Member Info for HarChris

And I don't care what you think either. There comes a point where fundamentals win out, at the point when the company is able to return the profits to shareholders. We're just not quite at that point in the cycle, having needed considerable funding to expand amidst the covid pandemic, having had issues along the way, with V being fairly depressed for a decent period of it, with targets being missed along the way and with this year those profits needing to be used to pay off the debt obligations but once that is out the way we're looking at a totally different horizon.

I hope management improves their communications beforehand and are able to sell the story successfully so I don't have to wait another year to see big returns, I'd prefer it happens this year. But I'll continue to support the company and promote what I see as operational success whilst trying my hardest to get my points to the management on what I think they need to improve. I can assure you there's more of a benefit to the company in having balanced shareholders like me that recognise the good and the bad whilst highlighting the disconnect in the fundamentals than your 'I wonder what nasties are hiding in the closet. There's always a fly in the ointment with Mojapelo.' comments we get from you.

I continue to find these types of comparisons on an almost daily basis and am convinced that eventually value will play out.

Worried that Bushveld's profitability is unpredictable? There are hardly any AIM companies that are turning a profit, heck there are hardly any that are even EBITDA positive currently. In fact many are pre revenue needing hundreds of millions of dollars to reach Bushveld's operational size and are still valued higher than BMN.

I was taking a look at Argo Blockchain for example this morning. Expected revenue for 2023 of $45m (BMN ~$190m) with comparable total debt positions. Argo are loss making with current BTC price well below even cash cost breakeven. Cash and cash equivalents are dwindling and likely to be edging towards zero (max 6 months run rate remaining). Forced to sell their flagship asset Helios in December and alongside took another loan with the rest of their assets put up as collateral so have no chance of tapping the debt markets again, no chance of CLNs, nothing to sell to give them additional months of run rate. They are all out of options besides a (deeply discounted given the circumstances) placing unless bitcoin goes on a tear before they run out of cash.

Are they valued at a few million quid to take into account that they are in a world of trouble and almost certain to go out of business in the years ahead without a tremendous amount of luck? No, they're valued higher than Bushveld!

Why is it when I give you added detail on what’s happening to vanadium prices you ignore it? Doesn’t fit the negative narrative?

Fast Markets is the most reliable for US prices and is showing a trend reversal and now above $43.5/kgV. This is also BMN’s most important geographic partner.

China (/ rest of Asia) and Europe are a bit lower admittedly but still both at profitable levels

Well we've all seen how it can overshoot so dramatically, we're now seeing how it can undershoot so illogically too.

Once it eventually levels out you'll be well in profit with an 11p average.

Well I wasn't here stressing daily how undervalued BMN was in November 2018 at 48p.

I am here today in April 2023 at 4.3p stressing exactly that.. So don't blame me if you went all in at 48p.

That was meant to say cash costs - $25/kgV

And I have to laugh at your 'expectation of profit is built in that if it turns out not to be the case this is going to drop' rhetoric - yeah the market is absolutely expecting that as they value BMN at 45% of NAV!

Let's break it down ARCM.

Just two months ago guidance (described as conservative by Fortune) gave us AISC of ~$35/kgV and cash costs of ~$26.55/kgV. SA had just experienced its worse month of load shedding so we can comfortably assume that challenging load shedding is factored into that guidance yet as it happens March saw a significant improvement (good).

Next the price of V - Fast Markets is reliable for US prices and I am informed that current price is $43.7/kgV. Asian Metal is reliable for Chinese prices and the price there currently is $40.8/kgV. Neither site is particularly reliable for Europe so taking an average gives us ~$39.5/kgV.

Next dollar exchange rate - 17.8Zar vs guidance of 16.6Zar.

Last year saw major disruption at the port of Durban due to flooding, this year has seen nothing close to that so one less uncertainty. There were also Vanchem Kiln 3 expansion issues which again aren't a risk this year. So all in all this is the best we have now:

Average sales price (ex Nitrovan premium) through Q1 : ~$42.3/kgV
AISC - ~$33.5/kgV
Cash costs - $24/kgV

Besides the most extreme circumstances (which should have been reported to the market) BMN are currently generating huge amounts of cash with certainty and just as 'things could be worse than expected' they could also be better than expected, especially given conservative guidance.

So no need to worry pal, it's just typical AIM in what is a quiet period. Expect the share price to be much higher in the week before the update.

I disagree that there’s any chance of pulling off a CLN at this stage, too risky to the lender and nothing to back it up against. I’d call all the others essentially a placing but I’ll give you that on a technical haha

I know, I was commenting on the pluralisation - a placing is the one, sole, realistic option. And how far is £10m going to go when you compare to the amount of funding all the other miners already have/ are capable of generating?

