Member Info for HarChris

I'm more than happy to be involved in a group that attempts to reach out to the management to voice our concerns but unless we collectively own a decent percentage of the company it won't have much of an effect. I own just under 30K shares.

As it happens I'm not as desperately worried as others all the time the company maintains such an enormous cash position whilst in the midst of what appears to be a banking contagion.

Covid intraday low was 66p.

NCYT £37m
GDR £43m

Quite a staggering fact.

And there's every reason to expect a positive resolution from Orion. We're talking ~$40m total owed (end of Dec) with the cash position at $10m so $30m shortfall and ~900mtV stockpile ready to be shipped and sold.

The 900mtV inventory at current prices would sell for ~$38m which would more than cover the shortfall but let's be realistic and accept it's not all going to be sold this year. So next we turn to the underlying operations... we can be as close to certain that BMN are generating significant cash so far through 2023 so between that and selling a portion of the inventory we should reach the amount to be repaid.

But let's go further and assume a shortfall remains.... Orion has a $30m Production Finance Agreement with Bushveld that locks them in as a long term partner. Does Orion strong-arm BMN over a small shortfall come November that potentially jeopardises their relationship and prevents them ever seeing returns from their PFA? Why would they not renegotiate with a profit-making business that only fell short on the CLN (17p) because of a depressed share price given very different market circumstances? And that is now generating as much cash as it is? They aren't going to... but even if that were the case BMN will have other creditors to turn to to bridge the gap.

So no I'm not playing down the near term CLN issue here but I have every reason to be very confident that a solution will be found for the reasons given and so if the share price is in large part where it is because of the debt overhang then I see this as an amazing opportunity to get in at the bottom.

No, you aren't grasping the simple point I'm making.

Currently there's two sides to this coin, there's the operational progress and the poor share price performance. Virtually no one (bar the odd exception) is questioning the operational progress, where all the criticism comes is in the latter so I'm highlighting that we are very close to the stage where the operational progress cannot be ignored from a share price perspective. Even if you are to take the view that Fortune is clueless when it comes to PR and managing the share price, the profits will be too large (all things being equal) to ignore and if they are ignored (share-price wise) then returning that profit to shareholders via dividends will certainly put an end to that.

Yes we should first focus on the CLN, yes navigating that successfully is extremely important but BMN find themselves in a far stronger position than they would have been if V was still < $40/kg average like it was through much of 2022 and if the dollar hadn't strengthened so much against the rand.

It's a very simply investment case for me. If the profit margins stay this healthy then there is every reason to expect a positive resolution with Orion and we then become a hugely profitable business that has been considerably derisked with no short term debt (and much lower long term debt). So what we need is continued good news on the V front and time.

I was making the point that the market cap is so low at $68m that *theoretically* BMN could be earning more than enough to pay out 50% dividends from next year ($34m profit and some).

Obviously they won't as profit will be reinvested but I'm stressing the ludicrously low market cap for a company that's generating so much cash right now and so much profit in the very near future.

What on earth are you talking about? I believe strongly that the risk/reward from here is exceptionally good but I am not running the company and I don’t ever pretend that any investment, however good the case for it is, is a dead cert.

So no I will not apologise if people lose money from here, I’ll be as gutted as the rest.

I don’t care if it’s jam in a year, two or even five if the jam is as sticky and sweet as I think it will be.

Buyers at this price in theory could receive 50% yearly dividends from 2024 onwards once the CLN is repaid, how ridiculous is that?

That's how low the market cap is compared to near term profitability.

'BMN does have potential, it could be very profitable.'

Replace could be with already is and I'd have to 100% agree with you.

A passionate and enjoyable read ValJu! And you managed thirty five lines before stoking the incredibly long and drawn out beef you've maintained with Huey! Good job.

I don't think it's a realistic possibility ValJu - last year resentment reached fever pitch and STILL all resolutions passed. This time around I would imagine many of the most ****ed off will have sold up and moved on so it just won't be possible from a BB like this, with barely any contributors, to gather the necessary votes.

And anyway, are we to believe everyone and the amount of shares they claim they have? Without naming names some claims seem very dubious to me.

AB I'm hijacking this thread to carry on our discussion from the other day.

Did you see the ECB caused a bit of a surprise by sticking with their 0.5% interest rate hike today? Seeing more commentary today re bank liquidity crisis not insolvency crisis hence Fed still able to continue with their plan to reach 6% in 2023.

It's certainly a biggie next week and then potentially all eyes on April 12.

It just shows how much hype and momentum plays on AIM, it's far more important than fundamentals. Novacyt have as little of it as it's possible to have and GDR has it in bucketloads so much so that a (similar) business with less than one year of cash runway can be valued close to another that has enough runway at current operating levels to last well into the next decade.

I'm still of the opinion that fundamentals will always win out, even if it takes years.

The 360 days figures are just plain wrong.

I only use AM to get an idea of the day to day and week on week trend, I tend to find it isn't that reliable otherwise.

Well we have Q1 end of April as usual but also many other pieces of news very much *imminent* :

BE Spin off
Electrolyte production commenced
Vamecto mini grid complete
BELCO off-take contracts

& possibly news on restructuring of Orion CLN.

Small pullback in V205 and FeV - now back at ~$43.2/kgV group realised price (assuming 2022 geographic sales mix).

Cash costs down to ~$24.1/kgV (dollar continuing to strengthen against rand).

This is what i'm looking for now:

(i) Fed pivot
(ii) A CPI print below 6% which shows inflation coming down without the need to restart i.rate hikes.

So next week could see a tick for (i) and then not long after (ii) to kickstart a bull run. Agree with that thinking?

AB, i'm interested in your view on this...

The market has for a long while been waiting for a pivot before it's free to meaningfully rally. The hope though was always that CPI figures would give Powell enough space to pause rate hikes, not a real threat of economic crisis unfolding.

Now I grant you that CPI is pointing in the right direction but it came in as expected, it came in in line with expectation, expectations that meant Powell was almost certainly going with a .5% hike next before the recent developments.

Putting bitcoin aside (which may actually continue its rally irrespective of the US markets) do you personally think Powell being forced to pivot more because of potential banking contagion than because of getting a handle on inflation is likely to kickstart the next bull run?

I bought here on Monday after coming round to your way of thinking, timed it perfectly and bought at 12.75p. Did I hold out and sell above 15p? No got too jumpy before the CPI print and sold in the 13s!

Don't think I have the cajones to hold for any length of time here or to make anything more than beer money. Argo will need to raise money and I expect a discounted placing to land at some point.