Member Info for HarChris

We’re given the overall production guidance and the overall cash costs averaged out across both Vametco and Vanchem, we don’t need to work them out separately.

As it happens that $26/kgV will be something like $23.8/kgV Vametco and $27.7/kgV Vanchem with production weighted slightly to the former.

The cash burn shrinks considerably now (all things being equal) because there’s no huge LTIP payments to dole out.

Sure so by that reasoning we are largely below cash value because of the dispute. So leaving everything out besides the dispute we could end up with anything from wipeout to ~ £150m in cash?

So the range of outcomes from here are 100% loss of capital to 4X - if you think there’s more than 50/50 chance of a positive outcome then it’s a no brainer to buy now and just wait for the outcome in 2024- you’ll never get odds like this from the bookies!

I’m thinking to buy back the ones I sold when I last reduced as I don’t need the cash anytime soon.

The amount of money coming in vs the amount of money coming out - sales minus cash costs - gross profit.

Costs aren’t $28/kg, they are ~ ‘$26.1kgV and US$27.0/kgV’ and that’s with ZAR 16.7 so actually closer to $25/kgV at this present moment.

The last comment referred to how much of that will end up being net profit (which is kinda irrelevant at this stage). I think dividing our gross profit by 3 would give a close approximation of profit before tax.

So this debt free company valued at £38m could, tomorrow, buy a £70m company outright in cash and still be fully financed to manage day to day operations.

Certainly never seen anything like this before.

Daily cash generation is about $225K a day or $1.6m a week if sales are equal to production (i.e no inventory sold / no further build up).

If you mean actual net profit well there's too many factors to give an accurate answer but probably about a quarter of the above.

Adding to Kaeren's point I do think HARL would have been in serious trouble now if Team Resolute had not won the FSS bid and that was reflected in the share price through 2022 but Resolute did win the contract, £800m and the huge investment going into the yards (largely subsidised) has come Harl's way plus the staunch government backing radically transforms the long term outlook.

There's still more to be done to prove the business model, we will need to see new contract wins come through in 2023 and 2024 across the five markets Harl are operating in but for me it's so far so good.

Shown incredible strength since midday Friday, got to be said.

In much the same way the fed wants to see a huge rise in the number unemployed to help ease the inflationary pressures.

I don’t agree. If the small cracks in the economy and banking sector start to reveal themselves as fissures and still the Fed refuses to backdown on their interest rate programme it shows that nothing will get in their way of meeting the primary objective of bringing inflation down to less than 2% - even if it causes a crash and destruction in its wake.

Two ways to look at it AB - (i) like you say, the Fed is forced to backtrack from the 50 BP hike or (ii) which I think will be the case, the Fed shows they mean business re bringing down inflation and go ahead with it anyway causing more panic on the markets.

It’s just the trolls that don’t like to discuss the inventory, it doesn’t help their narrative when you realise the inventory alone is worth close to the current market cap.

They might end up selling a good chunk of it to easily clear the debt but a few reasons why they might not…
(i) they won’t need to, they are generating significant cash as we speak and aren’t starting from zero, so any shortfall come November would be far less than $35m (sans inventory)
(ii) they probably won’t want to, keeping an inventory is important now they are also producing electrolyte, not to mention the flexibility it gives them I.e being able to sell more when prices are at their highest
(iii) have you ever run a mining company? I haven’t but I assume it’s not that simple to just sell near 1000 extra tons just like that, especially as you are hitting record production - selling 777mtV of the stockpile this year would mean reaching over 5000mtV in sales (~4350mtV production).

Is haemorrhaging money faster than anyone ever has over at Twitter not enough for young Elon?!

I imagine you could count on one hand the amount of companies on AIM that are currently generating more cash than Bushveld.

There's nothing special about any of these companies. Some have a higher hash rate, some are holding more bitcoin, some have higher debt, some have minimal debt, some have virtually zero debt, some have lower electricity costs etc etc not sure why you continue to fight over which is the best, there's no way of knowing which comes out on top unless you know the trajectory of bitcoin over the next 3, 6, 12, 18 months. The riskier ones will bring either the biggest returns or the biggest losses, the least risky will fall somewhere in between.

Many will bail out if there's contagion from a crypto banking collapse with no safety net or protection, yes I think so.

No that's not good enough, none of that has any link to BMN share price being 'toppy' at 5p / £63m., they are simple risk factors that may or may not be true all the way from 4p to 20p.

That’s true but a lot of pain has been priced in - do you take risk-free 5% or invest in companies that have seen 90% falls and have 500% in them just to return to 50% of their former value?

It’s for that very reason that many will have exited the market in 2022 and it’s now that they’ll likely start to scale back in, or at least at some point in 2023.

Yeah I have it downloaded, happily send it to you on Telegram if you message me.