Member Info for HarChris

I’d argue that AIM is a major reason for the share price… is a US listing a silver bullet? Obviously not but I feel confident that this business making the progress it has over the past few years and being fully listed on Nasdaq would have seen major risk-loving US institutions take it forward already.

Just because a few AIM companies who went on to acquire dual listing via the ADS route ended up failing proves nothing besides the US not being a silver bullet (again it isn’t) but that’s not say that a company like Avacta has struggled because it’s on AIM - it has. This has been a long drawn out AIM bear market, there are what 600 listed on the exchange and I bet if I was to challenge you to find even a couple of pre- revenue companies to have seen share price appreciation over the past few years you’d be hard pressed (AI might quickly find you one or two and they probably have dual listing ). There are plenty of solid businesses on AIM but they almost all stand no chance against such a liquidity crisis. The fact that Avacta is still here in one piece with the investment case and possibility of double digit pounds share price in the future still alive is actually a sign that they’ve just about weathered the storm against the odds.

There comes a point when the exchange doesn’t matter (cash returning to AIM or TO) or matters less (news too headline grabbing to ignore) and hopefully we’re close enough to that now to be rewarded soon.

No-one is going to change your view on AV, there’s no way, you got burnt by Fortune (as did I) and you want to warn one and all about his former business partner in Anthony. Fair enough but ATM isn’t BMN nor has AV done anything reckless like FM did with the enormous debt burden they built up.

What you said though is only (very) partially true. ATM need the tin price to remain relatively high until they’ve increased scale / gained access to third party ore / integrated the lithium / gained clarity on the size and scale of Lithium Ridge.

It only takes one of the above to significantly derisk things.

@horsetrader2 has the brand name softened on you? Funnily enough I initially had the same reaction as you but it has softened on me. I asked a marketing friend of mine what she thought and she said it certainly ticks plenty of boxes:

- short and snappy

- Hard “k” sound in the middle (a plosive consonant) gives it punch.

- Made-up/invented word makes it unique with no built-in negative connotations + easier to trademark.

- possibly riffing off peek-a-boo ie playful

- two syllables, rolls off the tongue in one breath and is extremely common for brand names, think Lego, Apple, Google, ASOS, Boohoo, Temu, Tesco, Aldi, Lidl, Sony, Visa, PayPal, TikTok, Costa…

I think this is genuinely the first time since I’ve been invested where the share price can rise freely without any fear of a placing…

Well if it moves frictionless to a penny I wouldn’t begrudge Nick bolstering the balance sheet further but besides that!

It's incredibly challenging and rare for a small biotech with 30 odd staff to go it alone and essentially reach it to BP status. It would unlikely ever be in the best interests of shareholders as the time value of money is an important factor too and it certainly wouldn't be in the best interests of society at large, big pharma could rapidly fast track these drugs to market.

I'm sure if there was a possible exit in 12 or so months time that brought many multiples for investors most would take that - giving them the option to invest in the Avacta buyer, derisk their returns across many investments or for many, retire.

ECR price on the move which means this bb will go pretty quiet again soon, the usual suspects disappear when there's no fear to easily monger.

B2, one would hope that’s because there’s a deal/partnership being lined up for ava6000 around the time of 1B released mid year, involving some upfront cash, pushing runway well into 2027.

Coming back to a post yesterday I do think it's important to remember that as a multi-asset, multi-commodity mining business the way to value Andrada is not on potential tin at Uis profit but by the development of the business as a whole. Essentially the big returns will come from:

(i) development progress at Brandberg West

(ii) development progress at Lithium Ridge

(iii) positive progress towards integrating the high margin lithium into Uis operation

and (iv) all being funded through the tin operation at Uis, with group costs covered + additional cash for future debt repayment and therefore avoiding dilution.

A good post on telegram recently from a poster who had recent comms with the business explained how even just as a pre-concentrator the new jig plant should take quarterly production to 320t+ cont. tin per quarter. ~$10m revenue per quarter will see Andrada cover group-wide costs and deliver free cash flow... and at $48k should be generating over $15m revs. So that's a low P/E multiplier as it is, let alone the fact that Andrada should be valued based on growth across the wider group.

