Member Info for HarChris

Yeah they will be. We’ve been told by Fortune how much they hope to sell this year - a quarter of the stockpile.

For me the most important thing right now is that BMN are in CLN negotiation / specialist funder discussions as a highly cash generating miner - the jump in average realised V price of ~$42.5/kgV vs ~$36.5/kgV in Q3/Q4 is a big deal. We're seeing much lower costs from the favourable exchange rate to boot.

It would be great to see some of the inventory has been sold in Q1 and showing a strong cash position would be the icing on the cake but happy to wait til the interims if necessary for that.

I think you’re wrong Lindon - December’s shipments were very large (390T?) and because of the lagged effect we’ll be seeing that show through in Q1.

So take December, January and February as Q1 and what you have is sales > production.

There are too many variables to be able to predict with anywhere close to accuracy.

In regards to Argo the big one is funding. IF bitcoin kicks on towards $40k do investors/traders ignore Argo's need to raise (in what is a nasty tightening credit market) allowing the share price to really rally or does the awareness around a sudden heavily discounted placing continually slam the brakes on?

If BTC kicks on even further than that I do think the former wins out.

Ha I've not been paying much attention to everyone's views, I simply responded to Valju's interpretation of your views, which I don't subscribe to.

I don't feel too dissimilar to what you just wrote though K.

Well you've argued that they're trying to encourage LTHs to sell for years now, surely there's more active ways they could do that than simply standing still operationally speaking and preserving the cash position? It doesn't make sense to me, if that was the case DA would have been in on it and he'd still be there. And why would they purposely wreck the company to take it private over many, many years when they had the potential to get very rich from the LTIP?

So yes to me that is a conspiracy theory and highly illegal.

As to your last point yes that's what I'm saying... I imagine in their eyes they see the share price (still!) as simply noise. They have the net cash position of a $500m company and if they truly believe they are going to see a postive outcome from the dispute then that windfall will increase significantly. And however poor operationally performance has been they know full well that if/when they are able to turn it around, start increasing revenues, start on the M&A, the share price will go through the gears in a flash. As long as they maintain that cash safety net.

My views on JW differ to Kaeren's though!

I think I missed the sarcasm, sorry!

I’ll make the telegram group later for starters and see how many are keen to join up, if it looks promising enough then I’d be happy for a zoom call or even a meet up if you so desire!

One issue though is I think we have very different ideas of what’s going on with novacyt. I very much subscribe to the incompetence angle, particularly in regard to DA and mgmt sticking with a risk averse approach for the time being, ensuring the cash position remains strong and preparing for the longer term post-dispute outcome.

I don’t buy into any of the conspiracies whatsoever!

Oh come on Val, in one breath you’re saying serious investors only and in the next trying to sign PI100 up.

What's the opposite of rose-tinted glasses?

Pretty sure the same thing was happening to take novacyt down to new lows this week but I didn't notice you pointing that out- instead you hypothesised that we might be about to be hit with bad news.

Is 'anything is possible with an AIM minnow' the best you have in response to 'articulate to me why BMN is worth less than £55m?'

I don't mean to be rude HMHG but are you a teenager?

I really am surprised at how little the miners have reacted today - I thought this was the start of the 2020-like hype train.

Either way, bitcoin has certainly shown amazing strength over the past week. Certainly caught me out frustratingly.

No it's not the only metric that matters, what matters to any investor is a combination of the share price, the fundamentals, the market outlook, the market dynamics etc

You then decide at any given time whether to buy more, hold or sell if already owning shares or whether to buy if on the sidelines. If you think BMN is overvalued at £55m mcap it would be great to see the sums that got you to that conclusion...

'It's a PCR company. No more and no less.
Its drifting back to what it was before Covid gave it Icarus wings.'

Yes they have failed to show the competence necessary up until now to take advantage of the situation but pre covid they had £1.5m cash and £7m debt, now they have £87m cash and £0 debt after paying out huge sums for the LTIP and buying IT IS for £10.1m. There is no way it can just drift down to pre covid share-price level.

There is still a fantastic opportunity here, especially if their growth strategy ends up revolving around M&A in such times.

'I'm going into MARA heavy tomorrow, if btc stays above 28,000.'

Did you, PI?

I’d be up for meeting but I agree with Wilson that we’d need to collectively own at least a good few million shares to have any impact whatsoever - im happy to make a telegram group and see how many we can get to join and what our collective holding amounts to?

The market doesn't work like that, at least not currently... This is AIM, the market / traders are simply estimating the probability of the next bit of news / wider market sentiment being good or bad. If they think the share price goes lower before it rises they sell, if they think it's going higher they buy.

No one's playing the long game here, nobody's estimating the odds of a successful dispute outcome. They might start doing that in the spring of 2024 but for now that's a lifetime away.

Ha more or less bang in between the two.

And unless you've got a million or so shares tucked away I think we're going to need more than just the two of us to have some impact!

Exactly GBcol, I take comfort in Schroders taking as many shares as they have in the placing.

I suppose a part of me is thankful / relieved that DA’s incompetence didn’t lead to him squandering the majority of the cash in bank. At least now there’s the chance for another start.

I’m based South East, on the coast…