Member Info for HarChris

What happens if the resolutions are blocked, such as those regarding remuneration ?

So after arguing for months that Orion have BMN over a barrel they eventually agreed on 6p for the subscription shares. You obviously don't think Orion are a charity and so logically must come to the conclusion that Orion sees value well above that and compromised at 6p.

What do you know that the experts in mining don't?

Just as I clicked send I knew you'd single out that line in a reply.

Ignore the electrolyte plant altogether if you want and the post still stands. BMN are as close to being derisked as you could realistically ask from a small cap miner.

Well of course but the commodity price is the biggest risk for any miner. If you want completely derisked then you'll have to look beyond the stock market, especially small caps!

In the recent video Fortune stated that the Vanchem run rate should reach 2500mtV before the year is out. That is without any further capex and means, taking this year's total costs and allowing for material inflation BMN should be a 5000mtV+ producer next year that is profitable all the way down to about $32/kgV (at a Rand of 17, could end up much lower). The US price, where the majority of BMN sales go, hasn't been near that price in years.

Add in the healthy cash position and the improved margins we'll start seeing from electrolyte sales and that would make BMN just about as derisked as it gets.

Others might have said BMN could pay it off in cold hard cash, I said in March with V above $40/kgV average across our markets that if profit margins stay here through the rest of the year BMN will generate enough cash to pay Orion in full if they wanted (never argued they would go that route, just that it strengthens their hand for a renegotiation). I also said that if they sell enough of the inventory they'd also have the cash equivalent, which is true.

I believe BMN are sitting on at least $20m cash now and probably $25m. We've got to remember that negotiations will have been taking place as V was falling and Fortune is a cautious CEO so the refinancing is a safety first measure... keep a substantial cash position to insulate against the worst case short term scenarios, build clauses into the contract that allow for paying down debt early and minimising CLN dilution if the better case scenarios play out.

400%+ growth in VRFB installations from 2021 to 2022, you can call it hype if you want but the data doesn't lie.

I agree about the vanadium price being the biggest driver but it was high enough to return BMN to profitability in Q1 and is still high enough to just about see profit/cash generation in Q2.

AM (the site you use Cindercone) has shown a flattening of prices last week and so far this week the Chinese prices are rising. So significant cash generation in Q1, modest cash generation in Q2 (albeit supported by weak rand) and hopefully we'll be back to Q1 prices through the rest of the year. Against such depressed steel demand that's really not all that bad.

You yourself stated that 'this is derisked as long as V prices stop plummeting', so you must be optimistic at last.

With how social media savvy he was you can be damn sure he discovered what investors were now calling him, Pinocchio Pete.

That will have stung!

With the rand as weak as it is we could well be looking at BE price close to $30/kgV now, V simply returning to the highs of two months ago would give a NET margin of more than $10/kgV.

That would give profit close to the current market cap extrapolated out across a year... mad when you factor in how much the downside risk has reduced on top following the refinancing news.

I'm sure you'll also agree that if they initiated a $200m ATM last year with the share price 60p+ they also wouldn't be in this mess? We just disagree about which is the most important factor... for me with adequate funding they could have addressed the operational issues.

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Shares in issue November 2021 - 468,082,335

Shares in issue today, 18 months later - 473,930, 000

The thing is Peter came out in 2022 (or was it late 2021?) promising shareholders they would not be diluted and that debt was the route they would be going from here on out where possible just as the market turned and the North American miners begun initiating At the Market offerings - so in a sense on the biggest factor in Argo's demise Peter 100% delivered what he promised!

FAR now aiming for Q4 2025 for phase one of their plant to come online

Evraz targeting completion of a new plant for Q2 2025.

Australian Vanadium pushing back production to Q4 2025, possibly 2026.

Neometal's JV Vanadium recovery project unlikely now to meet Q4 2024 target.

Largo downgrading 2023 production significantly

China's production moves in step with steel demand and iron production, no increases expected.

Two years without any meaningful new production whilst the vanadium redox flow battery sector continues to mature... add the dollar/rand exchange into the mix bringing BMN's costs down even further and what we have is all the ingredients for an explosive two years of cash generation.

All eyes on the vanadium price in the weeks and months ahead.

Delivery dates and price agreed are two different things, with a lead time of 5-6 weeks BMN should be seeing the higher prices of early to mid April for these sales. Not the peak mid March prices but not miles off either.

Fortune probably wants to bring down that net debt figure by converting some of the stockpile (aim of ~200mtV this year) into cash. In a high interest rate, risk off environment that sort of metric is an important one when making investing decision - the inventory may show up in current assets on the balance sheet but it isn't the same as having liquidity on hand.

Sell another 100mtV or so and on top of the small reduction in debt from the refinancing and cash generation through 2023 we could well be looking at a net debt figure in June 2023 interims of $50m, down from $76m, with 600mtV of stock remaining.

That's strong progress when you also consider that the entirety of the debt has shifted to the long term too.

Who's to say this is the inventory being sold off? We could be looking at a record quarter of 1200mtV in Q2 (maintenance all being Q3), that could mean as much as 600mtV going stateside.

Yeah I agree but what I meant by that is the current price, in a normal rational environment, would suggest that the market is expecting novacyt to lose the dispute but this isn't a normal rational environment, this is very much a risk off all small caps environment at the moment. In this market you earn any increases in share price, they aren't a given and you certainly won't see share price appreciation unless there's something to motivate investors to move their money from one beaten up share to yours.

A rational market hedging its bets would be closer to a pound a share imo, basically around the net cash figure.

Whilst I don't agree with this theory one could argue that all the refinancing has done is vastly minimise the short-medium term risk, what it hasn't done is reduce the total debt, much. What we need to see for that is continued cash generation and profits being made.

We know that Q1 was highly profitable but that those margins have fallen through late April into May to a level that should still be cash generative but much closer to break even (and relying on the weakening Rand). The good news is that there are signs that V is bottoming out, at ~$32.5/kgV in China and Europe and ~$38/kgV in the US - if so a reversal starting at this level will see significant margins again soon.

As enraging as the share price is it should be much easier now to sit and wait for what is the most anticipated news flow since I've been invested in BMN (full year results, BELCO operational, BELCO offtakes, Q2 update, mini grid connected, BE Carve out, interims) all within four months... we could now see all this coincide with a rebound in V and with wider market conditions starting to improve (and with it the flow of money back into small cap AIM stocks).

Historically this share has always done its moves in one fell swoop, in one mad cycle, are we about to see that again in 2023?

It's a less than sign! That is so odd.

I'll try one last time and then move on if it doesn't work to avoid spamming the board:

Whilst I don't agree with this theory one could argue that all the refinancing has done is vastly minimise the short-medium term (

This is why I'm still about on here, to work out if there's a high risk / high reward trade to be had and at what price.

The thing is though AB, sorry CLSKB!, Argo drained their resources through 2022 and were forced to sell Helios, if they drain their finances again before said bull run they are more or less finished. Do you agree on that point?

The questions then become at what price are Argo cash flow break even and if as expected it's higher than the current price how long can they survive and when do you expect the next bull run to start?

The risk of going to zero has ratcheted up a notch without doubt now so it's hard to see value still at this price for a high risk trade.

Well in my opinion if you can't compete with the big miners but have already racked up a considerable amount of debt you'll never be able to pay it off and will therefore eventually go under.

It appears there's a problem with my account, I can't post a message longer than what you see below! How strange.