Exceptionally well placed at current tin price as we await progress news on all fronts and if a positive development surprises us re third party ore supply agreement we really are golden.

When it comes to the cashew each quarter last year included the statement 'On track to record maiden EBITDA positive result for 2025' until Q3 where it was dropped and now seems to no longer be the case - how does DKL ever overcome its debt burden if it can't make meaningful profit at projects?

Whether you’re happy or not to wait five more years is irrelevant, there’s no chance if the next 12 months is successful that Avacta stays independent much beyond that.

After some comments today I went back to my notes to see what were likely the reasons that I wasn't convinced in around 2023:

Likely overenthusiasm and hence possibly overvalued, after all still in phase 1a with only a few dozen human patients having been treated. No clear timeline for when 6000 p1a would complete, £50m debt a clear risk + a dilution risk if anything but stellar results continued. Certainly a lack of clear strategy and focus, after all why go down diagnostics route if sitting on a revolutionary cancer platform?

Fast forward today and it really is an objectively different picture. There's now a laser focus on therapeutics, the Avacta team have proven themselves to be highly skilled chemists capable of building a suite of exciting drugs each improving on the last, a far more mature clinical picture what with now being far through p1b in one drug and a p1a designed to avoid the delays we saw in 6000 (BOIN design, key hospital relationships now in place etc), crystal clear timelines and a debt position that no longer potentially threatens Avacta's existence (£20m left to be repaid at this stage is nothing like the risk of £50m in 2023).

The share price range in 2023 was 88p to 188p. It is hard to argue against the claim that right now offers up the mother of all opportunities for those able to add/build a position at 70p.

I agree with many of yours and others' criticisms but still think Alphamin is a useless comparator.

Anyway what is most relevant is whether Andrada is good value today or not. Arguably the value is better than ever because the lack of delivery on the core front (tin at Uis) has stalled the share price yet progress has and continues apace across the group and Andrada is likely profitable at the group-wide level of late and going forward for the very first time. Doubt and pessimism means so little is now priced in and that's what I prefer to highlight rather than voice my disappointment that more hasn't been made of the amazing tin environment over the past six months or so.

Alphamin has one of the highest grade tin mines on the planet at 3.2% compared with Uis' 0.14% , around 25X higher grade. Comparing like-for-like is meaningless.

We will make a huge return here at Andrada if they are able to sell Lithium Ridge to SQM, if they are able to develop the multicommodity (tungsten, tin, copper) Brandberg West and if they are able to leverage what Uis is, a huge polymetallic resource.

Andrada is unlikely to ever be seeing huge returns from the tin at Uis alone, as long as they are generating enough cash to cover group-wide costs and (ideally) modestly reducing debt along the way it allows for the rest of the business to develop without the threat of death by dilution on AIM.

Anyone that invests regularly in LSE small caps constantly expects setbacks and delays and yet we aren't seeing that here - Avacta over the past 12 months or so has constantly delivered and met expectations which is so refreshing and makes the next six months or so that bit more exciting as to what's to come.

As you well know I went from dipping in and out of Avacta until CC took over as CEO, that's when I went long and i doubled and then trebled down when Richard Hughes joined the board. I'm the last one you can accuse of mistiming my investment here.

'When a company says they have a turnkey gold production opportunity, it usually means:

The mine has already been built and operated before (often a past-producing mine).

The processing plant (mill, heap leach, CIL plant, etc.) is either still standing or can be quickly recommissioned.

They can restart production within months rather than years.

Capital expenditure (capex) to restart is relatively low compared to building a new mine from scratch.

There is such thing as intuition. There is such thing as knowledge gained from experience. There is such thing as wisdom.

Good, skilled investors that have followed thousands of companies over years are able to pick winners on an index like AIM with far greater success than others.

If you don't possess the above traits to pick winners and instead must follow the trading price in an attempt to gain an advantage it doesn't mean that others don't possess such traits.

Management haven’t sold??? 210k capital has no link to the executive management, just one non-exec.

Management haven’t sold a bean.

(i) as an investor it’s not all that important to know all the details, what matters is how that translates to the financial metrics which you will be able to to follow and understand but (ii) you’re lucky to have someone like BBN making such an effort to share with you more of the details.

‘Brevity is the soul of wit’