Member Info for HarChris

That's certainly not confirmed Will, it's what the US are claiming took place on (I believe) one occasion last year. We're at slap on the wrist territory at the moment unless the ANC put their past allegiance with Russia above the economic survival of their nation... not going to happen.

South Africa are not supporting Russia in the war, they are not one of the six nations (like Belarus, Syria, North Korea, Eritrea) that vote with Russia but they are one of the 30 odd nations that have abstained, like a lot of the African continent. Not a major risk to this investment imo but certainly a factor that affects short term sentiment.

I suppose if you're saying most of that 1EH/s from two years ago has subsequently gone offline and every machine installed at Helios is brand new then it would make the majority of them just the one year old (Helios energised early May 2022) - if so fair enough, wrong to call their fleet 'knackered'.

Is that definitely the case flowerpot? I went back to work it out and I found that two years ago Argo had roughly 1EH/s online and now they have roughly 1.75EH/s so that means the majority of the machines have been running for more than two years, right?

This is a sector with low barriers to entry that relies on heavy investment and successful execution. The chance for that has now come and gone. Argo as of 31st Dec had $20m cash and $76m debt and for that $56m net debt have around 1.7EH/s online of aging machines, with by my estimation the majority being over two years old and the machines in the Canadian data centres (their only owned facilities) far older than that.

If you were a high net worth individual and the company came to you for $10m what reason would there be to invest in this environment? All you'd be doing is keeping the lights on for another few months.

We're waiting to see the latest numbers but if the cash burn is still high and that cash figure has depleted considerably in the past three months then they are doing nothing more than holding on for dear life in the hope for a dramatic change in bitcoin's fortunes.

With minimal capex and Singida online we're now looking at around 25000 ounces mined for Q2 with a gold price averaging more than $2000/Oz - the next update will give us Singida guidance and a group AISC but if we're looking at 25000 ounces per quarter at an AISC around $1250/Oz then they are absolutely printing money now. As long as gold remains strong it's simply a matter of being patient and waiting for the cash to crystallise.

And if this doubling of Singida for just $5m (what Shanta should be easily making this quarter alone) comes to fruition then the investment case here grows ever stronger, and that's before West Kenya even enters the picture.

'Conviction, hows that working out for you. People invest in shares to make money nothing more nothing less.'

I have an average of 9.5p, I am continuing to add where I can. Have I made money from Bushveld as of yet? No. Will I make more money than you given a few more years? I believe so.

These types have absolutely no conviction whatsoever and have their mind changed the moment the share price moves in either direction.

When everything comes together and this really turns those lacking conviction will start reducing before it even reaches 6p and will be out at 7p and will suddenly start feeling a lot less smug than they do now.

Fast Markets showed the first uptick in price on Friday since early March so although too soon to say for sure it's a tentative sign that we're at/around the bottom here.

Must proofread before sending - 'banking the drum' sounds too close to being a euphemism!

As frustrating as it is sometimes you have to accept that wider market sentiment will win out in the short term unless there's such a compelling case to buy at that time (think March 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, the stock market tanked but V rallied and BMN rallied). I'd be majorly concerned if all around us AIM miners were hitting new highs, rising off positive news flow etc but the opposite is true, all around us small caps are reaching major inflection points, growing at pace, doing everything asked of them and still find themselves 50%, 60% sometimes 80% off 2021 highs!

The building blocks are in place here, BMN have reached the stage where they are generating cash even with V bottoming out and they are charging head first into a number of key milestones of their own (BELCO operational, mini grid connected, BE carve out) in an extremely auspicious looking vanadium environment.

I'll keep banking the drum all the while operational progress and outlook remains so positive.

Good point Marc. You’ll find there’s far more share price predictions coming from the negative accounts rather than the positive ones and at least the latter ones are backed up with some fundamental analysis attached (even if it means jack s*** in the current climate).

The next 6000 tonnes should come online before the year is out but plenty of news in the meantime.

I'm waiting to see those Q1 numbers at some point in July... successfully meeting the 6100-6500 tonnes target, eclipsing the entirety of the previous year, will cause a stir and wake up the market imo.

I'd then expect some sort of debt package to be agreed to start looking building towards the 80K target by the end of next year.