Can’t see a turnaround here to be honest besides a bull run kicking off proper in the coming months that once again opens up the financing options beyond a £10m placing.

I agree Hexam besides the ‘ways’ in which they can raise money - I’d argue tapping the debt market is a non starter what with already having most of their machines up for collateral and there’s no assets they can sell to raise additional finance so there’s ‘one way’ left, a placing.

'Brazil mine vs SA mine - Brazil is always going to win. plus Largo isn't listed on the cesspit AIM market.'

Not true at all. Bushveld wins on the diversity front with Vanchem, Vametco (and yet to be developed) Mokopane, it wins on the life of mine front and also wins on the climate change risk front (with Largo based in a high risk flood zone).

Largo production:
2020 - 11825t V205
2021 - 10319t V205
2022 - 10436t V205

Production guidance for 2023 is still below 2020. Now compare that with BMN...

'As for March's numbers... by my rough calcs average difficulty in March is up about 12% on Feb and there's about 12% extra days in March vs Feb so you'd expect the March monthly total to be almost exactly the same as February, 162.'
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1 below for Hexam and I, not bad!

85 BTC remaining... could really do with BTC outpacing difficulty over the next month or so.

Yeah you assume correctly Pdub, I wouldn't be so heavily invested if I didn't trust the management but for a business that is in such good health and smack bang in the middle of the global energy transition it is shocking that they are instead perceived by the market as a fairly long in the tooth, dull miner slowly becoming crippled by debt. And that is the fault of management and absolutely has to change.

I do think that the fundamentals will being to speak for themselves with or without an improvement in comms in the months ahead but changes have to be made if we are ever to see the returns that BMN is capable of providing for shareholders.

'Research it, the market already has hence the price, its also looked at vanadium in rebar and the coming recession.'

Take a look at the last six months, look at the expert forecasts... they all predicted significant vanadium weakness with the fall in demand from steel far outweighing the increase in demand from energy storage... what happened? The opposite, vanadium kicked on and has seen a mere tiny pullback since.

This isn't by chance, there is evidently a structural deficit playing out in the vanadium market as a quiet vrfb revolution unfolds in China with the rest of Asia, Australia and others starting to catch up. And with more and more focus on 'greening' steel we're only likely to see demand for HSLA grow alongside.

Management has left a lot to be desired over the past year or so and there's no doubt they need to up their game to make the most of the opportunity presented to them but the future for Bushveld is looking just about as good as it ever has still.

That's right Oily, that's why the fundamentals continue to matter far more than the share price, as frustrating as it is.

This year the company can make enough to repay Orion in full and next year at 5100mtV and with Vanchem optimised, if, in theory, the share price is still as low as it is (it won't be) they could initiate the mother of all buybacks and drive the share price through the roof that way.

Global vanadium production is ~115K tonnes currently. Of the three primary producers worldwide only Bushveld has managed to increase their operations over the past few years and neither Glencore or Largo appear capable (or have the desire in Glencore's case) of ramping up production over the next few years. Evraz, the supplier of 14% of the global market currently, is in serious trouble as the sanctions continue to make operating an international steel and mining giant nigh on impossible so the likelihood of themselves managing to increase their scale in the near term is zilch... so all you're left with is co producers in China.

VRFBs have now reached GWh scale - each Gwh installation requires 5500mtV which is 5% of global supply. Medium term (2-3 years) I expect significant production to come online but short term, let's say 12-18 months, that appears very unlikely and I highly doubt China has the ability to increase its own production without steel production increasing (driving vanadium demand even higher).

Unless you have some reason to back up your 'V will normalise soon' claim I'll assume it be a throwaway, lazy comment from someone unresearched on the matter.

The share price is basically trading sideways so I find it hard to come to your conclusion. I'd also expect to see far more volume for your theory to have merit.

There is absolutely no reason to suggest V is going to 'normalise' with a vanadium market that is seeing a huge increase in demand from the energy side and very little new supply coming online. Every reason to believe V goes higher rather than lower from here especially as US metal sanctions kicking in (in fact Fast Markets is showing US at $43/kgV and rising again).

I'd argue we'll soon see $45/kgV - $50/kgV as the 'new normal'

I'm extremely confident that the drip drip of the share price is simply a few traders nipping out and into other stocks with depressed share prices that have seen recent good news land and will be back here to load up prior to the Q1 update.

It's mighty frustrating but that's what you get when communications are so clearly signposted (last week of April).

There is more than enough factual information shared between the handful of us that post here even if we lack of the depth of knowledge of the likes of Alfacomp, there is also without doubt tons of investors (/traders) that follow BMN and have them on their watchlist - it's now up to the management themselves to deliver the results that those of us still posting on here are projecting and we'll be off to the races.