Member Info for HarChris

'I've no idea really, just speculating.'

This should be your epitaph!

Got to squeeze all the juice out of the Argo lemon before the scavengers come and feast over the remains!

If that were to happen re PE takeover I would be calling them unscrupulous and corrupt but I don’t accuse and speculate over such things unless it’s proven, unlike you.

An unscrupulous board would be scheming ways to move that £85m+ cash from the balance sheet into their own pockets , I’ve seen no evidence of that. The lack of performance cost the last CEO his job relatively quickly, there is nothing unscrupulous about any of this.

Incompetency sure, lack of work ethic? Maybe but the board themselves are benefiting in no way financially from their performance vs the returns (and pay increases) they would see if they turn this around.

Let's not forget Alex that BMN managed record production last year despite load shedding and are expected to well and truly beat that again this year and return to profitability. Load shedding has little to no effect to Vametco's operations and now minimal effect at Vanchem to the new agreement in place with the municipality.

Serious and major issue for SA, less so for Bushveld and in a perverse irony might actually be seeing a net benefit due to the weakening rand and hence lowering of costs.

This is going to significantly improve the medium term financials for BMN but I'm sure in the very near term it will spook investors into thinking the shenanigans in SA is worse for Bushveld than it is.

Genuine question - is Capa a psychopath? If he keeps coming back in different guises but cannot resist linking each name, however subtly, to cycling, that would strike me as some very odd, pathological game he thinks he's playing with everyone?

Just so strange.

BMN generated significant cash through Q1 and are still just about in profitability territory with rather depressed V prices that'll rise back up sharply in time.

Yes it is cheap and we'll look back at some point when profits are above $50m a year and realise just how much so.

'SnakesandBadgers' you signed up literally today, post on the same two to three shares as another poster on here that keeps making accounts and you talk like you've been here two decades.

We're not idiots.

You know a lot of the recent loss was large LTIP payments as well as cost-cutting exercises that are now complete. There is every reason to suggest novacyt can make a small, modest profit on low revenues and there's certainly no heavy cash burn so besides losing the dispute they are funded for decades (hypothetically speaking).

Nah I won't have it that novacyt in 2018 with just over £1m cash and a lot of debt (which was very difficult to service) was a better investment and hence worth more money than novacyt today with £87m and £0 debt. The only way that's true is if there's a 98%+ chance the DHSC wins the dispute in full.

It's also fair to assume the valuation was toppy at the time but there's no intellectual argument to be for novacyt being worth more in late 2018 than today.

Terry's last three posts on here:

'A wonderful cash burning company!9 May 2023 10:27

Until it can grow cash it’ll never do anything but dilute. You will be waiting a very long time here'

'Cash burn story10 May 2023 07:48

Until it’s not.'

'Myles will exit like he did after Avacta note at 160p10 May 2023 19:56

Look what happened, ramped everyone In saying 200p+ then look what happened… it’s nosedived. He’s confessed he’s a trader and will be out of TGR like he traded out of Avacta. Don’t get spiked or caught up by all the ramping.'

______________________________

Appreciate your deep insight but I think i'll continue to take what I can from Myles' research instead of yours, thanks.

'The vanadium shortage, growth narrative is now akin to the boy crying wolf'

I agree with the rest of your post but less this. I'm not doing what mindless rampers do and looking back and assuming a price spike is inevitable because it's happened before, we are seeing vrfb growth happening at pace now, we are seeing electrolyte plants springing up all over the place and at scale and yet there is minimal to no matching production appearing to come online anytime soon. Largo struggling to grow their production, Glencore the only other current primary producer is not very focused on vanadium, China moves synergistically with steel demand, Russia has its own problems etc etc other factors too although i've made the case before in more detail.

But yeah my post wasn't directly relevant to your own and it's quite evident by the share price action to be the case. At least there must have been significant offloading to see the massive volume of the past week and yet be up a mere 10% or so.

Well it's not a problem per se, they don't need that amount of money to continue with current operations, operations that should start to bring in tens of millions of profit per quarter now.

WK has the potential to transform Shanta into a completely different beast altogether if management see fit although that's down to many factors and under their control. To call it a problem is misleading.

This has always been survival of the fittest in its purest sense, fast forward a few years and we'll have four or five winners that are absolute behemoths with the rest having gone to the wall.

It is absolutely staggering that the share price is now lower than it was 14 months before the first ever mention of covid.

ValJu my opinion? Cowardliness, plain and simple.

It really depends on your own personal V outlook though Fara as that will in large part dictate future returns.

As someone that's very confident that the supply/demand dynamics of the vanadium market in the months and years ahead will lead to higher V prices (and possibly even a 2018/19 spike) this financing deal guarantees getting to that point in time in one piece, in a healthy position and perfectly placed to see rapid share price appreciation that blows all these price targets out of the water.

You’re swinging from one theory to another - why not just wait a bit longer and see how this plays out? Any responses to your questions will just be personal guesses and speculation.

It’s only been a few days since the refinancing.

Yes and what this deal says is (i) Orion want shares in BMN and (ii) they expect BMN to generate significant cash going forward.

You don't commit this much more to a company that you doubt has a very bright future.