It's certainly interesting to go back to the IPO in late 2017 (the AIM admission document is online for those interested in going back and comparing in detail from then to today). Before the IPO Novacyt were a fairly similar, but smaller, company to what they are now in many respects. There was Primer Design, NOVAprep and Lab21 (which included Microgen) back then and the main changes since are that NOVAprep was sold in 2019, Lab21 was wound down and then in addition significant funding has been used for R&D to develop Promate, Winterplex and a plethora of other assays as well as the purchase of IT IS for ~£10m (+additional cash to directors).

Prior to the IPO Novacyt had €2.6million in cash and total debt of €5.4m. They then went on to raise €9.7m at IPO @ 59.38p a share giving them a market cap of $25m / £22.4m. Yet despite this cash injection they finished the year just two months later with a measly $4.3m cash - $1.8m went on AIM listing fees, a $1.5m milestone payment relating to Primerdesign and the rest was spent servicing/reducing debt.

So the similarity in market cap from IPO to today is even more stark when you realise the moment they were able to raise any money previously it was immediately out of the door servicing fees and debt. The most recent £87m cash figure comes after spending tens of millions on developing in house products through R&D, tens of millions to past directors in LTIP payments, and a £10m+ acquisition whilst now having absolutely no debt to service.

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Despite the poor revenue figures over the past eighteen months and the seeming lack of fight from the BOD the current valuation is still utterly nuts.

There are very few that questioned Bushveld's ability to become a cash cow in the years ahead, what they have questioned is in what state they might be in when that time comes 6 months, 12 months or 18 months down the road. What the refinancing has done has answered that question - to guarantee BMN get to that point in time as a 5000mtV+ producer and 200MWh electrolyte producer Orion takes at most 13.7% ownership of the company and likely just under 9% if BMN have the cash to redeem 50% of the CLN.

To put all cash flow problems to bed for the foreseeable future that really is not a bad price to pay.

Fortune stated in the interview this week that Vanchem should reach its 2500mtV run rate at the back end of 2023. Vametco produced 2705mtV in 2022 which means at this point in time Fortune believes BMN can reach the midpoint of the 5000-5400mtV run rate that they've been targeting. There is no additional capex to get there so if achieved next year we may well be looking at 5200mtV production at a break even price of ~$31/kgV (and that's with 17Rand)

With current market cap at just $64m all we would need to is V averaging similar to what it did in Q1 2023 throughout 2024 to see profit before tax come very close to today's market cap and the very possible $45-$50 level would see NET profit at/higher than today's $64m valuation.

By no means am I predicting net profits to exceed $65m next year but it highlights how little imagination one needs to achieve something that is nigh impossible for the vast majority of listed companies. If that's not undervalued from a fundamental basis then I don't know what is.

Completely agree, best post I've seen on here in a long term.

One thing I'd like to add about primary vanadium production... it's not 25% of global supply, it's actually half that (~12.5%) and of the three primary producers (Largo, Glencore, BMN) only Bushveld is seeing production actually grow. Largo is having all sorts of problems despite having the cash to grow so even primary production will remain flat in the short term if the vanadium price spikes.

We are likely to see some new primary production in the years ahead coming out of Australia (Technology Metals for example) but that's some years off and we're still talking a fraction of what is needed to match the expected increase in demand over the rest of this decade.

It is perfectly logical and reasonable to have a bias towards a company on that company's own BB.

If somebody believes a competitor is a better investment then I would expect them to stick to that competitor's BB to promote that company and if they were to criticise or flag any issues with Harl in the process in order to make that case then that's also perfectly reasonable.

You can sit there and believe that a couple of random accounts and some CEO ramping manifested a 100 plus times return.

Or you can be sensible and recognise that in the middle of the worst pandemic in decades novacyt were winning massive contracts and generating cash and profit hand over fist with a contract worth potentially as much as £700m in September 2020 being the one that tipped sentiment to fever pitch and created the environment for the all time high.

A classic Saturday morning game of good cop bad cop.

'Following btc'

Not sure it is. After the (somewhat nonsensical) initial sentiment spike following Helios sale the Argo share price settled at around 12-15p through February and March with bitcoin in a ~ $21.5k-$24k range.

Bitcoin then did a steady 20%+ from mid March onwards and the Argo share price did nothing but continue its downtrend.