Member Info for HarChris

Nothing worse than talking like you’ve been here for years with an account that isn’t even two weeks old.

For certain people it takes just one bad streak, one short period of doubling, trebling and quadrupling down on a bad stock to lose everything.

They cannot possibly be in serious trouble with nearing on £100m in the bank and £0 debt.

If you mean 'if there is no significant rise in sales during this period then the company has an awful lot of work to do' then yes I agree.

It reminds me of this in October 'Barclays (BCS) says it remains positive about the long-term viability of bitcoin (BTC), and views bitcoin miner Core Scientific (CORZ) as a “best-in-class, leveraged play on the crypto ecosystem.”

Less than a month later the share price was down ~90%.

We are at mightily depressed prices so if institutions want to build a position down here then they are more than welcome. Even if it spikes the price and they end up averaging 7/8p that is still a deep discount.

There's always an option to start building a position down here with a heads up that there might be a fundraise 18 months down the line - a bit of give and take.

Completely agree Fara. A fundraise would only make sense if BMN were in a rush to expand but they aren't, Fortune has spoken on numerous occasions about consolidation and maintaining the steady run rate about 5000mtV before proceeding with growth plans.

In about eighteen months from now management will either tap the debt markets again (easier to do this as a profitable entity with vastly lower total debt) or a combination of debt and equity if the share price is far healthier.

Agree Hexam, what I probably should have said is that whatever happens to bitcoin in the coming weeks and months (besides $100k type rise!) Argo remains *at best* a trading share until finance is sorted.

This is a trading share currently, it's all about getting in and out with some profit before financing is announced. For that reason it's hard to see any meaningful move that is not sold into.

The debt shrinks by the end of this year no matter how things play out which will mean far less of BMN's profits going to servicing that debt (~3.5m less a year).

At last count total debt was ~$80m. By the end of this year it will be ~ $40m if the debt is fully repaid or ~$50m-$55m if there's a restructuring / new loan taken on to pay off Orion.

$40m-$55m total debt (all of which shifts to long term debt) is peanuts for an entity as large as BMN is becoming.

PI, please tell me you aren't betting the house on a Cineworld recovery?!

Current assets > current liabilities
Total assets dwarf total liabilities.

BMN is not a company in any trouble whatsoever, they'll have just seen huge cash inflows in Q1 and still, despite a bit of a pullback, are comfortably profitable as we head through Q2.

The IM Judicial Review decision is a huge moment for us obviously - fingers crossed it goes our way and the potential here balloons.

This is as pure a case of patience and trusting management to deliver as it gets, with a healthy dose of government backing.

Give it six to twelve months and the share price should be in a far higher range and momentum will only build as we get closer to the FSS contract work feeding into the accounts.

That’s at 16.6Zar, will end up at least a few hundred thousand dollars less.

Total capital cost for 2023 which includes the last 20% of the build, the testing, the commissioning etc is expected to come in at Zar39m so I highly doubt it's going to take 4 times that to reach the 8m litre capacity - i'd hazard a guess it won't cost very much at all.

And going back to the discussion over vanadium content per MWh, the last Bushveld rns contains this text:

'Each litre of vanadium electrolyte will contain between 82 and 92 grams of vanadium, with the plant using over 1,100 tons of vanadium oxide equivalent at full production.'

I'll stick with 1MWh = 5.5MtV as that is what the company continues to claim.

Fortune also answered a question in the analyst call after the Q4 update relating to Vanchem and load shedding. Although I don't have it to hand and can't remember the wording the jist was that he expects Vanchem to be fully optimised by Q2 2023 (I think) and hence reach the 5000mtV+ run rate.

Yes, that was in the Q3 update, this was in the Q4:

'In November 2022, Vanchem and the Emalahleni municipality agreed a load curtailment solution, aimed at preventing the plant from experiencing total power loss during scheduled load shedding. Whilst we still envisage some impact, it should reduce the effect and enable Vanchem to continue to ramp up towards steady state production. The Company continues to engage other parties, including Eskom, to seek a longer-term solution. Furthermore, similar to the Vametco hybrid-mini grid, we are developing battery storage plus renewable energy solutions to supplement the power requirements of Vanchem.'

I've always used 1MWh equalling 5.5MtV whilst assuming it to be on the less conservative side.

The 'funding secured for Vametco hybrid mini-grid' RNS we got last year though stated 26mtV was sold for electrolyte for the 4MWh system however - that comes out at 6.5MtV per 1MWh so if that's accurate it's even better for us...

They raised $160m from the two placings and $40m in Senior Loan notes and then about $100m loan from NYDIG and even that wasn't enough to be competitive. Not even close.

Granted machine costs are much lower right now but they'll need to raise finance soon before prices appreciate to have any sort of chance and yet they have a market cap of barely $72m to raise against. Would a $30m discounted raise / 50% dilution get them back in the game? I suppose only if timings worked out and then they were able to raise far larger sums in the next bull market.

Not totally out of options but odds are massively stacked against them right now.

'How much electrolyte do you think invinity's 30 MWh battery project will need ? '

About 1.2 million litres of electrolyte I think. One project like that will more than cover BELCO's initial capacity - just 6 or 7 similar sized orders annually would consume all 8 million litres.