Member Info for HarChris

Whilst I don't agree with this theory one could argue that all the refinancing has done is vastly minimise the short-medium term (

Whilst I don't agree with this theory one could argue that all the refinancing has done is vastly minimise the short-medium term (

If you compare the amount raised between Argo and the other miners it would largely explain the difference in fortunes. Up until mid 2022 they were all on some sort of a par but whilst the N.American miners continued to raise huge amounts of cash (the majority of which came via ATM offerings) Argo's dried up. In over a year Argo have only managed to raise funding from selling their assets, first brand new machines and then Helios.

If that's not the opposite of a growth stock I'm not sure what is!

Of course not, if there's one thing we know about Shishir it's that he'll be sharing that Q1 update as soon as he possibly can and will be shouting the figures from the rooftops to whoever will have him on for an interview.

I expect we hear early July next on that front.

Hey PI, fair enough, different opinions make a market!

404x I wouldn't look at it quite like that. What evidently happened was a crash to 2/3p when there were doubts over Argo's continued existence at the back end of 2022. Peter was attempting to raise enough cash to pay down the debt and remain on track with their growth strategy (somewhat) but after the fundraising fell through in October they were left with no choice but to sell Helios at a discounted price.

What followed was an extended 'not going out of business' sentiment rally but rationality has since kicked in and Argo are probably not far off being in more or less the exact same position as in 2022 but WITHOUT Helios! A little less debt, sure, but no Helios and back to potentially needing a cash call.

We wait to see the financials to find out how true the above is but if it is the case (

The market moves well before the economy hence the position we find ourselves in today across the small cap space. It’s not as if the major sell off has happened by chance and now those left in are just finding out about a looming recession, it’s been slowly being priced in for a year.

Like with covid the main indices started crashing as news came out of China about an unknown virus before the bottom being reached just before we went into lockdown here in the UK.

B2 great post and no this has absolutely nothing to do with free speech.

Whilst I’m in the camp that laughs at the idea of PI100 being a paid troll the constant moaning and somewhat pleasure he/she gets from being disruptive is plain for all to see, even if it’s just a bored teenager sat in their pants in their bedroom.

I’ve gone ahead and filtered and won’t go back on that. If one or two of you that can’t stop yourself from replying do the same it will make this bb a much more useful forum for everyone.

PI, did you pile in first thing?

Many reasons to be confident that the energy crisis is going to get better soon and not only that, it'll jumpstart the energy transition in SA as well as private energy generation - could that be any better for BMN?

SA has a tough winter ahead before things get better but it shouldn't affect Bushveld all that much and additionally BMN are using that period to undertake maintenance at both plants.

It's not as I pointed out that it'll be bottoming out lower this year. I included revenues to show that it's no argument for why, currently, 83 English pounds are being valued at 7 English pounds.

I've never seen this sort of thing before and it suggests a combination of the market expecting novacyt to lose the dispute (in its entirety) with a >50% chance plus a cash burn for the next five years. In reality it's just priced stupidly because of sentiment being as low as it's possible to get and no clear sign of a turning point catalyst.

Just to remind you Hippy yesterday you started this discussion off with 'here's my uneducated take' yet a few posts later you're becoming an expert.

Nah that doesn’t justify it unless the probability of losing the dispute in its entirety was well above 50% (no one thinks that). When making the comparison you have to factor in the possibility of an even greater cash position after the outcome (or out of court settlement) too.

Could repay the DHSC £60m and would still be in a far healthier position than GDR.

‘Fast Markets showed the first uptick in price on Friday since early March so although too soon to say for sure it's a tentative sign that we're at/around the bottom here.’

______________________

Just as night follows day Asian Metals follows Fast Markets… let’s hope this is the start of the rebound:

https://www.asianmetal.com/Vanadium/

They would certainly have been burning through cash from Jan 1st - mid March with BTC averaging $21k throughout the first eleven weeks of the year, it's then a question of whether they are still burning through cash at the $28K average we've seen since - I think we all agree that the cash figure right now is lower than $20m, just how much lower is what the market needs to know.

Argo have't been buying machines because running out of cash is curtains for them now.

And with it almost the entire Ex China/ Ex Russia Vanadium supply.

Even in the very unlikely event that South Africa were sanctioned vanadium would be exempt.

As things stand Bushveld are seeing major cost reductions because of instability in SA and the weakening of the Rand. Quite obviously Russia are leaning on South Africa and trying to cause conflict knowing full well the ANC's historic ties to the Soviet Union but also the economic necessity to remain trading with the US and Europe. We saw this a few months ago when the ANC strongly hinted that Putin would be arrested if he visits South Africa and Russia responded by saying it would be a declaration of war.

With Russia an ever weaker economic power and fast becoming a global pariah it's very hard to see anything but a continuation of South Africa's neutral stance over the Ukraine-Russia war and a promise not to repeat the offence (if found to be true) but obviously it won't help sentiment til it all blows over.

I did wonder what was in it for Galaxy collateralising the debt against a load of knackered machines, makes a bit more sense and at least adds a bit of value to the balance sheet. The main thrust of my point still remains though... the goal was to not only survive the bear market but to build/HODL so as to thrive on the flipside. Argo totally screwed that up and now it's simply a question of whether they will exist at all when that next bull market comes around.

Sorry did I say £32m mcap? It's closed today at ~£29m.

The £83m cash difference adds £7m to our mcap.

The once quarterly check in:

GDR - revenue £20K, cash £4m, debt £0, mcap £22m

NCYT - revenue £21m, cash £87m, debt £0, mcap £32m

Yes we don't deserve much of a premium on our cash position at this point in time and revenue will likely bottom out lower this year than last but it's hard to look at those numbers and think it's anything but illogical.