Member Info for HarChris

What can Argo do to prevent itself falling behind the rest of the pack currently? Nothing. Bitcoin rising provides the opportunity for significant expansion for other miners but not Argo. As things stand the rise in bitcoin is enough to more than offset the increase (and potential increase in difficulty) but what if bitcoin starts retracing? Argo's margins get squeezed and squeezed.

Ps did you close your Mara trade AB? Very nice rise over there!

Fastmarkets and Asian Metal both have US FeV 80 between 44.5 and 45 so there's reason to trust that figure.

https://twitter.com/BigBiteNow/status/1633878456659513344

And assuming the worst and a banking crisis does unfold do you think the miners that have already invested/reinvested over $200m to get to the point where they are not only EBITDA positive but making a net profit and capable of self funding operations are a better bet or those at the feasibility study or early growth stage needing to raise that $200m or so in the coming years?

Bushveld are priced as the latter when they are the former, the difference is going to prove stark.

Alex there’s nothing to doubt here. Last year BMN undertook the expansion at Vanchem and it came with teething problems as often happens with projects of that magnitude. Additionally V in Europe was at just $30/kg for long periods and below $35/kg for half the year with China not much higher, the dollar/rand exchange rate was not in our favour and load shedding caught BMN by surprise.

Expansion has now completed and BMN are able to benefit from the increased scale, V ranges from $41.5/kg in Europe to $44.75 in China and rest of Asia and $45/kg in the US, the dollar/rand exchange rate has swung wildly in our favour and an agreement is in place to mitigate against the operational loss caused from load shedding at Vanchem.

I have no doubt whatsoever that the cash position is increasing significantly but the market will have to wait til end of April to be assured.

Average prices were even lower in Q3 and yet BMN made it through Q3 and Q4 with just $7m whilst refurbing kiln 3, with all the load shedding (pre Elalahmeni agreement) and producing more than they sold. Remarkable really.

Makes you realise just how much cash they are generating now.

Right, time to say it… nice trade AB! Good call there.

I agree, in such a climate it's crucial to move your money into businesses that are fully cashed up or are self-sufficient and generating significant cash - BMN is in a great position to flourish over the next 12 months when others will be finding themselves in all sorts of trouble.

Not long now til the next quarterlies when it will be clear for all to see.

Please don't present your opinion as fact, JRDC. There is absolutely nothing to suggest what you've just said is true and representatives of the company have stated the opposite.

Thanks for such a thorough reply B2, but do you really think holding on to £87m constitutes keeping a tight rein on spending? That is above and beyond the sort of cash position necessary to make it through a rocky 12-24 months.

I do agree though that there's no rush for M&A however frustrating it is for us shareholders sitting on paper losses - all the while they have such a war chest there is the potential for a complete turnaround here.

You're completely right, I've woken up on the wrong side of the bed today and looking to be combative for the sake of it.

I very much apologise - sorry!

There was an air of celebration this morning that you'd all called this right, even a well done thread, yet nasdaq futures has already gone from 1.5% up to red since 9am.

Bit premature I think.

Yeah agree with that LA but you were well off the mark when you said ' why would it cause “more panic on the markets” if the Fed just went ahead and did what it was (likely) going to do anyway? That’s the known.' - It certainly would have caused a severe market reaction and in the end had to be taken off the table.

My point still is that whilst it has given them an 'excuse to pause', (well slow the hikes anyway) this wasn't the excuse they were looking for (banks collapsing) - the excuse the markets wanted was inflation receding fast.

JP Morgan "continue to look for a 25bp hike at next week's" FOMC meeting
JP Morgan forecast a 25bp hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 21/22

'The current projection is for a 25 bps move, with some even expecting no hike at all.'

As I said, market reaction now rests on 0 vs 25BP with the latter currently given the greater likelihood.

We're now in a situation where it's either rates remain unchanged vs 25 BP hike - the former is seen as dovish and positive, the latter (the most likely) now becomes the hawkish move.

I don't think the markets respond positively because, following a number of bank closures, the Fed merely tightens less than it was planning to. The fact remains they are likely to continue tightening.

For me it’s not really the point, the point is that first and foremost their focus is on bringing inflation down and yet there are signs of the economy collapsing well before they’ve come close to achieving that aim. So even if, given the heightened uncertainty right now, they go with 25bp, I think they’ll still continue hiking throughout the year ending up with more or less the same result.

It is not a positive if they have to slow interest rate hikes down because the economy is creaking, it’s lose/lose.

I certainly hope they use cash for M&A rather than shares at this lowly valuation - what’s the point of it otherwise? £10m would be enough to give them huge working capital legroom and they have almost nine times that.

Yeah fair enough, I get that BC's probably just winding Chaebol up with that comment!

I'm close to my share price targets now for re-entry but won't get them if markets respond better than expected to the recent banking crisis. I do think 2023 is going to offer up even better prices at some point though.

We are now entering the situation I've been talking about for over a year now - worsening economic conditions that leave any low cash debt ridden companies extremely vulnerable. The past three months have seen small caps moving very early and executing placings at huge discounts to prevent the risk of insolvency, now all those that took their time will face even more difficulty in finding the necessary financing to keep them operating.

All that has played out as expected, the question is is there a functioning management team here at Novacyt to start acquiring those troubled businesses?

'lovely trade AB!'

Bought 5.8, pre nasdaq opening price 5.76, also factoring in large FX fees. Am I missing something?

Not a dig at you AB, just don't get the praise for a (currently) loss making trade!