Member Info for HarChris

'Perhaps not so gloomy with Bitcoin increasing in value by 50%+ in this year.'

As difficulty is up almost 50% since the start of the year it almost completely cancels out the rise in bitcoin price - they will still be loss making and hence burning cash.

As of 31st Dec cash is $20m and debt is $76m and hence net debt of $56m. That will have got worse over the past 3 and a half months.

2023: Renewed Focus on Quebec

? Going forward, in the near term, Argo will be focusing on improving operational efficiency at its Quebec facilities by optimizing its mining fleet and utilizing excess capacity at these sites

300PH/s of hash improvement in the second half of the year - not good enough if you ask me, they are falling further and further behind with absolutely no strategy.

No one’s going to fall for scaremongering from an account named ‘shorteverything’, surely?!?!

These US tech earnings could just be the start of the next bull run, right?

I'll happily do it for you beginerman. Whilst it's difficult to estimate with precise accuracy, as you've asked...

Dec 31st ~$10m, Mar 31st ~ $19m

That figure should be the right side of $30m come November CLN due date so < $10m shortfall although impossible to predict V prices and Dollar/Rand and production levels between now and then.

Call it $30m cash - restructure debt with a new $20m loan/CLN, pay off the $40m giving $20m debt reduction, $10m cash and all remaining debt shifted to the long term.

Hope that helps.

Rabbit out of the hat you say, what about the selling of Lemur to pay off the CLN? Now wouldn't that be a positive surprise?
Compare the titles from last year to this:

Q1 2022 Operational Update

Q1 2023 Operational Update, Vametco Mineral Reserve and Resource and Lemur Mineral Resource.

Ruminating all day over a share you claim to have a mere passing interest in?! You are a walking talking contradiction aren't you Goaty!

I said numerous times and to numerous people that that 20% was also based on vanadium prices pointing up into news / holding firm closer to $45/kgV. The trend in vanadium prices play a huge role in short term sentiment and sadly it's not been with us the last three or four weeks.

I do believe this update, whilst not a catalyst on its own, could prove to be in conjunction with any rebound in V prices over the coming weeks and months.

I'm happy to admit that I'm mightily disappointed that we didn't have the update that provided the catalyst for a sharp rebound today. I take comfort however in the knowledge that progress is being made and Bushveld are navigating successfully through what is the deepest energy crisis in South Africa's history. I take comfort that today proves that even up against that backdrop operational progress and profits can be made and are being made.

I still envisage the perfect storm of factors coming together here over the next 6-12 months that creates an explosive rebound that more than makes up for what has been a difficult period as a shareholder. And in such a market is there anywhere else I would rather have my money than Bushveld at 4p? No definitely not. So I'll sit back and wait for the gradual improvement of load shedding in SA (private generation, battery solutions, support from BRICS) and the growing supply tightness in the vanadium market that inevitably leads to higher V prices and profits that simply can't be ignored.

For those wondering why we didn't get a cash figure... comms responded essentially saying there's a new policy now, cash figure is given twice a year (interims and full year results) and not quarterly anymore.

Within 8 weeks the full year results will be released. We will definitely get a cash figure as of 31st December but also, looking at last year, will get a more up to date cash position too (March 31st).

Sure. A bit of time was given up to the Orion CLN where Fortune reiterated that discussions with Orion were ongoing and the market would be notified in due course, I think he said more detail on developments will be shared in the full year results before June is out.

The rest was largely focused on the improvement they are now seeing from the municipality agreement and operational stability at Vanchem and how he was confident that Vanchem will reach its 2500mtV+ production run rate in the not too distant future, highlighting the 141mtV produced in March and already 117mtV in April.

There was more in there but I was busy doing other stuff at the time so couldn't give it my full attention, will listen again at some point after its posted. Overall Fortune was upbeat and talked up the positive medium term future for BMN.

No, the point is the rest of us adults were quite content to avoid such hyperbolic speculation... you on the other hand went ahead and predicted it to be 'seriously red'.

For that reason you deserve to be called out.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see how things are looking just four months after the 'transformational' sale of Helios.

To be fair Cambridge Dictionary defines the word as 'able to produce a big change or improvement in a situation' - it doesn't have to be positive.

Ben we can quite easily work out the breakeven price (factoring in all that you've just listed) which is ~$34/kgV currently so whilst you're right that there are sizeable costs on top of the cash costs BMN are certainly on target to post a solid profit in 2023.

Selling of the inventory is pure cash on top.

Happy with this presentation so far.

Just to point out once again BMN DID NOT MISS GUIDANCE, they missed RBC's own estimates that were put out there in September 2022, not BMN's guidance.

RBC estimated higher production this year but much lower V prices hence their (slight) upgrade today.

‘Relatively risk free prior to this update’***

It wasn’t going to be worse than that imo and still the share price is flat / slightly up.

Who at this time at least has a better grasp of the share price action? Someone like me who argued that buying at 50p is basically risk free as all the bad news is already priced in (with a surprise to the upside still a possibility) or someone like PI100 who said today is going to be an absolute bloodbath?

I have the broker report so I know it was 6p. You can either trust me on that or carry on assuming after 50 pages of analysis they’ve come up with a base target of £6 (now £7) and an upside of £18!

It’s because you’ve got it wrong not them. As has been discussed on here on numerous occasions RBC set a base case of 6p and an upside scenario of 18p (based on ~$4/kgV higher prices) - all they’ve done is up that base case slightly to 7p.