Member Info for HarChris

You’re a real oddball. Novacyt has nothing to do with the covid vaccines, they are a diagnostics company that produced PCR tests on demand.

If you mean that many novacyt holders took the vaccine and supported the vaccine drive then yes you’d be right (although not Larry). You’ll also find the majority of the country took the vaccine and supported the vaccine drive so why you seem to think this BB is the prime place to post your anti vaccine links I’ll never know (besides you being a bit stupid).

Turning this board into a playground and sending informed posters packing is exactly what these types are aiming to do so no Lamps, stick around and do your best to ignore childish posts and let them standout as the trivia they are.

I'm not a denier, I kinda agree with you. I'm just not in the 'bitcoin is going to a million!' camp so wondered if you're on the same page.

If you're saying BTC is in a bull cycle where are you expecting the top to be? In a bull cycle you'd at least expect it to roam freely back to the past cycle top, not be struggling to reach even 50% of the all time high...

None have been correct? What about all those that came on here throughout H2 screaming for a placing, certain that BMN would need additional funding before the year was out? I think those of us that fought against that narrative were proved right in that instance.

The numbers are based on real data, live vanadium prices and exchange rates and guidance that was given just two months ago. It is not guesswork or wishful thinking, it's reasonable projections that will be very close to the mark. Then, after each quarterly update (as well as audited half year and full year results to fill in any gaps) we can adjust those projections if the facts on the ground have changed.

The reason you call it ramping is because the outlook is rather good right now and you'd rather it wasn't.

Funding is a major issue too. Everyone and his dog knows that Argo can't just pootle along as a 2.5EH/s capacity miner that is standing still with aging machines as difficulty reaches ever new all time highs and we get ever closer to the halving in ~ 13 months time. In such a market and with their current debt position there isn't a chance to tap the debt markets so the only realistic option now Helios has been sold is to raise, and to do it as big and as bold as possible.

Anyone that understands that isn't going to want to get caught on the wrong side of a deeply discounted placing, hence the lack of buying pressure even when BTC rises.

Ps had a little chuckle at 'crown joules' :)

AB, very good news coming out of Spain re inflation (halved to 3.1%). Good call from you, hopefully the lag playing out like you argued recently.

I've seen very little ramping on here recently, no blue sky projections etc if one simply takes guidance, the current price of vanadium, the dollar exchange rate etc to project financials it is not ramping... If i state that as things stand in 2023 BMN will post revenue of ~ $190m, gross margin $77m and profit before tax ~of $30m against a market cap of $68m this is nothing but beige factual analysis.

How on earth would owning a small amount of bitcoin insure a bank against the 'failure of fiat currency'?

The people in power now have no chance of ever retaining that power if bitcoin were to replace fiat so they are going to do everything they can to prevent it from happening in the first place.

And just to highlight the difference in the financials...

You can see from today's price action at GDR that investors are wary of a placing. So you have current share price 34p / £31.5m mcap. In this environment there's no chance of a raise without at least a 15% discount to market price so call it a placing at 28p / £26m mcap. A 10% dilution can raise £2.6m, at 20% dilution they can raise £5.2m, at 40% dilution they raise £10.4m.

Novacyt are incredibly well placed to merge / acquire promising diagnostic co.s that simply can't survive these harsh market conditions.

Exactly. it is damn hard to make a lot of money in the small cap diagnostics field. A “hive of activity, lots of rns’s” should not value a company equivalent to another with £87m net cash just because the former is a bit more handy with their communications than the latter.

Why don’t you give us some of your numbers and forecasts then?

Use Asian Metal for Chinese prices and the general V trend but not for Europe and especially not for the US price.

'It needs to stay and close above 12.75p otherwise more falls likely than not. (dyor etc etc)"'

Well that was a better afternoon - as long as the wider markets continue rallying we'll have seen the bottom this week.

Listening to Fortune it's clear that in his opinion hitting / exceeding guidance is top of the list of things that will improve sentiment. It is much easier to foresee production this year because there's no major expansion going on so what we have with a 4200mtV to 4500mtV guidance is one that factors in the worst case scenario re load shedding and everything else as expected. Yet what we're seeing is significant improvement on the load shedding front...

Why don't you think sales will match production this year? We've got to remember that the inventory has built up largely because of covid related logistics/supply chain issues as well as the major Durban floods last year. Fortune stated in the Q1 analyst call that the aim is to sell a quarter of the inventory this year (~225mtV). So there is reason to believe that upper end guidance will be hit + let's say 200mtV extra sales now many of the past issues are no longer a factor. That would leave BMN with enough cash to repay Orion in full but I don't see a problem if we come up $10m short. It will mean Orion will have received $35.5m ($25m + $10.5m interest payments over the three years) with a new loan to bridge the gap + perhaps fund stage 1 of the 4 stage expansion plan.

Ben, have you seen the Dollar/Rand expectations from Arc? It's 15.5Zar! Average through 2023 so far is ~17.8Zar and increasing by the day so if we take 18Zar as the average through 2023 cost of sales drop by $18m and total costs become $152m.

So at $42.5/kgV and 18Zar we need to sell 3580mtV to breakeven and 4350mtV (guidance) gives us profit of ~$32m. And then there's the 900mtV inventory that is pure profit on top.

$32m profit just by hitting what's been described as conservative guidance sure ain't bad for a $60m mcap company with $300m+ assets to boot.

It's worth looking back to the Orion financing deal signed in 2020.

The $65m funding package consisted of a $30m PFA and a $35m CLN. BMN satisfied the conditions with V in Europe at $23.5/kgV in the run up to signing and just $24/kgV on the day of signing. V in China was only marginally healthier at $27/kgV (no data to hand on US prices at the time but they were roughly inline).

This cash was meant to allow grow Bushveld's production at Vametco to 4200mtV and Vanchem's to 2600mtV with a share conversion taking place at 17p with up to 205 million shares issued. Fortune stated in the call after Q1 that Vanchem will reach its 2600mtV steady run rate in Q2 this year so that is about to be achieved in the timeframe. Plans have changed in regards to Vametco as we know from the 22nd June expansion rns with a focus now on Vanchem (as it's 100% owned vs 74% Vametco). BMN have reached the stage where they are now able to self-fund much of the future planned expansion.

Three years ago when the finance deal was signed BMN were a 3500mtV producer in the midst of the covid pandemic with potentially heavy cash burn ahead (with V prices so low) yet still commanded a 12.5p share price pre funding package and ~17p post funding (with a high of 23p a few months later).

BMN now, far from burning through cash, are generating it at levels similar to what they were in the 2018/19 period (where the share price peaked at 49p). This looks like providing them the option to pay off Orion in full (with at most a small loan to bridge any gap) instead of the large dilution that was initially expected. The funding package has seen them navigate through the covid pandemic, through the worst load shedding in South Africa's history, grow production 25% rising to just shy of 50% by the end of this year (when 5100mtV is achieved). They will also become an electrolyte producer within 3 months.

With VRFB growth taking off and the vanadium market dynamics looking so strong it's a total anomaly that BMN today sits at 4p - I have no doubt that once the Orion CLN is put to bed at some point in the coming months Bushveld will trade at many multiples of today's price.

There isn't a chance you'll disappear quietly, not a chance. Even when we had the sportsmen bet with whoever losing never posting again on here you lasted less than 24 hours.

Your grandstanding today is tedious.

Not been here very long myself, wasn’t even aware of BMN pre covid.

I can tell from other posts of yours that you’ve followed BMN far longer than I have HMHG.