Member Info for HarChris

'How much electrolyte do you think invinity's 30 MWh battery project will need ? '

About 1.2 million litres of electrolyte I think. One project like that will more than cover BELCO's initial capacity - just 6 or 7 similar sized orders annually would consume all 8 million litres.

Anyone have a little dabble in my Shanta Gold tip? Nice solid progress and ~15% up from when I first mentioned on here last week!

Good call RE Mara AB

I get why other miners are discussed on here but the ongoing MARA vs CLSK grudge is a bit tedious!

'30P sounds like we could see soon again … not sure about 100p but 30p is not that far away'

On what grounds? Month to date Bitcoin has risen 50% ($20K to $30K) and Argo has fallen 4%. Or if feels misleading picking that date then how about 6 weeks ago? Bitcoin up ~28%, Argo down 10%...

Either you think the market and its participants are stupid and don't realise yet that there's catching up to be had or it's something else... my money is on the latter.

Of course gold needs to stay at this level for such cash generation and profits to be realised and AISC is not breakeven price (so net profit won't be $92m) but given time if gold does stay here we'll easily see 20p minimum.

Cash is coming in thick and fast as it is with Q1 averaging around $1900 Oz but yeah, a quarter producing 25000 Oz @ $2000/Oz and we're looking at enormous cash generation that flips the net debt position to net cash.

Significant share price appreciation is inevitable if gold stays above $2000/Oz for the foreseeable.

No CS it's not a very valid point whatsoever.

There are a myriad of reasons to be critical of the BOD and the past BOD but this isn't one of them.

"WoodMac predicts that China’s production will remain relatively flat throughout the period (2023-2032).
This means its market share will fall by the end of the decade as production grows in other regions. We see several reasons why supply from China and Russia could be restricted further:

Russian steelmaker Evraz accounts for c.14% of the current vanadium supply forecasts. The company’s output has suffered limited restrictions to date but logistical challenges or future sanctions could create further disruptions.

Almost 50% of the expected supply growth by 2032 comes from greenfield projects. Difficulties to secure funding or permitting delays could prevent this supply from coming to the market as forecasted.

As stated above, Chinese production is expected to remain flat throughout the period. However, several factors could limit Chinese output growth, including:
o Chinese steel producers shifting away from expensive domestic iron ores and using
less expensive imported iron ore, which does not contain vanadium.
o The increasing use of steel scrap and shift towards newer and more environmentally
friendly electric arc furnace steel production limits the use of VTM iron ores.
o Environmental restrictions limit new capacity additions from coal stone producers"
___________________________-

Hard to see how continued development of the VRFB industry does not lead to long term higher V prices as supply gets ever more constrained and the largest producers (China and Russia) struggle to keep up.

Those of us that have tracked US prices on both Investing.com and Fast Markets over the past few years know that the latter is the accurate one. Last year the US prices deviated significantly from other markets and FM tracked it correctly throughout, backed up by the prices given by BMN in their updates. Investing.com was wrong throughout.

I'm not claiming you're intentionally misleading anyone but if you continue to use investing.com when you're now aware it's not useful for US prices and you've had Fast Markets prices shared with you I'll start to think you're doing it for expedient reasons.

Pdub great post but I want to make one point crystal clear, whilst the US V saw a small pullback through February into March it has in fact rebounded and is at it's highest level since mid 2022. We know that recently ~45% of sales are to the US and Nitrovan also goes for a premium so we are looking at very healthy margins right now if we can maintain that share - if any inventory goes stateside that's even better.

Right that's the last time I repeat it today, I promise, but it's important when AM tends to be the site used by most investors despite the inaccuracy re US prices (and European prices).

So buying well above current price means they're incompetent, not buying at this price means they have no faith in the business? Why can't it be that they believe they'll make their money back in time from their £2 buys and that it's a bit distasteful to allow the share price to fall so low only to scoop up at rock bottom prices?

I'm absolutely certain if they bought now and the share price went a lot higher in the coming months you'd be calling them crooks and criminals.

And the additional, important point you don't want to to engage with is that Fast Markets isn't showing a downward trajectory in US prices, in fact it's shown a rebound over the past few weeks to its highest price since early summer 2022.

This is significant as it's BMN's largest market by far.

Seven months*

Thanks LS for pointing out that investing.com, AM, and vanadiumprice.com are one and the same.

We saw a consistent rise in prices from August 2022 through to March 2023, so far we’ve seen a modest pullback over the past month.

Of course it would be better if V just kept going up but yes, after nine months of steady increases, I think it’s more than fair to describe a pullback through March into April as unconcerning.

Well I see you didn’t bother to take in the information in the tweet so I won’t waste my time replying again.

And no, having reached a significant production milestone with virtually zero debt TGR will almost certainly tap the debt market rather than equity market for the next stage of expansion.

Again I just don’t agree with that statement ‘the trajectory is not good’ - we have seen high V prices throughout Q1 and still they are above what they were throughout the whole of H2 last year, six months in which severe load shedding caught them by surprise, Vanchem expansion was on going and logistics and supply chain issues meant production outpaced sales and still BMN made it through without a cash call.

Now they’re in the situation where merely selling the built up inventory would provide enough funding to cover the CLN, so selling some of it and generating cash along the way sets them up nicely.

I agree BMN needs to deliver operationally but I’m willing to wait two weeks for results before making wild guesses on that front.

V is not tanking. You're simply relying on the Chinese based Asian Metal that has never been accurate on US prices. I've tracked them on Fast Markets vs Asian Metal for eighteen months and the former is always the one to trust and prices according to them in the US are still $43.6/kgV.

Granted it does appear Europe and China are falling and that's a shame but still firmly in profitability territory (Europe a tad closer to breakeven) so not a major concern right now. V205 still firmly above $9/lb so again 'tanking' is quite the push when prices in all markets are well above the long term average and US prices healthy and firm.

For someone not interested in buying even at 1.5p you sure are on top of the up to date commentary...

As it happens I largely agree with him on the importance of mgmt delivering on their guidance this year but I don't think he's given enough regard to how much better the vanadium market has held up compared to what forecasters (and himself) were expecting (a sharp decline in price due to sluggish steel demand with the energy side unable to make up for it). This gives BMN considerable headroom and opens up the possibility of massive margins this year if it turns out to be the case that this 'conservative' guidance is beaten.

All eyes on Q1 in the coming weeks.

'When does TGR stop burning cash - anytime soon?'

Yes, now. Read this thread from BBN for more detail: https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1633385300457029632