Member Info for HarChris

Traders 'reading the charts' instead of sitting back and waiting for this to play out.

Production of 65000 ounces in 2022 to ~95000 ounces this year at such starkly improved margins should command *far* more than a 20% premium on last year's average trading price. I'll certainly be looking for >15p minimum with gold above $2K before I even think about slimming down my position.

This from the 2023 guidance in January:

'Annual scheduled maintenance to occur in Q2 2023 for Vametco and Q3 2023 for Vanchem.'

This from the Q1 update:

'Annual 30-day planned maintenance shutdown is now expected during Q3 2023, previously Q2 2023 due to increased confidence in the Kiln's current performance levels. '
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Despite your Mr Know It All act you really can't even be bothered to read the RNS's. So painfully ignorant.

It also pushes the full maintenance at Vametco back a quarter which has positive medium term implications.

Although we’re always ‘one quarter away from the catalyst’ this one feels the closest yet to having definitely turned a corner, especially after Fortune threw us a rare bone by giving the April month-to-date figures.

Would be particularly impactful if we start to see V prices back on the rise next week once the Chinese holiday is over.

There’s a huge disconnect now between what is perceived to be happening and the reality, and to be honest that falls at the feet of Fortune.

Take the Q1 update which I posted about the other day. The headline showed that production was slightly less than the previous year (not so good) but after realising that it included three weeks of maintenance across the two plants and other (unmanageable) issues like heavy rainfall disruption it was clear how good it was. Especially given the improvement at Vanchem through March and April.

Did the update stress that? No not really? Was there a bit more focus on it in the webinar? Yeah a bit but how many actually listen to the dial in calls? I know BMN are seeing higher prices to Europe, both FeV and V205. Did he stress this important point? No.

The good news is we’re close to the point where even the headline figures should be striking enough to wake up the market, we’re not too far off seeing the higher than expected sales show through in the interims but we are kinda relying on getting to that point for a sentiment shift to occur here.

The fact that we won’t need to raise equity any time soon at least means that once this sorry period is over it won’t have made a difference, for those that held on, but by joe is it a tedious wait.

We should remind ourselves that many on here questioned Bushveld's ability to cope operationally under an increasingly worsening energy crisis and yet BMN still reached record production in 2022 and will almost certainly beat that by some margin this year.

We should remind ourselves that the CLN is the biggest weight on the share price right now yet Fortune pulled off a big funding package in November 2020 with V at rock bottom and covid raging with uncertainty over when the world would return to some sort of normality. The risk now is nothing like what it was through 2020.

And we should learn not to respond directly to anyone who spends their days goading others on here for nothing more than their own weird pleasure.

Not true, the majority of trolls only arrive when they smell blood, they very rarely predict outcomes before they happen.

They also have a perpetual negative bias that will never shift no matter what happens. If the share price goes to 5p, 7p, 10p, 15p, 25, whatever they'll either be gone or screaming pump and dump or 'the fall's going to be epic!' etc so they aren't half as 'balanced' as they think they are.

AIM is frustratingly often like this. Long periods of share price decline before very sharp recoveries or vice versa, something that's less common on the main markets which sees more mild peaks and troughs, hence 'higher risk higher reward'.

This is a fairly rare case of fundamentals improving but poor and predictable communications which has led to a share price that's divorced from reality - the poor share price performance leads to risks being magnified (SA, CLN, very real risks but one's that are being managed) and investors become doubtful that management has what it takes.

At this stage everything has to be seen to be believed. Profit has to be right there in black and white, the debt has to be paid off or any restructure signed, sealed, and delivered etc and in the meantime the share price has the potential to reach extreme levels, like it is now.

Still yet to compile a post about BMN rather than about posters on the bb but fair enough for pointing out the grammatical progress.

'And that's what everyone said last month and the month before that and the year before that and the year before that.'

Sure but it wouldn't hurt to accept that this time we've at least been given almost the first month of the next quarter's Vanchem production figure so there is *MORE* reason to be confident that the next update will be the best yet.

Not guaranteed but certainly improves the odds.

'if vanchem has done 117mtv in 24 days of april that could mean q2 is over 440mtv so a decent uplift from q1. unless my math is wrong?'

That's what you get when extrapolating the first 24 days to the rest of the quarter. Of course average daily production might change over the following 9 weeks but what we can safely say is that Vanchem's production for the quarter will dwarf the previous year's production of just 191mtV.

Significant operational progress is being made.

Do make it clear you're referring to Lemur here not Vametco.

I think we can safely say Lemur isn't priced into the current valuation so won't be a big deal if they fail to sell the assets. Although having said that current market cap is exactly what they bought Duferco for so you could argue that all the investment and stability upgrades at Vanchem aren't being priced in, not to mention the entirety of Vametco, nor BELCO, nor Cellcube minority ownership.

It’s likely that the reported European V price is not the one BMN are seeing, a number of sources have spoken of a two tiered market now with a premium for any V that has no link back to Russia.

Could well be the reason for what looks like a fairly sharp fall in V prices (+ Russian V diverted to China).

I complete agree with your first post Lamps but your second one is exactly the thing that's best avoided, directly engaging with an intentionally goading comment.

Happy to engage with CC when there's a dialogue to be had, eventually he always switches from Mr Know It All to full blown troll.

I see no issue engaging with some of the points made but it is important not to get into a direct back and forth and let it take over the bb. And the complete childish idiots like the goat and all his alter egos just have to be totally ignored.

And what Q1 confirmed is that load shedding is having a minimal effect on operations now after the Emalahleni municipality agreement.

So whilst we’d obviously prefer to see the energy crisis resolved and SA and its people lifted up currently for BMN the cost benefits from the weakening rand are outweighing any production loss at Vanchem (March and April MTD figures show record monthly output).

No updates this week on AM due to the week long Labour Day holiday in China. Fast Markets shows prices as flat this week.

Will have to wait til next week I think to see if V has bottomed out.

I was responding to your point about revenues bottoming out, not share price. Wait for revenue to start ticking up before you judge whether the point I just made is valid.

Exactly that PI100. Momentum and trajectory is all important, the market takes kinder to lower revenues that are pointing in the right direction vs higher revenues pointing in the wrong direction.

As Yazz sang, the only way is up.

Missed my point. In response to a previous question I’m saying there’s every reason to believe Orion restructures whatever is left of the CLN on good terms, further the partnership (already long term partners due to PFA) - this then pushes all debt to the long term and gives BMN plenty of time to weather any fall in vanadium prices.

'Serious question, if the price of V reduces too much, how will that pan out for debt reduction? And is this the reason the s.p is falling due to potential problems of debt repayment.'

Orion agreed this financing in 2020 when V was below $24/kgV in Europe and with the VRFB sector a mere distant hope rather than reality. I'm fairly confident if Orion saw a future for BMN back then then they'll certainly be keen to partner up further to see what the next few years have in store.

'Indeed HarChris, that's what we're hanging our hats on - projections.'

I think the bigger risks come with all those companies planning massive projects that completely depend on vrfb growth. BMN thrives if it happens or demand from steel sector picks up but does just fine even if things stay as they are.