Member Info for HarChris

Well it's not a problem per se, they don't need that amount of money to continue with current operations, operations that should start to bring in tens of millions of profit per quarter now.

WK has the potential to transform Shanta into a completely different beast altogether if management see fit although that's down to many factors and under their control. To call it a problem is misleading.

This has always been survival of the fittest in its purest sense, fast forward a few years and we'll have four or five winners that are absolute behemoths with the rest having gone to the wall.

It is absolutely staggering that the share price is now lower than it was 14 months before the first ever mention of covid.

ValJu my opinion? Cowardliness, plain and simple.

It really depends on your own personal V outlook though Fara as that will in large part dictate future returns.

As someone that's very confident that the supply/demand dynamics of the vanadium market in the months and years ahead will lead to higher V prices (and possibly even a 2018/19 spike) this financing deal guarantees getting to that point in time in one piece, in a healthy position and perfectly placed to see rapid share price appreciation that blows all these price targets out of the water.

You’re swinging from one theory to another - why not just wait a bit longer and see how this plays out? Any responses to your questions will just be personal guesses and speculation.

It’s only been a few days since the refinancing.

Yes and what this deal says is (i) Orion want shares in BMN and (ii) they expect BMN to generate significant cash going forward.

You don't commit this much more to a company that you doubt has a very bright future.

I've not seen you state that you think novacyt are going to lose the dispute with the DHSC and if they don't there isn't a chance that a company with £100m cash and £0 debt go under. It's the very dictionary definition of financially solvent.

If they can't do anything with it eventually they just get bought out for the cash for something like £1.20 to private equity.

One more thing that really is striking:

In this extremely difficult economic climate, with liquidity on AIM at all time lows, based in a nation that is going through the worst energy crisis in their history, being in a position of strength as they were owed tens of millions that Bushveld could not generate themselves right now...

Orion took shares at 50% higher than the market price.

A few thousand tonnes less v205 production is the equivalent to a 230MWh vrfb being installed Ex China. They also sold 750t v205 of their inventory in Q1 so less V to hit the market later this year - all adds to deficit pressure that'll continue to build.

'The Company has adjusted its annual 2023 V2O5 equivalent production guidance to 9,000 – 11,000 tonnes'

The bottom of that range is equivalent to just 5040mtV - I said a few days ago that Largo's production had dropped from 83% greater than BMN's in 2021 to just 51% in 2022... we could easily be talking just 30% greater than ours this year ( and that's at their midrange, take the bottom of that range and it's less than 20%.)

You weren't right, you've just positioned yourself to feel okay whatever happens now. By holding your shares you're actually saying you think, on balance, you're better off being in than out but at the same time you're also predicting doom and gloom here and if that happens you can at least feel like you've got something to boast about on here. You're basically picking heads AND tails.

If you go to the races, bet on horse 5 but say midway through oh I think 2, 3 or 6 is actually going to win and then 2, 3 or 6 does win you might claim to have called it but you haven't.

It's like predicting you're going to fall down the stairs and then falling down the stairs... you don't get to pat yourself on the back for predicting your own downfall.

Yeah I'm pretty much saying that all north american miners, all miners with a substantial HODL, all miners that are fully funded, any miner with zero risk of going under etc, will rise with bitcoin.

So most of them basically.

You are going to lose a lot of money (/at least miss out on gains) if you assume all miners are going to rise in tandem with bitcoin.

Good CPI print once again, it's now a tussle between the falling inflation and recession narrative. With the strength of earnings in recent weeks I still expect the falling inflation narrative to win out.

The vast majority of the stockpile costs have already been sunk, they make up some of the cash burn in 2021 and a large part of the reason BMN won’t have turned a profit in 2022.

It’s now, essentially, pure cash when sold (and even greater cash generation if converted into electrolyte and sold)

It's a potential left field event but not something I'm placing any weight on currently (Lemur that is).

For me the healthy cash position and the considerable stockpile insulates BMN against any worst case near term V slide scenario whilst ensuring they are able to meet all medium term loan repayments and on the other side of the coin allows them to significantly reduce their debt position and minimise dilution if V price goes the other way (and electrolyte sales start turbo-charging profits).

And anything in between should be just fine for shareholders.

What I found most interesting is the clause included that allows BMN to pay off the entirety of the $27m three year secured loan before June 2024 for just a 4% fee. Is this a recognition of the potential for V to spike over the next 12 months somewhat akin to what happened in 2018/19? To include this option makes me think so.

It's also worth paying attention to the details in the CLN. Bushveld have a one time right in June 2026 to redeem 50% and to convert the other 50%. This would reduce the total eventual dilution from this refinancing by 35%, a reduction of ~85 million shares and mean only $11.25m rather than $18m is converted into shares.

There are other details in the deal too that point to Orion's recognition that significant cash generation is possible in the near future.

Interesting. I wonder if the recent sales drive was in part to bolster the cash position in order to strengthen their hand with restructuring talks on going? I imagine it's also a sign that the BOD are confident that they'll be producing at 5000mtV by next year and so don't need to be keeping such a big stockpile to convert into electrolyte.

So what you are saying is you knew how this was going to play out and your prediction that Orion would take a majority controlling interest for the price of the CLN was just scaremongering for your own benefit... OR it wasn't obvious?

Which is it?