Member Info for HarChris

It's not about being leaky, there are always some close to the company that know of news before it's released and so there is always some level of loading up before positive news - the difference here is liquidity and volume is so low that even a handful of in-the-know (if that's what it is) buys before news shifts the share price considerably.

Wasn’t he boasting about making a small profit dumping at 75p the other day?

It's fair to say that Nick started with more of a scattergun approach but that was a product of the tools he had to work with. He took over with ECR a £2.5m market cap explorer that was very much hanging on for dear life as a solvent business. This is common for small caps on AIM, keep tweaking the business model until it clicks - all the big bitcoin listed companies for example were something else before, it's the same for many sectors.

What Nick managed to successfully achieve was to tighten the strategy as time passed, helped by the gold environment and some well-timed asset sales and acquisitions. ECR are now in a totally different position with the potential to start generating significant cash flows and break out of the cycle they were trapped in of work up assets - raise - work up assets some more - raise.

There's a lot of work to be done still and the market certainly remains doubtful that this new strengthened management team will pull it off but they have engineered a situation where they no longer rely on the markets via bucket shop placings to continue as a going concern and instead have their destiny in their hands.

Still relatively high risk and not for everyone but I'm sure i'm not alone in thinking the risk is well worth the potential reward on offer here.

There are going to be many investors absolutely kicking themselves when Avacta is successful, having got too wrapped up in what 'the market' was telling them rather than objectively assessing the picture emerging in front of their eyes.

Those posters are ex holders who took a big loss and hate Nick T and Mike W, they aren't interested in debate they are just lurking and waiting for any opportunity to stick the knife in. Reply indirectly to counter nonsense or if a post sets you up to share some info yourself but actually trying to reason with them is futile as they aren't here for that, they're just begging to see ECR fail.

There's potentially a lot of shares to be issued in the future but it's also potentially a company making acquisition. That second tranche of 207m shares is only issued if ECR generate over A$5m within the first year and the next lot if over A$10m. And if they do achieve that alongside BM and Raglan there's a very decent chance they'll be able to pay off the CLN with cash (or with a raise at a far higher price). And the warrants are only for a very small amount at 0.35p.

I really do hope this is the end of any shopping spree (and it surely must be) but suddenly we have a company that should have news coming from all directions soon... if gold takes off again alongside the sky's the limit for the share price in 2026.

Agree ShareRookie. Whilst the proof will be in the pudding and it will take a little longer to know for sure what the potential is here Nick's responses in the interview were just about as positive as any of us could have hoped and it answered pretty much all the questions I had at 7am when i first read through the RNS.

I refuse to make quite such a leap but it's certainly reasonable to view all of this as highly auspicious with an ever growing likelihood that all is going swimmingly.

I guess the facts are that all three projects are now being worked up and debt is coming down against an utterly brilliant backdrop. Whether or not things are as good as they could have been given the backdrop is besides the point, the picture is, objectively, vastly improved hence the strengthening share price.

As before we're one major catalyst shy of a meaningful rally.. perhaps the share price action points to it being rather close now.

It's taken years to get to this stage but whilst it previously felt like throwing enough mud at the wall so some will stick they are now putting together a story that's coherent and logical - an Australian-based multi project gold producer like you say.

I got the heads up, a pick of some big farmers with Pfizer and Novartis backpacks staring gormlessly at our posters. Has led to serious size buying.

'Why didn’t they get Raglan news out first to prove something then this'

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Because timings don't always align... Clearly for that reason Nick got in front of the camera quickly to reassure shareholders that all is well with Raglan, he even mentioned the fact that he received many messages first thing on the matter.

If a positive Raglan update had come first there would have been a stronger reaction today but as long as it comes then we'll get that delayed reaction eventually.

'And at the end of this year, i'd expect to be saying to shareholders Raglan's going well, Blue Mountain's in production, Madden's is certainly in production and we're now gearing up to add Salt Bush as the fourth producing site during the course of 2027'

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That's quite the claim from Nick.

For sure, the potential possibilities for Avacta's drugs in combination is almost inexhaustive. But of course that's unlikely whilst an independent company with constrained resources.

I like the way the CLN is structured... ECR has the power to prevent conversion into shares by choosing to redeem the CLN in cash. “Redemption: ECR has the right to redeem the CLN in cash at any time before maturity, subject to giving 30 days’ notice.”

I looked into what this means and this is what I found:

''This is a standard redemption clause in convertible loan notes. It gives the issuer (ECR) the unilateral right to repay the loan in cash and thereby extinguish the noteholder’s right to convert. How it works in practice is the noteholder notifies ECR that they wish to convert the CLN into shares at 0.26p.

ECR can respond by giving 30 days’ notice that they are redeeming the CLN in full in cash. Once ECR pays the cash (principal + accrued interest), the CLN is cancelled and the conversion right disappears. This is a common feature in convertible debt instruments. The noteholder gets the option to convert, but the company retains the option to redeem in cash and block the conversion.'

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So if all comes together as hoped expect the share price to be far higher and ECR raising the funds at that higher price to pay off CLN (minimising dilution) or paying it in cash if they happen to have it from internal cash generation alone.

Just look at this recent trial and the positive headlines it's getting: https://www.curetoday.com/view/elraglusib-combo-doubles-survival-in-pancreatic-cancer

And yet the disease control rate is just 40%, there was no statistical increase in progression free survival (just 5.6 months) and 90% of patients saw a grade 3 (or higher) adverse event. Still this combo therapy is considered a potential step change in treatment for advanced metastatic pancreatic cancer.

The bar is low for ava6103.

If you directed this energy, time and passion into something more productive than constantly rehashing your views and reasonings to an anonymous share bulletin board I imagine you could achieve almost anything. The world’s your oyster!

Bottomzup, my immediate gut instinct was to lean towards the diversionary angle because, well let’s be honest, we’ve been there before with ECR as they spent time trying to land on the right path forward.

But the more I look at this transaction the more it’s clear that this would have been a fair while in the making, a fairly long due diligence process which I suspect has been ongoing for a few months which rules out that angle as they must have been taking a good look at this even before they were full steam ahead at Raglan.

This does increase the risk here and introduces much more dilution down the road but if they get it right it’s a company maker.

I know, rare to see the share price not revert to placing price, especially on a down day for the markets. It's 4p to buy right now.

I assume most are interpreting this to mean no more shares being issued for the foreseeable: ''The funding allows the Company to scale up operations and advance various growth initiatives, whilst deriving maximum benefit from the high commodity price environment. Importantly, this fundraise completes the current equity financial requirements for the Group.''

$1m a month for the last four months plus another few months doesn't come out at £8.5m / $11.5m. It wasn't covering it although I hoped ATM just raised nearer the time with a higher share price to cover the shortfall.

We do need to accept that margins will be being squeezed by soaring oil price.