Member Info for HarChris

‘HarChris I’ve not been here for very long but I have it on good authority that Sanchez became disillusioned with the company and sold up’

That made me laugh out loud.

And yeah not surprised re Sanchez, he was simply a trader and this hasn’t exactly been a good trading share for a while. Folk like him will dip in and out on the way back up to fair value.

ARCM is not referring to the likes of Pdub or myself, but Sanchez (as you well know as he states that), AlfaComp, gambit, Libero etc

The above ARE tired of the trolls and hence no longer (or very rarely) post here anymore.

My reply was to ARCM's 'all we need is positive news to drop' as I don't think that's the case, I think all we need is to be patient until developments slowly unfold over the next two, four or at most 8 months that prove that the perceived risks have not /will not materialise and for BMN to then be revalued as a 5100mtV+ profit making vanadium producer with no short term debt.

I'd be more specific and say what we need is uncertainty over the November CLN removed and then we will quickly find the share price many multiples of where it is now. This is as tough a market as I've ever seen for small caps so it's somewhat understandable that money is on the sidelines here until that risk is eliminated. For me it's not a big concern though because whether you are a fan of Fortune or not we all know he's shown that he's a brilliant negotiator in the past and there are lots of positive ways this plays out...

From the beginning of the year we're talking ~$38m to be repaid and we'll be starting from a ~$10m base. BMN are sitting on ~900mtV of costed inventory which comes in at $38m at current prices (the total repayment amount) and cash generation in a year with almost zero capex and an extremely strong dollar will be enormous (cash costs ~$25/kgV vs ~$42.5/kgV average sales price).

BMN are in a far, far stronger position than many realise but until they do realise / it's 100% confirmed we will have to wait for the share price appreciation that'll come.

Yeah but worth remember that February's numbers were a huge improvement on the previous month so we'll see whether February's BTC/EH was an anomaly, the new norm or if there's even further improvement to be had.

Thanks, yeah I get that accurate guesswork isn't possible because of the unknown hosting arrangement.

As for March's numbers... by my rough calcs average difficulty in March is up about 12% on Feb and there's about 12% extra days in March vs Feb so you'd expect the March monthly total to be almost exactly the same as February, 162.

Been away for a week and only just catching up - looks like good news on the DHSC Claim front with the market now starting to appreciate it also!

Whether or not Argo are generating cash depends on the current cash cost breakeven...

Hexam, given everything you know + bitcoin difficulty what's your best current guess of the above?

‘Pmsl - you having a wind up? The debt is bigger than the market cap. Where's the money coming from for a dividend?’
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This metric either tells you that the debt is too high or the market cap is too low... seeing as 50% of the debt is going to be paid off in November from cash generation / selling of inventory I’m going with the latter.

Navigate the next six months successfully and we will see Orion converting at 17p and becoming a major shareholder.

And now the confirmation of Everbrite's 4% stake...

Who'd have thought a month ago when the placing landed just how opportunistic the timing would turn out to be?! Would have been awful heading through 2023 with the knowledge that a placing was always just around the corner.

Now if 2023 turns out to be 'Invinity's year' like Larry stated recently the share price is free to move through the gears alongside.

Chopsing's right. There's three possible outcomes here:
(i) BTC fails to ignite over the next eighteen months and Argo ends up defaulting on its debts and having to say goodbye to its Helios machines and Canadian machines via the collateral package.

(ii) BTC shows strength and fluctuates in a higher range ($30k to $50k perhaps?) and Argo is diluted to death in order to raise the necessary funds to have any chance of keeping up with difficulty and reaching profitability.

(iii) BTC goes on such a tear ($100K+ ?) that even after heavy dilution the share price continues rocketing and we see a (more modest) repeat of early 2021

Is it really too difficult to you to grasp? A broker target by itself means nothing, a target based on a set of assumptions that aren't there at the time (RBC broker report compiled in September) but have culminated since (V risen considerably, costs falling) is worth taking note.

Okay for the simpletons at the back. Forget the number as that seems to bother you because of past history and consume the information like this:

RBC compiles a downside scenario, a base case and an upside scenario - at this point in time the upside scenario is being exceeded. Anyone even remotely reasonable would admit that this is good news.

I don't think you understand the targets I'm referring to.

RBC has three cases based on vanadium prices - one that sees the share price far lower than it is now, one where it sees it at 6p and one where it sees it at 18p. The actual vanadium prices and exchange rate are so healthy right now as to exceed RBC's upside scenario.

This is not the same as house broker SP Angel throwing out pie in the sky valuations - this is a highly respected broker.

Rubbish cindercone. The targets by themselves mean nothing, the targets based on fundamentals that are currently being achieved do.

Previous targets were not met because BMN didn't reach the production/revenue/profit estimations, right now that's very different.

And RBC's target of 18p is based on a group realised price of $40/kgV and ZAR/USD of 17.3.

Current group realised price ~$43/kgV, ZAR/USD 18.2

I don't get why you're so bullish on bitcoin and Mara at the mo if you really believe all this. Do you seriously think we could see a full blown market collapse with bitcoin immediately disconnecting and soaring north?

There's certainly a case for it medium term but short term bitcoin would go down with everything else.

This is a good example of what happens when there's uncertainty in the markets, smalls caps are treated as one ****genous group and are sold off indiscriminately yet it makes no sense why a company like TGR with zero debt that's reached a significant cash generating milestone would be under so much pressure.

Huge potential here to rebound even with current market conditions.

'When will the next bull run arrive?'

When inflation is shown to be under control? Next CPI print is a biggie.

AsianMetals has been showing a small pullback this past week whilst on FastMarkets US/Europe prices appear firm. Therefore the best guess I have for prices are as follows:
US FeV $44/kgV
China FeV $41.8/kgV
Europe FeV $40/kgV

Dollar = 18.16 so taking 2023 guidance (current best estimate):
Cash costs ~ $24.7/kgV
AISC $33.9/kgV

Healthy margins maintained and going by AM this could well be the end of the pullback. Onwards and upwards to the Q1 trading update.