’

I think this is a fair conclusion. I’d also add that after shedding so much market cap liquidity has fallen off a cliff on AIM leaving tons of stocks seemingly well undervalued and hence jostling for investment.

Polar opposite to 2020 company’s need to earn their share price gains, average news sends the share price down, good news is sold into etc only unequivocally great news leads to a sustained share price rise.

2020, ave realised price 23.4/kgV, ave exchange rate 16.5Zar, share price ave 15p.

Q1 2023 we just saw ave realised price $41.6/kgV , ave exchange rate 17.7Zar (conservative best guesses). Average prices have dropped about 5% yet V is still so much higher than historical long term averages because the supply/demand vanadium dynamics have shifted considerably.

Confidence is going to slow return here before a big leg up when the CLN with Orion is renegotiated. Whilst those on sidelines think they can just wait and buy when they want it's far more likely this will rise steadily through 2023 and before you know it it's 10p+ and you've missed out on 150% gains because you're too busy waiting for the perfect moment.

Interesting.

Also from the last update: ' In November 2022, Vanchem and the Emalahleni municipality agreed a load curtailment solution, aimed at preventing the plant from experiencing total power loss during scheduled load shedding. Whilst we still envisage some impact, it should reduce the effect and enable Vanchem to continue to ramp up towards steady state production. The Company continues to engage other parties, including Eskom, to seek a longer-term solution. Furthermore, similar to the Vametco hybrid-mini grid, we are developing battery storage plus renewable energy solutions to supplement the power requirements of Vanchem.'

That last sentence... I wonder if we're soon to hear of a solar/vrfb mini grid at Vanchem?

Whilstit's true that some traders use stop losses they are more sophisticated than to all set them at the same price, essentially risking a house of cards collapse where the unlucky ones that get stopped out last get stopped out 20% lower.

Please don't take offence when I say it really is a ridiculous thing to be concerned about. Take it from me that you are wasting your time worrying about such a thing and move on.

We already know the non audited revenue figure for 2022, it was £21m. The main difference with this full year results compared with normal is that we'll receive the year's guidance for the first time (nothing in the full year trading update).

I can't really see how the update could dent sentiment any further but it's evidently not going to be a catalyst or turning point either.

Probably related to the £150k investment into WonderFi Technologies . Let's not forget that becoming a leading bitcoin miner was not enough for Peter, his vision was transform and disrupt the digital asset space.

Ambition and ability just didn't quite match up!

You'll notice in all the information regarding the type 31 contract wins there was never any mention of revenues being inflation adjusted... compare that with Harl and the FSS contract.

I'm fully in tune with what's going on in South Africa. Is it ideal? Obviously not. Is it why the share price is where it is? Probably, at least partially. Is the share price drop overdone because of it? In my opinion yes. Are other big companies based in South Africa giving up on the country and moving operations elsewhere? No, none of them. Some are exploring private self generation which in turn with have it's benefits for Bushveld in the medium term, as solar/battery storage gathers pace, as pressure is taken off the grid etc

However tough things get for ordinary South Africans big business will continue in earnest.

The last time a quarterly update ran into the following month was Q1 2021 so whilst possible it's rather unlikely.

US prices fallen back slightly to $41.5/kgV confirmed as of last week after average ~$43/kgV through Q1.

It does not matter now if it drops another 0.1p tomorrow or rises a third of a pence, what matters is that the Q1 update (released within 5 business days) is solid, that there's clear visibility of the cash being made, of the progress being made, of a corner being turned and ideally some of the inventory being sold.

Vanadium prices have been healthy, the exchange rate is in BMN's favour, load shedding is factored into guidance, there's no unknown expansion risks so I remain very optimistic that the update will start to push the share price back in the right direction.

It's human nature to get a bit tetchy after going a while without an update and then seeing a few large-ish sells at year lows.

Q1 update can't come quick enough!

The next metric he uses is price to book ratio but because Argo hasn't put out any figures since the interims in August 2022 he just uses those numbers and concludes that Argo is the winner on this metric.

Absolutely awful analysis.

I started watching but realised it was a waste of time when the first metric was MCap/EH in which Argo was declared the winner. MCap to EH means nothing at the extremes, the reason for the depressed market cap is reasons other than the hash rate for certain companies (like Argo).

Take Core Scientific for example in December - they had 15.5EH/s and valued at something like $20m. According to Mcap:EH they'd have been the best miner in town by a country mile!

Hexam coming back to your point about wanting/accepting further dilution - i'd go as far as to say if they simply had an At-The-Market placing locked in last year they'd been in a completely different position now, they'd have been able to raise a ton of cash through the back end of 2022 at around 40p providing constant liquidity but instead they just slowly bled cash reserves to zero.

' yeah ok but thats not fully installed and running with a workforce in place to maintain is it?'

Argo have never managed to get anywhere close to the numbers you'd expect for 2.5EH/s so in reality 2.5EH/s capacity is more like 2EH/s (being kind) of aging S19j Pros so what's that worth? $20m tops? And how much debt do they likely still have? $85m a reasonable guess?

So ask yourself would an entity with significant financial backing value Argo's installed fleet + hosting agreement - $85m debt at today's market cap ($70m), higher, or lower? I think lower but thats the simple calculation necessary right now to decide whether Argo is undervalued or overvalued.